After entering 2022, the housing loans of banks have been significantly loosened. Not only the lending speed has been accelerated, but also the interest rate has been reduced frequently. At the same time, with the improvement of the credit environment, the activity of the real estate market in many hot cities such as Shanghai is gradually recovering.
Recently, the reporter of China business daily contacted the loan centers of Bank Of China Limited(601988) , Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) , China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) , China Zheshang Bank Co.Ltd(601916) , Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) and Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) and other banks in Shanghai, Jinhua, Hangzhou, Suzhou and Hefei. The staff of many banks replied that the current loan approval and lending speed have been accelerated compared with the second half of 2021.
In addition, since October 2021, the loan interest rates of first and second homes in key cities in China have continued to fall, showing a downward trend in varying degrees. On January 20, 2022, the national loan market ushered in the “interest rate cut”, and the LPR over 5 years was 4.6%, down 5 basis points from the previous period. This is also the first reduction of LPR over 5 years after nearly two years since April 2020.
With the “deregulation” of housing loans and the reduction of interest rates, the trading volume of second-hand housing trading markets in Shanghai and Hangzhou has gradually stopped falling and rebounded. Taking Shanghai as an example, in December 2021, 18000 second-hand houses were sold in Shanghai, with a month on month increase of 19%; The total turnover increased by 25% month on month to 57.4 billion yuan; The average transaction price was 38900 yuan / m2, an increase of 3% month on month.
Chen Wenjing, deputy director of the index division of China Index Research Institute, told reporters: “In order to stabilize the economy in 2022, the real estate market also needs to continue to play the role of ‘stabilizer’, and the market confidence of relevant participants such as home buyers and real estate enterprises needs to be boosted. For the real estate industry, the reduction of loan interest rate will play an important role in alleviating the financing cost of enterprises and the purchase cost of home buyers.”
faster lending
“Now, the lending time of second-hand housing loans has been shortened to about one week, and the approval time after customers submit materials only takes 2 ~ 3 days.” Wu Zhong (a pseudonym), customer manager of Suzhou Branch loan center, recently told reporters that the current lending rate of housing loans has increased a lot compared with previous months.
In fact, the signs of “deregulation” of housing loans have gradually appeared. Most of the above-mentioned bank loan centers have given a reply that “the speed of approval and lending has been accelerated”.
In September 2021, when the reporter contacted the above banks, most of the staff said that “the personal housing loan business has been suspended” and “the lending cycle has been extended due to the insufficient balance of housing loans”. In addition, for the time required for housing loan approval, Wuzhong also told reporters at that time: “it will take at least 1 ~ 2 months.”
Zhang Feng (a pseudonym), regional head of a Chinese real estate intermediary platform in Shanghai, confirmed to reporters: “In the second half of 2021, the lending time of housing loans in Shanghai will take at least 4-5 months. At present, it has been accelerated to 1-2 months. However, the specific lending time still depends on whether the bank’s loan amount is sufficient. Recently, we helped several customers match the banks with sufficient amount, and the lending time is 1-1.5 months.”
The customer manager of the loan center of Shanghai branch also confirmed to the reporter: “the loan will be made in 1 ~ 1.5 months.” In September 2021, it told reporters that the lending time was about half a year. China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) the staff of Hangzhou Branch said: “at present, the customer can lend money in about a week after completing the transfer and other procedures.” Bank Of China Limited(601988) the housing loan lending time of Shanghai Branch has also been reduced from “at least half a year” to “3 ~ 4 months”.
However, the reporter also noted in the interview that the lending speed of some banks has not increased significantly. Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) the customer manager of the loan center of Shanghai Branch said frankly: “there are still a lot of stock loans in the past. Some customers who were successfully approved in September 2021 have not made loans yet. Now the newly applied loans still need to wait a long time to make loans.”
In addition, the staff of Jinhua Branch of Huishang bank replied: “at present, they still do not do second-hand housing loan business, but only first-hand housing loan and mortgage loan.” The staff of Hefei Branch of Huishang bank, who previously said that it had suspended the second-hand housing loan business, also said: “although the second-hand housing loan has been liberalized at present, there are more customers backlog in 2021, and the amount has not been fully liberalized. Now the application still needs to wait for about 5 to 6 months.”
mortgage interest rate cut
“In addition to the accelerated lending rate, the housing loan interest rate has also been reduced.” Wu Zhong said frankly, “at present, the bank’s first loan interest rate of second-hand housing loans is about 5%, which is a significant decrease compared with the previous loan interest rate of more than 6%
In fact, since October 2021, the loan interest rates of the first house and the second house in key cities across the country have continued to fall. Under the policies of various cities, the housing loan interest rate has also shown a downward trend to varying degrees. Data show that from August 2021 to early 2022, the interest rate of the first set of housing loans of most banks has been reduced by 30 basis points, and that of the second set has been reduced by 20 basis points.
For example, after May 2021, many banks in Hangzhou, Ningbo and Suzhou raised mortgage interest rates. Among them, Suzhou raised the loan interest rate by 60BP to 5.65% and 40bp to 6.0% in May. Since the end of July 2021, the loan interest rate of the first house in Suzhou has “exceeded” 6%, and the loan interest rate of the second house has been close to 7%.
However, the reporter recently learned in an interview that the current mortgage interest rate in Suzhou has fallen to about 5%.
On January 20, 2022, the loan market ushered in “interest rate reduction” again. On the same day, the latest data of the national interbank lending center showed that the one-year LPR (quoted interest rate in the loan market) was 3.7%, down 10 basis points from the previous period; LPR over 5 years was 4.6%, down 5 basis points from the previous period.
