On January 25, the A-share fluctuated downward, the three major indexes fell by more than 2% successively, and the gem fell below the 3000 point mark.
Overall, affected by the disturbance of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, A-Shares fell. As of the close, the stock index fell 2.58% to 3433.06 points; The Shenzhen composite index fell 2.83% to 13683.89 points; The record index fell 2.67% to 2974.96 points.
Market participants believe that the sharp decline of A-Shares is mainly restrained by the risk appetite of peripheral risk events, which will not interfere with the fundamental expectation of a shares. In the medium and long term, China's economy remains stable and positive, the macro policy is stable and positive, the capital is expected to remain abundant, the reform of the capital market continues to advance, and the capital market is expected to achieve stability and progress.
fundamentals have not changed
Chen Hongbin, chief economist of Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) pointed out that the recent decline of A-Shares is mainly affected by external factors. First, the fluctuation of external markets caused by geographical factors will ease the emotional panic of the market with the easing of geographical factors; Second, the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates does not need to be overly pessimistic for the Chinese market. In the current foreign exchange market, the strong appreciation of RMB has hedged off the expectation that the US dollar may raise interest rates in the next step, and foreign investors continue to be optimistic about the Chinese market; Third, the decline in economic growth in the fourth quarter triggered concerns about high-quality economic development. In fact, in the first quarter of this year, China's economy stabilized significantly, monetary policy remained loose and fiscal policy remained stable. It is expected that China's economy will gradually enter a strong channel in the second and third quarters; Fourth, the repeated covid-19 epidemic has exacerbated the panic in the market. In fact, China's epidemic control is a leading level in the world.
On the whole, the current internal and external environment is becoming more complex and severe, but the development trend of China's economy is stable and good for a long time has not changed, more positive structural changes are taking place in the capital market, and the fundamentals of the long-term stable and stable operation of China's capital market have not changed.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) the strategy team also believes that although the short-term oversold rebound may occur at any time, it still needs to be patient for the medium-term market recovery.
First, the latest economic data of China in 2021 released by the National Bureau of statistics shows that in 2021, China's gross domestic product (GDP) was 114367 billion yuan, breaking the 110 trillion yuan mark for the first time, and the total economic output exceeded one million billion yuan for two consecutive years; The GDP growth rate was 8.1%, much higher than the target of more than 6% set by the government at the beginning of the year. Looking forward to 2022, 2022 will be a year when China's economy will gradually return to normal operation. The trend of China's sustained economic recovery and development has not changed, the factors that maintain the economic operation within a reasonable range and the conditions supporting high-quality development have not changed. The economy is expected to achieve steady progress throughout the year.
Second, the macro policy is expected to be stable and positive. The central economic work conference in December 2021 clearly pointed out that we should focus on stability and seek progress in stability, ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure and speed up the progress of expenditure. In terms of fiscal policy, the newly increased special bond amount of 1.46 trillion in 2022 has been issued in advance, and the scale of tax reduction and fee reduction is expected to be no less than 1 trillion yuan throughout the year. In terms of monetary policy, the central bank lowered the quoted interest rate (LPR) of one-year loan market by 5 basis points on December 20, and then lowered the bid winning interest rate of medium-term lending facility (MLF) and open market reverse repo by 10 basis points on January 17, 2022, following the RRR reduction on December 15, 2021. In terms of industrial policies, a number of policies and plans focusing on high-quality development, such as dual carbon and digital economy, have been issued one after another to continue to promote economic transformation and upgrading.
Third, the market capital is expected to remain abundant. Under the background of real estate regulation policies, residents' savings funds will continue to enter the market through public funds and other channels, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) it is estimated that the net inflow of public funds will be 850 billion yuan in 2022. In addition, the inflow of overseas funds may slow down in the short term due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase and table contraction, but it will continue to flow in the long term, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) it is estimated that the inflow of foreign capital will be 320 billion yuan in 2022.
Fourth, capital market reform continued to advance. At the 2022 system work conference of the CSRC, it was stressed that we should comprehensively deepen the reform of the capital market, promote it in depth, adhere to the principle of stability, and earnestly maintain the stable and healthy development of the capital market. Strengthen macro research and judgment and policy coordination, and improve the accountability system for risk prevention, early warning and disposal. Steadily promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market and promote the overall balance and coordinated development of investment and financing. We will improve the expected guidance mechanism of the capital market and create a good environment for the smooth operation of the market.
