in 2021, the average price of pork in the national market was 33.61 yuan / kg, a decrease of 36% compared with 2020
On the evening of January 25, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) disclosed the performance forecast for 2021. The company lost 3.5 billion yuan to 4 billion yuan in 2021 and made a profit of 3.24 billion yuan in the same period of last year. Among them, there was a deep loss in pig breeding business.
According to the data, in addition to Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , as of January 25, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) among A-share pig breeding enterprises also announced the performance forecast for 2021. Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) it is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will decrease by more than 70% year-on-year, and Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) will suffer a huge loss of 10 billion. Industry insiders said that pig prices continued to fall in 2021, and the performance of listed pig enterprises generally suffered a "Waterloo". It is expected that the performance will still be under pressure in the first quarter of this year.
performance of many pig enterprises fell
Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) the performance forecast shows that in 2021, the number of pigs sold by the company increased by 39% year-on-year, but the average sales price of commercial fat pigs decreased by 64% year-on-year, resulting in deep losses in the company's pig breeding business.
In fact, the loss of pig breeding business is a common problem faced by listed pig enterprises. According to the data released by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the average price of pork in the national market in 2021 was 33.61 yuan / kg, down 36% from 2020. Pig prices continued to fall, causing the performance of relevant listed companies to suffer a "Waterloo".
According to the performance forecast for 2021, the company expects a loss of 13 billion yuan to 13.8 billion yuan in 2021. During the reporting period, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) sold 13.2174 million pigs (including hairy pigs and fresh products), and the average sales price of hairy pigs was 17.39 yuan / kg, a year-on-year decrease of 48.18%.
Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) said that the price of live pigs fell sharply. At the same time, due to the continuous rise in the price of feed raw materials, the fattening of some pig seedlings purchased by the company and the continuous promotion of pig breeding optimization, the profit of the company's pig breeding business decreased significantly year-on-year, resulting in deep losses.
The performance of "Zhumao" Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) in 2021 is also not optimistic. The company's performance forecast shows that it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 77-80 billion yuan in 2021; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 6.5-7.632 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 70.86% - 76.32%.
Although only three pig companies in A-Shares have disclosed the performance forecast in 2021, according to the data of the third quarterly report, 60% of the listed companies may have a performance loss in 2021.
According to the data, as of the third quarter of 2021, only Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) , Yunnan Shennong Agricultural Industry Group Co.Ltd(605296) and Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) of the 12 pig breeding enterprises were profitable. Among them, Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) and Yunnan Shennong Agricultural Industry Group Co.Ltd(605296) realized net profits of 107 million yuan, 236 million yuan and 229 million yuan respectively in the first three quarters.
In addition to Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) and Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) lost more than 6 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with losses of 6.401 billion yuan and 7.627 billion yuan respectively. Among the loss making enterprises, the smallest loss in the first three quarters was Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) , with a loss of 100 million yuan.
Insiders said that due to the lack of significant improvement in pig prices in the fourth quarter of last year, pig enterprises that lost money in the first three quarters are less likely to turn around their losses in the fourth quarter. It is expected that among the 12 listed pig enterprises, 8 enterprises that lost money in the first three quarters will still maintain a loss in 2021.
the first quarter performance is not optimistic
According to the monitoring data of the national development and Reform Commission, from January 10 to 14, 2022, the national average pig grain price ratio was 5.75:1, which has entered the three-level early warning range of excessive decline set in the working plan for improving the regulation mechanism of government pork reserves and ensuring supply and price stability in the pork market.
According to the monitoring of the market prices of 50 important means of production in 9 categories in the national circulation field by the National Bureau of statistics, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 14 yuan / kg in mid January compared with the first ten days of January, down 6.7% month on month.
In an interview with the China Securities Journal, Li Ming (a pseudonym), the Secretary of a listed pig breeding company, said that the pig price had fallen from the recent high of 18 yuan / kg to 14 yuan / kg, and the whole industry entered a comprehensive loss again.
\u3000\u3000 "It was originally the peak sales season of the industry before the Spring Festival, but because everyone pressed the bar in the early stage and concentrated on the market at this time, there were more pigs, so there was an abnormal phenomenon of not booming in the peak season before the Spring Festival this year. After the Spring Festival, the general sales will be weak. We expect that the price of pig meat will not improve in the first quarter and may continue to fall. There is great pressure on the performance of the industry in the first quarter." Li Ming said.
According to the research report, in terms of time, the inflection point of pig price is expected to be from April to June this year. In the first quarter, under the background of low pig prices, it is expected to accelerate the decontamination, and the cumulative decontamination rate is expected to reach more than 12% by the end of the first quarter. At the same time, under the joint influence of three cycles of supply, demand and inventory, pig prices began to decline significantly, driving the clearing of sow production capacity. The market's expectation of the future reversal of pig cycle will be strengthened again, which will catalyze the performance of the sector.