The impact on individual housing loans, Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, pointed out: “In the LPR interest rate, the five-year interest rate has been reduced by 5 basis points to 4.6%. In the housing loan market, taking the mortgage loan with a loan amount of 1 million yuan and 30-year repayment of equal principal and interest as an example, before the interest rate adjustment, the LPR is 4.65%, and the monthly contribution is 5156 yuan. After the interest rate adjustment, the LPR is 4.6%, and the monthly contribution is 5126 yuan, a decrease of about 30 yuan.”
Chen Wenjing, deputy director of the index division of China Index Research Institute, admitted: “the mortgage interest rate will be reduced by 5 basis points with the LPR. For home buyers, the reduction in monthly repayment is not obvious, and the impact on market expectations may be more prominent.
With the gradual restoration of market expectations, the market of the first and second tier hot cities is expected to take the lead in stabilizing, and the improvement of the sales end is expected to improve the capital of enterprises and promote a virtuous circle of the industry. “
“This interest rate cut will further reduce the financing cost of enterprises and boost their confidence in development.” Chen Wenjing said that in the first half of 2022, the economy is facing great downward pressure, and the downward pressure on real estate investment is also great. It is expected that there is still room for LPR to be reduced during the year. Whether LPR over five years will continue to be reduced still depends on the recovery rhythm of the real estate market and the effect of policy implementation.
the property market has gradually warmed up
With the continuous improvement of the credit environment, the real estate market has gradually warmed up.
In the second half of 2021, Zhang Feng once told reporters: “the tightening of housing loans by banks has had a great impact on the real estate market, especially the second-hand housing market. Many home buyers’ enthusiasm for seeing and buying houses began to decrease due to limited funds, and the second-hand housing landlords are worried that they will not get the balance payment for a long time, and they will prefer to find buyers who can pay the full amount.”
Zhang Feng said: “the acceleration of lending speed, combined with the impact of some current favorable policies, although the current real estate market is still in a stable stage, it has slowly warmed up. In the past month, we have contributed to several transaction cases.”
Liu Ming (a pseudonym), a staff member of a real estate agency in Xuhui District, Shanghai, told reporters: “at present, the verification price of houses has also increased significantly. For example, the previous verification price of houses in a community in Xuhui District was about 7 million yuan, and now the verification price of houses in the same area has risen to 7.5 million yuan or even 8 million yuan.”
It is understood that in July 2021, Shanghai issued a new policy for the second-hand housing market, and the Shanghai real estate transaction management department will verify the listing price of each house based on the real market price. Subsequently, for second-hand housing loans, Shanghai announced the policy of “taking the lowest of the three prices”, requiring Shanghai banks to approve the loan amount according to the lowest price among tax verification pricing, online signing price and bank evaluation price.
In this regard, Liu Ming said: “previously, some customers were unable to apply for the expected loan amount from the bank because the verification price was too low, and they had to give up buying because of the lack of their own funds. With the increase of the verification price, buyers can apply for more loan amount from the bank, thus reducing the capital pressure and helping to promote transactions.”
According to the data provided by Shanghai Lianjia Research Institute, a total of 18000 second-hand houses were sold in Shanghai in December 2021, an increase of 19% month on month; In terms of total turnover, it increased by 25% month on month to 57.4 billion yuan; The average transaction price was 38900 yuan / m2, an increase of 3% month on month.
Although the turnover and total turnover of Shanghai’s second-hand housing market in December 2021 decreased by 54% and 58% respectively year-on-year compared with the same period in 2020, compared with 12000 units whose turnover fell to the lowest level in September 2021, Shanghai’s second-hand housing market has returned to the normal level.
According to the latest statistics released by the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of statistics, from January to December 2021, the investment in real estate development in Shanghai increased by 7.2% over the same period in 2020. The construction area of commercial housing was 166.279 million square meters, an increase of 5.6%, of which the construction area of residential housing was 76.0314 million square meters, a decrease of 1.4%; The sales area of commercial houses was 18.8045 million square meters, an increase of 5.1%, of which the sales area of residential houses was 14.8995 million square meters, an increase of 3.9%.
At the same time, the second-hand housing market in many hot cities in the Yangtze River Delta has gradually stopped falling and picked up. Taking Hangzhou as an example, according to the information released by Kerui, the second-hand housing market in Hangzhou fluctuated greatly in 2021. In the first half of the year, the monthly turnover of second-hand housing in Hangzhou frequently exceeded 10000 units, while the monthly turnover decreased significantly in the second half of the year. Among them, the closure of the credit end leads to the suspension of second-hand housing loans by banks is one of the main reasons.
However, since November 2021, the trading volume of second-hand houses in Hangzhou has ended its “seven consecutive declines”. That month, a total of 3516 second-hand houses were sold in Hangzhou, up 34.5% month on month; The turnover reached 11.5 billion yuan, up 45.6% month on month. In December of that year, the number of second-hand houses signed in Hangzhou was more than 3600, up 5.9% month on month.
For the reasons why the trading volume of second-hand houses in Hangzhou stopped falling and picked up, Kerui analyzed that: “on the one hand, due to the deregulation of the policy, the loan interest rate was reduced to less than 6%, which is close to the market level in June 2021; on the other hand, due to the decline of the landlord’s expectation and the obvious reduction of the listing price, it reached the psychological expectation of the buyers.”
