Today (January 26), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high across the board. After the inertial upward rush, the stock indexes gradually fell back and stabilized and rose again. Then they encountered repeated shocks, and a wave of diving rhythm appeared in the three major stock indexes near noon. From the disk point of view, the rise and fall of industry and concept sectors are different. Funds try to find opportunities in the decline. The performance of four sectors such as power, natural gas and agriculture is relatively resistant to decline, and the local profit-making effect is poor.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pointed out that although there is a trade-off between holding shares and holding money for the Spring Festival holiday, there are no obvious negative factors in China. The downward performance has become the consensus expectation of the market and will not become the core factor leading the market. At present, China’s policy is also in the stage of continuous easing. With the interest rate cut and the decline of LPR, the bill interest rate has increased significantly recently, indicating that the credit has gradually stabilized and rebounded. At the end of the adjustment, there is no need to be too pessimistic and look for opportunities in the decline.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[topic I] power
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) mentioned that under the goals of “carbon peak” in 2030 and “carbon neutralization” in 2060, the energy field is the main battlefield of China’s carbon emission reduction, and the power grid is the hub to promote energy transformation and realize the national “double carbon” strategy. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the total investment in the power grid is expected to reach 3 trillion yuan, of which the State Grid plans to invest 350 billion US dollars (about 2.23 trillion yuan) to promote the transformation of the power grid; The construction of China Southern Power Grid will plan to invest about 670 billion yuan to speed up the construction of digital power grid and modern power grid. At the same time, the proportion of intelligence in power grid investment has gradually increased. According to the general report of the intelligent planning of the State Grid, in the third stage, the State Grid continued to increase the scale of intelligent investment in transmission, transformation and distribution.
Guosheng Securities believes that with the continuous improvement of the policy environment of the power engineering industry chain and the continuous accumulation of financial resources, the relevant leaders are expected to accelerate growth. In addition to UHV construction, other suggestions focus on: 1) power supply side: the development of scenery and green power in the 14th five year plan is accelerated, the new energy engineering business is expected to usher in sustained high growth, and the leading position of energy base is strengthened. 2) Distribution network side: with the increase of new energy consumption demand and the acceleration of distributed energy construction, the distribution network is expected to become one of the key investment points of the power grid in the future (the distribution network accounts for about 50% in the “14th five year plan” investment plan of China Southern Power Grid). 3) Energy storage: according to the relevant planning of the 14th five year plan, compared with the 13th five year plan, the cumulative installed capacity of pumped storage is doubled, and the installed capacity of new energy storage is 10 times. The energy storage industry is expected to usher in rapid development in the 14th five year plan.
From the perspective of investment suggestions, the institution further analyzed and continued to recommend the core targets for the construction of new energy power system, focused on and recommended the leaders Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) and China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) of UHV and green power construction and operation of central enterprises, continued to develop the growth leader Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) of distribution network EPCO for photovoltaic, energy storage and power intelligent operation and maintenance, and the leader of enterprise energy efficiency management system Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) .
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that with the deepening of the new round of power system reform, the market-oriented trading mechanism of power has been gradually improved, and the proportion of market-oriented trading electricity has continued to increase, which will gradually restore the commodity attribute of power, and realize that the electricity price can be “increased or decreased”, which will help to promote the more stable benefits of power enterprises. As it is difficult to significantly reduce the fuel cost of coal-fired power in the short term, it is expected that the market-oriented transaction price of some power consuming provinces in 2022 will still rise compared with the benchmark price, which will help to alleviate the pressure on coal-fired power enterprises caused by the rise of fuel cost. In addition, the green power pilot transaction was launched. From the supply and demand of the green power market, the “environmental value” premium of green power may persist for a certain period of time, thickening the income of new energy operators. []
[Theme 2] steel
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that from the perspective of the supply side, there is great uncertainty in the administrative production restriction of steel after the first quarter. Therefore, under the background of demand repair, the elasticity of iron ore may be better. We can pay attention to iron ore companies Hbis Resources Co.Ltd(000923) , Inner Mongolia Dazhong Mining Co.Ltd(001203) in the first half of the year. From a longer time dimension, after the steady growth pulse in spring, the demand may weaken again. In terms of time and amplitude, this round of real estate downward cycle still needs to be completed. Pay attention to the industrial callback risk in the second half of the year. In the long run, the concentration of ordinary steel industry shows an upward trend, and the industry leader Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) benefits from the long-term rise of the industry’s bargaining power. In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to some stocks that have the logic of increasing market share or need to benefit from emerging industries, such as Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) .
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) pointed out that with the approaching of the new year, the market has gradually entered the holiday state, and the overall demand side has weakened. It is expected that the steel market may continue to fluctuate next week. With the steady growth of the foundation at the end of fiscal policy and the easing signal released by the central bank at the end of monetary policy, the industry demand is expected to increase, and the profits of steel mills are expected to be repaired. At present, the sector is at the undervalued level, which is a good opportunity for layout.
In terms of special steel, stainless steel has good support for a long time, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention. In the long run, with the support of the national carbon peak policy, the reduction of crude steel production has become a deterministic trend, which is important for the price and profit of stainless steel. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) and other targets.
