As one of the hottest tracks in 2021, the performance of lithium battery concept stocks is particularly beautiful.
According to the reporter's preliminary statistics, as of the closing on January 25, a total of 100 lithium battery concept listed companies have issued performance forecasts for 2021, with 94 performance forecasts.
On January 25, Ganfeng lithium, a lithium battery giant, released a performance forecast, saying that the annual net profit is expected to be 4.8 billion yuan to 5.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 368.45% to 436.76%, and the annual net profit after deduction of non-profit is expected to be 2.9 billion yuan to 3.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 621% to 795.04%.
For the reasons for the performance growth, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) said that with the rapid development of new energy vehicles and energy storage industry, the demand for lithium salt from downstream customers increased strongly, the production and sales volume of lithium salt products increased and the product price continued to rise. At the same time, new projects in the lithium battery sector were put into production and the production capacity was gradually released.
In 2022, the "madness" of the lithium battery industry chain continues.
On the one hand, the upstream enterprises of the industrial chain accelerate the "ore grab", on the other hand, the downstream enterprises strive to expand production, and the large-scale expansion of power batteries drives the "full horsepower" of lithium salt related products.
In response, Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) Qu Yinfei, a lithium analyst at the new energy business department, told the Securities Daily that the global demand for new energy vehicles is substantial, the emergence of many high-quality models and the obvious improvement of consumers' acceptance of new energy vehicles, and the global subsidy policy continues to promote the large volume of new energy vehicles, which are the strong support of demand, The strong demand will drive the activity of the whole lithium battery industry chain.
94 lithium battery concept stocks
performance forecast
How "Crazy" lithium concept stocks are may be explored from the changes in the secondary market.
According to the data, the lithium battery index rose 77.1% in 2021. Over the same period, the Shanghai index rose by only 4.8%. The lithium battery index also rose sharply in 2020 and 2019, up 39.02% and 22.71% respectively.
The "madness" of the secondary market is not a false fire. The demand for lithium batteries is reflected in the performance forecast of Listed Companies in the upstream and downstream industry chain in 2021. As of the closing on January 25, a total of 100 lithium battery concept listed companies have issued performance forecasts for 2021, of which 86 listed companies have increased their performance in advance and 8 companies have reversed their losses year-on-year.
Among the listed companies in the "lithium battery circle", doubling the performance is not a myth. On January 24, Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) announced that the net profit in 2021 is expected to be 350 million yuan to 450 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2343.03% to 3041.03%.
Zangger mining expects to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.4 billion yuan to 1.45 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 511.65% to 533.5%.
Enterprises such as Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) also showed strong performance. According to the announcement of Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to shareholders of 890 million yuan to 940 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 211.20% to 228.68%. Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) said that the year-on-year increase in net profit was due to the greater contribution of the lithium battery material project of the subsidiary.
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) also announced that the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 3.7 billion yuan to 4.2 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 217.64% to 260.56%.
"In 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 3.4 million, with an increase rate of more than 150%, which greatly increased the demand for lithium batteries." Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the automotive industry innovation research center of Northern University of technology, told the Securities Daily that in addition to the revenue growth of lithium battery enterprises, the revenue of suppliers in the upstream and downstream industrial chain of lithium batteries also surged.
According to Zhang Xiang, although the lithium battery industry has erupted, this trend will continue in the foreseeable future. According to Zhang Xiang's prediction, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 5 million in 2022, which will continue to stimulate the upstream and downstream demand of the lithium battery industry.
upstream enterprises accelerate "mining"
fierce competition for lithium resources
After the closing on January 24, the State Council officially issued the comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction in the 14th five year plan, which made it clear that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales of new vehicles; By 2025, the proportion of non fossil energy in total energy consumption will reach about 20%.
In 2022, the "madness" of the lithium battery industry chain has increased unabated, and lithium battery enterprises have started a big "mine grab".
Recently, Byd Company Limited(002594) spent nearly 400 million yuan to obtain the quota of 80000 tons of lithium production in Chile; Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) won 49% equity of Xinghua lithium salt with 200 million yuan; Jinyuan Ep Co.Ltd(000546) after the cross-border layout of 10000 ton lithium salt project, it was announced that it would accelerate the development of overseas lithium resource industry chain.
In fact, since 2021, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) have invested heavily in lithium resources overseas.
"Father of lithium battery" goodinaf once said publicly that lithium resources are no less important than strategic resources such as oil.
Although the development of new energy vehicle industry is in full swing, China has little lithium resource reserves, and it is difficult to mine. Lithium salts such as lithium carbonate are highly dependent on imported lithium minerals.
"Actively distributing upstream products can effectively regulate their own production costs, improve the anti risk ability of enterprises and ensure the smooth progress of production and delivery." Qu Yinfei said.
Minsheng Securities Research Report believes that the competition for lithium resources is white hot, and the margin of global circulating lithium resources is tightened, which may indicate that lithium prices will remain high in the future. Although the absolute amount of lithium concentrate circulating in the spot market will increase in the future, the proportion will be tightened at the margin. In 2021, the proportion of global lithium resources not locked by underwriting accounted for about 18%, mainly from Qinghai Salt Lake, Pilbara and Galaxy resources in Western Australia and some loose orders in South America salt lake. It is expected that the proportion of global lithium resources not locked will drop to 11% by 2024.
downstream enterprises actively expand production
the industry as a whole still has an imbalance between supply and demand
From 2021 to the beginning of 2022, the development speed of new energy vehicle industry is higher than expected. Lithium battery related companies such as power batteries are expanding their production wildly, and even many companies cross into this industry.
First, the leading lithium battery enterprises represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) continue to expand their production and maintain the trend of large-scale expansion.
It is understood that Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) plans to invest 30.521 billion yuan to build Jingmen power energy storage battery industrial park with an annual output of 152.61gwh (including the original project); Beehive energy proposes to increase the production capacity planning target to 600gwh in 2025; Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) . Lishen battery also released an investment plan of more than 10 billion yuan.
The expansion of lithium battery leaders further drives the demand for lithium salt related materials.
According to the preliminary statistics of the reporter of Securities Daily, since 2021, more than 20 listed companies, including Zangger mining, Sichuan Development Lomon Co.Ltd(002312) , Ningxia Zhongyin Cashmere Co.Ltd(000982) , Yibin Tianyuan Group Co.Ltd(002386) , have issued production expansion plans for lithium salt and other projects.
"The high prospect of terminal products urges enterprises to continuously expand production to deal with the problem of insufficient supply caused by rising demand. Actively expanding production can effectively improve the market share of enterprises." Qu Yinfei said that the rapid development of global new energy vehicles is highly deterministic, and the demand for upstream raw materials remains rigid for a long time. In the process of the rapid rise of global new energy vehicle production and sales, only when the battery and its materials are rapidly scaled up can they support this growing future market.
Although many companies are actively expanding production, the industry as a whole is still in a state of imbalance between supply and demand. Taking lithium carbonate as an example, the price has soared by more than 4 times in 2021 and is still rising in 2022.
Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) according to the latest data, the average price of lithium battery is 366000 yuan / ton, and the average price of industrial grade is 351500 yuan / ton. The contradiction between supply and demand cannot be adjusted temporarily, and the market is still rising.
The main reason for the sharp rise in prices is that the supply of products is in short supply.
In this regard, Qu Yinfei said that at present, the profits of the industrial chain are excessively concentrated on the resource side, so it is necessary to increase capital expenditure to solve the supply problem in the global market, so as to keep the prices of battery materials relatively stable. The balance of profits will drive the development enthusiasm of the industrial chain and make the lithium battery industry chain develop healthily, stably and orderly.
