On Tuesday, A-Shares fell sharply again. The three major stock indexes opened low and walked low, with a decline of more than 2.5%. The Shanghai index fell 3500 points and the gem index fell below 3000 points.
On the disk, the market trading was relatively sluggish, with a total turnover of 936.8 billion yuan in Shanghai and Shenzhen, less than 1 trillion yuan for the third consecutive trading day. This is in contrast to the V-shaped trend of U.S. stocks falling first and then rising overnight, the mild decline in the Asia Pacific market yesterday and the collective high opening of European stock markets.
Market participants believe that the weak capital is the main and direct reason for the recent A-share adjustment. Other institutions are optimistic that the end of the market is gradually approaching.
disk characteristics: high-end stocks fell collectively
Yesterday, the market fell unilaterally throughout the day, and the major indexes fell by more than 2.5%, and basically closed at the lowest point of the day. On the disk, 31 shenwanyi industries are green across the board. In terms of concept stocks, only a few sectors such as precious metals and airports rose slightly, while all other sectors fell. Among all a shares, less than 300 stocks rose and more than 4000 stocks fell.
The theme sectors were collectively adjusted, and related sectors such as yuanuniverse and cloud games led the decline, while individual stocks such as Zhejiang Century Huatong Group Co.Ltd(002602) , Inmyshow Digital Technology (Group) Co.Ltd(600556) led the decline. Covid-19 detection sector fell sharply, Shanghai Kaikai Industry Company Limited(600272) , Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) , Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) and other early hot high-level stocks fell by the limit.
The annual main line new energy concept in 2021 has been continuously adjusted since the beginning of the year. The new energy index fell by 3% on Tuesday, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) and so on.
On the disk, precious metal sectors with only risk aversion rose against the trend, Hunan Gold Corporation Limited(002155) limit, Western Region Gold Co.Ltd(601069) , Shandong Humon Smelting Co.Ltd(002237) , Zhongjin Gold Corp.Ltd(600489) and so on.
market view: the "incoming water" of incremental funds is insufficient
Why did the market fall sharply? In this regard, some market participants believe that the capital performance of the A-share market itself is weak, or it is one of the main and direct factors for the continuous adjustment of the market in the past two weeks.
In terms of incremental funds, the issuance of funds at the beginning of this year was obviously cold, and the scale of incremental funds was much lower than that in the same period last year. The data show that according to the statistics based on the establishment date of the fund, it can be found that the issuance share of the newly established fund has only been 76.744 billion since this year. The average monthly issuance share of active funds in 2021 was 248.429 billion, of which 490.14 billion were issued in January 2021. The cold at the beginning of the year when the fund was issued and the weakness of the target of heavy positions of the fund formed negative expectations for subsequent incremental funds.
At the same time, A-share stock funds also outflow to a certain extent. According to the data, as of January 24, the financing balance of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets totaled 1674 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.502 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day. Since 2022, the total financing balance of the two cities has continued to decline.
In addition to the capital of a shares, other market factors also disturb the short-term market sentiment. For example, the performance of some high boom track stocks represented by new energy is less than expected, which has become one of the catalytic factors for the short-term downturn of the market.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the strategy team said that since this year, the rapid adjustment of high-level "holding stocks" has successively induced investors to speed up and reduce their positions in "high cut low" trading. New energy vehicles, photovoltaic, semiconductor, military and other theme sectors have generally fallen by more than 10% since the beginning of the year.
Therefore, the recent anxiety about the negative resonance of overseas stock markets and the failure of performance to meet expectations has further accelerated the venting of market sentiment. In the current performance forecast window period, under the low market sentiment, the average rise and fall of the performance "pre Hi" company in the two trading days after the disclosure of the performance forecast is only 0.4% to - 0.3%, while the average rise and fall of the "early warning" company is - 1.7% to - 1.1%.
institutional Outlook: the market bottom is gradually approaching
From the perspective of current securities companies, most institutions are not pessimistic about the post holiday market and believe that A-Shares have their own running rhythm.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that in the future, with the continuous introduction of the "steady growth" policy, the possible improvement of forward-looking indicators and the gradual stabilization of economic growth, market sentiment is also expected to repair. In terms of style, "steady growth" is still the main line of the future stage. The space for sharp decline in growth style may also be relatively limited, and the "steady growth" style may last until the end of the first quarter.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) the securities strategy team said that after the Spring Festival, the market risk appetite may improve, and the issuance of new funds is expected to pick up. If the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve next week makes the expectation of raising interest rates bearish, it is expected to form a favorable time window after the festival. It is suggested that investors cherish and grasp the upcoming rebound market.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the end of sentiment is coming, and it is expected that market funds will resume inflow; The market bottom is gradually approaching. It is suggested to continue to focus on the "two low" layout of blue chips to meet the starting point of the market in the first half of the year.
