On January 24, the shock of overseas stock markets intensified. France’s CAC40 index and Germany’s DAX index both fell nearly 4%, while the US NASDAQ index fell more than 4% during the session, and finally closed up 0.63%. On January 25, the A-share market opened low and went low. The Shanghai index, Shenzhen Component Index and gem index fell by 2.58%, 2.83% and 2.67% respectively. The turnover of Shanghai stock market was 383.728 billion yuan and that of Shenzhen stock market was 553.134 billion yuan.
Analysts said that affected by market sentiment, A-Shares ushered in an adjustment. At present, the fundamentals are stable, the expectation of loose liquidity is increasing, and the overall good trend of the market does not change. Instead, the adjustment is a better time to build and increase positions.
the fluctuation of mood affects the market
On January 25, the A-share market opened low and went low. The Shanghai index fell below 3500 points and the gem index fell below 3000 points. There were about 270 rising stocks on the day, of which 32 stocks rose by the limit, the number of falling stocks exceeded 4300, and 80 stocks fell by the limit.
Shenwanyi industry fell across the board, the banking industry with the smallest decline fell by 1.68%, and the media, comprehensive and coal industries led the decline, falling by 6.09%, 5.09% and 4.72% respectively. A number of early popular stocks such as Shanghai Kaikai Industry Company Limited(600272) , Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Bank of Lanzhou, Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) fell by the limit.
Data show that as of the closing of the 25th, the total market value of A-Shares was 91.54 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.65 trillion yuan compared with the previous trading day.
For the reasons for the market decline on the 25th, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) chief strategic analyst Zheng Xiaoxia said that the suppression of overseas risk events superimposed the market sentiment of A-Shares itself was the main reason for the decline on the 25th.
Xia Fengguang, manager of private placement fund paipai.com, said that there are probably two reasons for the poor trend of the A-share market in the near future: the first is the impact of overseas markets. Under the background of the expected warming of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, there have been continuous adjustments in the US and even European stock markets. The NASDAQ index has fallen by more than 10% since January, which has a certain psychological impact on A-shares; The second is the rapid cooling of early market hotspots such as new energy, carbon neutralization and metauniverse, with a low profit-making effect, which has a great impact on market confidence. At present, China’s policy and market fundamentals have not changed much, and the decline comes more from the ups and downs of sentiment.
focus on the main line of “steady growth” in the future
From the perspective of funds, the data show that the net outflow of funds from the north on January 25 was 3.574 billion yuan, and the cumulative net inflow of funds from the north since January was 42.725 billion yuan.
The main funds still maintain a net outflow. The data show that on January 25, the net outflow of main funds in the two cities was 63.024 billion yuan, which has been in the state of net outflow for 33 consecutive trading days. 3035 stocks had a net outflow of main funds and 1537 stocks had a net inflow of main funds.
From the perspective of the main funds of the industry, the data showed that on the 25th, shenwanyi industry had a net outflow of main funds, with the largest net outflow of main funds in computer, pharmaceutical, biological and electronic industries, with a net outflow of 9.168 billion yuan, 6.893 billion yuan and 4.444 billion yuan respectively. The textile and garment industry with the least net outflow of main funds had a net outflow of 133 million yuan.
For the future market of a shares, Xia Fengguang said that after the interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve in January, the bottom of U.S. stocks may be found, and A-Shares should be able to rise synchronously before and after the Spring Festival.
Zheng Xiaoxia predicted that with the end of the adjustment of US stocks and the elimination of external risk preference impact factors, A-Shares are expected to rebound in spring with the support of stable growth policies. When the short-term market risk appetite is restrained, the allocation cost performance of the undervalued sector is improved. As the adjustment is coming to an end, the four investment main lines after the spring market are more worthy of attention: first, the growth main line with high valuation elasticity under the support of loose monetary policy and liquidity can still expect the growth style to “pull out the valuation” in the spring market; Second, policies are implemented intensively, and there are also allocation opportunities for the main line of steady growth; Third, with the performance of the spring market, the securities companies and the real estate sector with continuous marginal improvement of policies; Fourth, the consumer sector followed the rise, mainly looking for opportunities along the price rise chain. In the theme investment direction, we can pay attention to the concepts of digital economy and state-owned enterprise reform.
Wang Hanfeng, chief strategist of China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that in the future, with the continuous introduction of “steady growth” policy details, the improvement of economic indicators and the gradual stabilization of China’s economic growth, market sentiment is also expected to be repaired. In terms of style, “steady growth” is still the main line of the future stage, and the market’s pursuit of this main line may continue until about the end of the first quarter. The space for substantial adjustment of growth style may be relatively limited, but there is no hurry to copy the bottom in the near future.
