2022 is similar to 2016, and there is little possibility of a bear market.
Now it’s not the bottom, it’s almost the same.
New energy vehicles may be a huge track once in ten years. There is no reason not to have some historic bull stocks, and many companies appear in China.
On January 26, Zhuang Tao, the chairman of Panjing investment, a private placement tycoon, made a rare voice and made a detailed interpretation of the recent market situation and the market outlook in 2022.
According to sources, after the Spring Festival, the new products managed by Zhuang Tao will be sold in three major banks China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) and China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) . Against the background of outstanding performance in the past two consecutive years, Zhuangtao’s new products may become private placement hot money again.
2022 is similar to 2016
For the recent sharp adjustment of a shares, Zhuang Tao believes that there are four reasons.
First, before that, the market style was too extreme. In the past three years, the growth style has been outstanding, the fund has a lot of returns, things will turn around when they reach the extreme, and the return of the mean value is the inevitable law of the market;
Second, the “steady growth” sector has made great efforts recently. The position adjustment and stock exchange of institutions also made the performance of track growth stocks poor, but the financial and real estate direction did not form a systematic market, resulting in the decline of the market;
Third, the poor performance of peripheral stock markets such as US stocks and Hong Kong stocks has had a certain impact on a shares;
Fourth, there are few tracks and bull stocks with huge increase and obvious profit effect.
Zhuang Tao said that 2022 is quite similar to 2016 because of the huge gains in previous years. At the same time, there is no track and stock with big market. However, Zhuang Tao believes that there is little possibility of a bear market in 2022, and the decline at the beginning of the year does not mean that the performance of the whole year is not good.
“Systemic bear markets, such as 2004, 2008, 2011 and 2018, are closely related to liquidity tightening. 2022 is not only not tightening, on the contrary, in a state of steady economic growth, liquidity can only be relaxed but not tight. Now it is only the initial stage of easing, and it has not yet reached the time of comprehensive easing.” “In the context of loose liquidity, there is no need to worry,” Zhuang Tao said
Zhuang Tao said that from the current situation of institutional investors, has fallen more fully. If there is no extreme black swan event, “it is almost the same if it is not the bottom”, the market will gradually experience four stages of “bottoming stabilization shock differentiation”.
optimistic about medicine and new energy vehicles
For the next market style, Zhuang Tao believes that the agitation of cyclical stocks will not be ruled out, but there will not be a particularly big opportunity in this direction in the medium term.
Specific to the industry, Zhuang Tao believes that pharmaceutical stocks are the only track to supply and create demand, and pharmaceutical stocks have opportunities. in the long run, the risks of the pharmaceutical sector have been released in large quantities; In the short term, there is still a little uncertainty. “It is impossible for all innovative drugs to have no space, and it is impossible for the purchase prices of large categories of drugs to be limited.” In terms of operation, Zhuang Tao believes that he can build positions patiently, select stocks patiently and buy on the right.
In the field of new energy, Zhuang Tao is very optimistic about new energy vehicles. From historical experience, there will be a big theme every once in a while, such as smart phones. At present, new energy vehicles are still in a very early position and the penetration rate is still very low. This may be a huge track once in more than ten years. There is no reason not to have some historic bull stocks, and many companies have appeared in China.
For photovoltaic, Zhuang Tao believes that the beta attribute of this sector is strong, with a trend of homogenization, and the “internal roll” is serious. There may be some opportunities downstream of silicon.
In terms of semiconductors, Zhuang Tao believes that valuation is the main problem of stock selection at present.
However, Zhuang Tao also stressed that “in the past two years, we have made money by industry and style, and this year we are all fighting for stock selection”.
hot money is expected to appear after the Spring Festival
Since the beginning of 2022, the issuance of new funds has not been satisfactory, and the burst funds in the public fund market are rare. However, the private placement industry still ushered in some hot money.
Previously, Chen Qin, the fund manager of Panjing investment, sold new products. According to the channel, Panjing’s issuance quota is not much, but it is still hot robbed by the channel, and the new product was robbed only one minute after it was launched. In addition, Cui tongkui, the new fund manager of Panjing investment, has just sold its products in Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) and Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) . Sources revealed that Cui tongkui’s products were welcomed by the market, with a total raising scale of about 4 billion yuan.
It is reported that after the Spring Festival, the new products managed by Zhuang Tao will be sold in China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) and China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) . Channel people believe that under the background of outstanding performance in the past two consecutive years, Zhuangtao new products may become private hot money products again.
