After yesterday’s downward market shock, on January 26, the three major indexes collectively rose and rebounded, returning to 3000 points. The gem index once rose more than 1%, and the overall market improved.
However, after the market opened high today, it dived and turned green in the afternoon, and rebounded after the bottom, reflecting that the market investment sentiment is still sawing; In terms of capital, the transaction volume of the two cities fell below trillion for the fourth consecutive day, less than 800 billion yuan.
As of the close, the Shanghai stock index rose 0.66% to close at 3455.67; The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.70% to close at 13780.30; The gem index rose 0.99% to close at 3004.41.
From the perspective of the sector, today’s wind power has strengthened significantly, the silicone sector has been pulled up, the securities sector has been strongly protected, and Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) was once closed; Wind fintech index, prefabricated vegetable index and pharmaceutical index fell by about 2%.
On January 26, the Russian stock market opened higher, and the Russian MOEX index rose 2.57%.
Chen Mengjie, a strategic analyst at YueKai securities, told the interface news that historically, the impact of regional events on A-Shares is limited, and the operation rhythm of A-Shares is still “dominated by me”, which is the main reason for the deep V rebound in the market today.
Chen Mengjie believes that the downside space of the follow-up market is limited and is close to the end of the adjustment. Investors should “look at the long scenery”. It is expected that steady growth in the first quarter is still the main market, and it is expected to take the lead in opening a wave of market dominated by large cap stocks.
\u3000\u3000 “In terms of the winning rate in the past 10 years, the winning rate of the Shanghai composite index is 70% and that of the gem index is 80% in the week before and after the Spring Festival; in terms of the rise and fall, the average increase rate of the Shanghai Composite Index / gem after the Festival is 0.21% / 2.28%, and the performance in the 15 trading days after the festival is significantly superior. Affected by the policy expectations of the two sessions and the event drive, the performance after the festival is significantly better than that before the festival, and A-Shares have a calendar effect.” Chen Mengjie further said.
In terms of allocation ideas, Chen Mengjie suggested that first, pay attention to the performance of large cap stocks in the near future. There is a strong demand for phased reverse switching in large cap stocks. Focus on the main line of steady growth and undervalued value, real estate, building materials, household appliances in the infrastructure and real estate chain, as well as leisure services, food and beverage and other consumer industries that expand domestic demand; Second, pay attention to the performance of small and medium-sized markets throughout the year. This year’s marginal change at the denominator end has supported the trend of small and medium-sized stocks. In the stage of steady growth, we pay attention to the investment direction dominated by expected improvement and relative profit growth, and the energy transformation, high-end manufacturing, digital economy and other directions supported by high-quality transformation and development.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan securities, said that the A-share market has been weak since the beginning of this year, which is in great contrast to China’s strong economic growth indicators. At present, the performance of the stock market is weaker than the economic indicators, which is also a sign of investors’ lack of confidence to a great extent.
“It should be said that the A-share market has certain support from the perspective of policy and capital. The decline of the market still reflects the panic mood. The subsequent trend of A-share is still more likely to fluctuate, but the sustainability of the sharp decline of U.S. stocks is not strong, so investors don’t have to worry too much.” Yang Delong said.
Wu Kaida, chief strategist at deppon securities, predicted that the end of this round of market may occur around January or April, and the steady growth policy will be further overweight in February, and the red envelope market can be expected; However, it should be noted that the market is also affected by the global epidemic, overseas economic situation and the trend of US stocks.
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) said that as the pre holiday market contraction is coming to an end and the monetary policy window period in February is approaching again, holding shares for the holiday is still the best choice at present. It is recommended that investors actively layout the market in the first half of the year. Grasp four main lines from the structure: with the gradual realization of the annual report performance, the growth sector is expected to become the phased main line of the market after the Spring Festival; Securities companies benefiting from the recovery of transactions and the comprehensive registration system; Offline economy represented by catering tourism and commercial retail; Essential consumer goods and the agricultural sector catalysed by the Tonga volcanic eruption.
