On January 26, the three major A-share indexes rose in the morning and fell back, and the Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index turned green in the afternoon; In the afternoon, A-Shares fell further, and the Shanghai index also weakened and turned green. However, later, securities companies and other sectors began to pull up strongly, the market stopped falling and rebounded, and the gem index rose nearly 1% to recover 3000 points. As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 0.66% to 3455.67 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.7% to 13780.3 points, and the gem index rose 0.99% to 3004.41 points.
From the ranking of the major sectors on the rise list on the same day, the brokerage sector has become one of the main forces of bull protection. The wind brokerage index (886054) rose 1.78% throughout the day, with all 49 constituent stocks turning red except Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) suspension, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) (601456. SH) trading limit, Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) (002945. SZ) rising 7.40%, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) (601375. SH) rising 6.59%, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) (601878. SH), Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) (600906. SH) rising more than 4%.
In terms of news, according to the incomplete statistics of the reporter, 15 listed securities companies have released the annual performance forecast or performance express in 2021. Among them, 13 securities companies are expected to increase their revenue and return to their parent net profit, including 10 increase in advance, 3 increase slightly, and the remaining 2 securities companies are expected to turn around their losses.
In terms of specific performance, the industry leader Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (600030. SH) is expected to have an annual revenue of 76.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 22.979 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.2%. In addition, the two securities companies China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) (600999. SH) and Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) (601211. SH) also achieved revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company of more than 10 billion yuan. In terms of growth rate, the growth rate of revenue of 2 companies exceeded 30%, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent companies of 12 companies exceeded 30%.
In this regard, some people in the industry believe that from the comprehensive market performance of the third quarterly report, the performance of public funds, market trading volume and the scale of funds raised by investment banks, most listed securities companies have a high probability of achieving high growth in 2021.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) also pointed out that at present, the public offering business has entered a period of rapid growth and contributed to the main increment of asset management revenue of securities companies. It is expected that the asset management revenue of listed securities companies will increase by 22.4% year-on-year in 2021. At the same time, according to the year-on-year increase of 25% to 1.1 trillion yuan in the daily average stock based turnover in 2021, it can be considered that the income of securities companies selling financial products on a commission basis will continue to increase and alleviate the marginal downward impact of commission rate. Therefore, it is expected that the brokerage business income of listed securities companies will increase by 20.8% year-on-year. In terms of investment banking, the amount of IPO, refinancing and corporate bond financing in 2021 increased by 15.5%, 6.4% and 2.9% year-on-year respectively to 542.7 billion yuan, 1.3 trillion yuan and 18.5 trillion yuan. It is expected that the income of investment banking will remain stable year-on-year.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) admitted that although the fundamentals of listed securities companies are excellent and the performance of 2021 annual report may exceed expectations, the overall valuation is still at a historical low. In the first three quarters of 2021, all listed securities companies achieved profits, with a total operating revenue of 469.8 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 148.4 billion yuan, an increase of 23% year-on-year; The corresponding PE from 2021 to 2022 is 17.3 / 14.4 times, and the corresponding Pb is 1.8 / 1.6 times. The valuation center is below the historical median.
Looking forward to the development of the industry in 2022, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said that it is more optimistic about the institutional business derived from wealth management in the future: the brokerage index rose by 1.88% in the fourth quarter of 2021, and the proportion of positions in a single quarter continued to rise to 3.82%. With the high growth of institutional business brought by wealth management business gradually recognized by the market, it can be considered that this industrial chain will still make a great contribution to the performance of securities companies in the future. Continue to recommend the investment logic of the main line of institutional business derived from wealth management.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) further pointed out that under the setting tone of the “steady growth” policy, the liquidity has gradually widened, superimposed on the catalysis of capital market reform and the continuous improvement of the profitability of the securities industry. It is expected that the market of sector valuation repair will continue. Leading securities companies with leading institutional mechanisms and comprehensive customer service capabilities and characteristic companies with outstanding differentiation advantages in subdivided fields will come to the fore.