As the core metal material in the field of new energy vehicles, electrical steel is also a sector worthy of attention. Electrical steel is the motor and core material of new energy vehicles. Under the resonance of carbon neutralization at the policy end, accelerated admission of new and old car making forces at the supply end, and improved economy and convenience at the consumer end, new energy vehicles have developed rapidly, driving the downstream demand for electrical steel, The electrical steel sector has ushered in a major opportunity, but at present, the valuation of Companies in the sector is generally not high. They are optimistic about the electrical steel sector for a long time. It is suggested to focus on Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , etc. []
[Theme 3] natural gas
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) mentioned that the central economic work conference in early December 2021 proposed that “new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption should not be included in the total energy consumption control”, which has opened a huge space for the high growth of petrochemical leaders. Leading petrochemical enterprises continue to carry out large-scale layout in new energy and new materials, and promote the continuous improvement of the added value of leading products of large refining and chemical industry. At the same time, leading petrochemical enterprises, such as private large refining and chemical enterprises, after the refining and chemical projects are put into operation, The world’s largest clustered aromatic hydrocarbon production capacity and the world’s largest clustered olefin production capacity have the ability to extend downstream to more than 20 kinds of scarce new energy and semiconductor materials, which are extremely scarce all over the world.
At the same time, compared with new energy or semiconductor material enterprises in a single link, the integrated large-scale advantages of large refining and chemical leaders will also have obvious cost advantages and comprehensive competitiveness once they overcome technology.
The agency further analyzed that major countries around the world continue to promote the “double carbon” superposition epidemic, which has a significant negative impact on energy production and capital expenditure. It is difficult to fundamentally alleviate the supply problems of upstream main energy such as oil, coal and natural gas, but rely on stone oil and coal, Many new energy materials and new material projects with natural gas as raw materials are in the environment of significant growth in long-term demand, and the prosperity may be maintained for a long time. Under the condition that the new production capacity is gradually put into operation, the performance of leading petrochemical enterprises continues to grow significantly, with strong certainty, and the current sector valuation is at a low level, with huge space.
In addition, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said that under the premise of cold winter, European natural gas inventories are at a low level, Russia is difficult to meet the growth of demand in Europe and Russia at the same time, natural gas prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall, and there is a possibility of further upward in winter. The price of natural gas in Europe in 2022 was higher than that in 2021, and gradually decreased from 2022 to 2024. However, considering the lack of capex, carbon neutralization and the increase of long-term probability of extreme climate; We judge the rise of long-term price center.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that the goal of carbon neutralization accelerates the transformation of energy structure, and natural gas is an important tool for China to usher in the turning point of carbon peak. Natural gas is a fossil energy with high calorific value and low carbon emission, and the carbon emission per unit calorific value is only about 60% of that of coal. We believe that under the constraints of China’s dual carbon goal, natural gas, as a clean primary fossil energy, will be an important tool for China to slow down the growth rate of carbon emissions. On the premise that the proportion of non fossil energy use has not increased significantly, natural gas will play an important role in China’s “carbon neutralization road”. In terms of investment suggestions, driven by the goal of carbon neutrality, China’s natural gas demand is expected to continue to grow, and natural gas producers will fully benefit from the rise in natural gas prices; Under the background of increasing import demand, the construction of natural gas terminal is expected to accelerate. []
[theme 4] agricultural planting
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) mentioned that at the press conference of the state information office on January 20, Zeng Yande, director of the development planning department of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, said that at present, the pilot industrialization of genetically modified varieties in China is being carried out in an orderly manner. Last year, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas carried out the pilot industrialization of herbicide resistant genetically modified soybeans and insect and herbicide resistant genetically modified maize that have obtained the production and application safety certificate, Good progress. At present, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas is revising the regulations of four departments, including the measures for the examination and approval of major crop varieties, to clarify the relevant provisions on the industrialized application of genetically modified crops. We believe that the commercialization of genetically modified organisms in China is gradually and orderly promoted, and relevant enterprises are expected to usher in the performance cashing period. It is recommended to focus on Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) with technical reserves and first mover advantages in the genetically modified seed industry.
In addition, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) indicates that the cold event may last until the summer of 2022, and the volcanic eruption may affect the rhythm of SST change. According to the deduction of nmme model, it is at the peak of low sea level temperature at present, and NINO3 will be in the future 4 will continue to rise, and the probability will rise to the ENSO neutral range from April to June. It will still face the influence of La Nina this spring. It should be pointed out that the recent Tonga volcanic eruption or accelerated the rising rhythm of sea surface temperature, making La Nina phenomenon enter neutral events or even El Nino faster in the first half of the year. From the perspective of investment suggestions and investment targets, the global climate is facing abnormalities, crop production is facing potential risks, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) may rise but not fall, resulting in short-term opportunities in the planting chain. In addition, at present, the industrial chain is in the state of loss and capacity reduction in the downstream, the high price of upstream raw materials or the further reduction of fermentation capacity are expected, and the aquaculture sector has the value of configuration on the left.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) also pointed out that the Tonga volcanic eruption is one of the strongest volcanic eruptions in this century, or further bring climate impact, and the probability of extreme weather in the southern hemisphere increases. As the main grain producing areas in the southern hemisphere, such as Argentina, South Africa and Brazil, are close to Tonga volcano, the global crop production may be affected by the continuous eruption of Tonga volcano, and the unit yield level and excellent rate may decline, thus affecting the global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply level. []