Fifth, the overall market valuation is at a reasonable level. Among the 31 Tier-1 industries in Shenwan, the current dynamic P / E ratio of 19 industries is below the historical quantile of 50%.
the performance is expected to increase, the number of listed companies is increasing, and the net profit of these industries is at the top
The A-share market fell into continuous adjustment, and some voices in the market worried that the annual report performance of Listed Companies in 2021 was lower than expected. In fact, such concerns are unnecessary.
According to the data, as of January 25, 2022, 563 companies in Shenzhen have disclosed the performance forecast of 2021. Among them, 492 companies are expected to make profits, accounting for 87% of the number of companies that disclose performance forecasts. The performance of 430 companies increased in advance, accounting for more than 70%. 58 companies turned losses into profits. The average net profit is expected to reach 404 million yuan to 471 million yuan, an increase of 61% to 87% year-on-year in 2020.
First, the net profit attributable to the parent company. Among the above 563 listed companies in Shenzhen, 112 companies are expected to have a net profit of more than 500 million yuan; 54 companies are expected to have a net profit of more than 1 billion yuan; Six companies are expected to have a net profit of more than 5 billion yuan. Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) are expected to achieve the highest net profit in 2021, with net profits of more than 25.7 billion yuan, 9.9 billion yuan and 7.85 billion yuan respectively.
Second, the growth of net profit attributable to parent company. Among the above 563 listed companies in Shenzhen, 181 companies are expected to increase their net profit by more than 100% year-on-year in 2021; 45 companies are expected to exceed 300%; 13 companies are expected to exceed 1000%. Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , Guangdong Tonze Electric Co.Ltd(002759) , Jiangsu Yida Chemical Co.Ltd(300721) are expected to achieve the highest net profit growth in 2021, with net profit growth of more than 7022%, 6593% and 3191% respectively.
Third, industry characteristics. The average net profit scale of iron and steel, mining, building materials, non-ferrous metals and electronics industries ranks first, and the average net profit growth of non bank finance, computer, real estate, electrical equipment and chemical industry ranks first. Among the above 563 listed companies in Shenzhen, 89 companies belong to the chemical industry, and the average net profit is expected to exceed 652 million yuan, with an average increase of more than 254.21%; 72 belong to the mechanical equipment industry, and the average net profit is expected to exceed 267 million yuan, with an average increase of more than 54.96%.
according to the specific analysis, the market ecology of Shenzhen has undergone positive changes.
First, give full play to the function of direct financing and continuously release the vitality of the market.
Benefiting from the implementation and stable operation of the reform measures such as the reform of the gem and the pilot registration system, the merger of the main board and the small and medium-sized board, the vitality of the refinancing market in Shenzhen has been continuously released, and the stable growth trend will be maintained on the basis of achieving higher growth in 2020. In 2021, Shenzhen company implemented a total of 371 refinancing orders, with a year-on-year increase of 42.69%, and the total financing amount was 529.947 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35.40%. Through various refinancing means, Shenzhen company has continuously supported service scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading. The refinancing amount of manufacturing enterprises reached 355.18 billion yuan, accounting for 67.02%. Small and medium-sized companies in Shenzhen fully enjoy the convenience of direct financing in the capital market. Nearly a quarter of the companies whose refinancing has been completed have a market value of less than 5 billion yuan, effectively helping to alleviate the problem of difficult and expensive financing of small and medium-sized enterprises.
Second, equity incentive and employee stock ownership plan stimulate the driving force of innovation and development and promote high-quality development. Equity incentive and employee stock ownership plan are important benefit sharing mechanisms of listed companies, which promote the deep binding between innovative talents and the development of the company, effectively enhance the cohesion of employees and enhance the competitiveness of the company. In 2021, Shenzhen listed companies launched 419 equity incentive plans, involving 6317746200 shares; 141 employee stock ownership plans were launched, involving a total capital of 20.42 billion yuan and 1856.495 million shares. According to statistics, for the companies implementing equity incentive in Shenzhen in 2020, excluding individual companies, the operating revenue in the first three quarters of 2020 and 2021 increased by 12.17% and 38.75% respectively year-on-year, and the net profit increased by 44.79% and 26.75% respectively year-on-year. The income scale and profitability are higher than the average level of Shenzhen, indicating that equity incentive can effectively tap the development potential of the company.
