Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) : the market will always stand on the side of "steady growth"! There is still room for the value sector (infrastructure chain + undervalued value)
Before we really see the stabilization of the economy, the market will always stand on the side of "stable growth", and there is still room for the value sector (infrastructure chain + undervalued value). The three rounds of infrastructure construction bank in history show that the market of infrastructure chain will not end until the economy really bottoms out and picks up. Undervaluation repair starts when the differentiation between high and low valuations reaches the quantile line of 80%, and the market will end when it is generally reduced to 60%. The interest rate cut further catalyzes the undervalued market. At present, the degree of differentiation has been reduced to 70%, and the depression has not been filled up. Pay close attention to the pre holiday configuration window period, and the new and old infrastructure + undervalued value ("bank land insurance + coal") still has configuration value.
The balance continues to shift to value, and the infrastructure chain and undervalued market are far from over. 1、 Infrastructure chain: the signs of recovery are more clear, and the market is still accelerating. Previously, we counted that the order data of large central enterprises recovered in 2021q4 (one quarter ahead of the growth rate of infrastructure investment). As of January 22, 642 companies had been disclosed in the 2021 annual report. In terms of performance forecast, the growth rate of new and old infrastructure performance is significantly warmer than Q3. The market of infrastructure chain often starts from the stimulus policy and ends when the economic data actually bottoms out and picks up. This is true for several times in history (2008 / 9-2009 / 4, 2014 / 11-2015 / 6, 2019 / 7-2020 /). At present, the market of infrastructure industry chain is far from over. Focus on the development direction of new and old infrastructure: rail transit equipment, consumer building materials (municipal pipes, waterproof materials), UHV and charging pile.
II. Underestimated value: the depression has not been filled. In the monetary easing cycle, the period when the differentiation between high and low valuations reaches the extreme (the degree of differentiation reaches 80%) is the prerequisite for the rebound of undervalued values, while the differentiation drops to 60% and the valuation repair ends. Since mid November, the differentiation of high and undervalued values has reached 80%. Last week's interest rate cut stimulated the undervalued sector to further warm up. At present, the degree of differentiation is 70%. There is still room for the valuation repair of the undervalued sector. The main line of undervaluation continues to focus on: Yindi insurance + coal. []
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) : it is recommended to focus on the sectors of cement, waterproof early cycle and pipe related to the advance of beneficiary finance and the investment of special bonds
It is recommended to invest in the relevant cement, waterproof early cycle and pipe sectors with the benefit of financial advance and special bonds. The special bond investment focuses on the construction of water conservancy pipelines. The demand for pipes is expected to rise in 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to the upward logic of the bottom of the industry and recommend Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) .
At present, the valuation of the cement sector is in a low position. It is suggested to focus on grasping the bottom layout opportunity. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) cement leader in East China, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) improved corporate governance, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) industry leader. The logic of increasing the concentration of water reducing agent has been strongly confirmed, which is expected to benefit from the recovery of infrastructure construction. It is recommended to Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) . In addition, waterproof and concrete products also deserve attention. []
Guosheng Securities: the rising momentum of infrastructure chain is expected to strengthen. It is recommended to recommend cement and consumer building materials
Recently, the press conference of the national development and Reform Commission continued to say that we should appropriately carry out infrastructure investment in advance, accelerate the promotion of 102 major engineering projects in the 14th five year plan, and strive to form more physical workload in the first quarter. The follow-up steady growth landing policy and promotion intensity are expected to be further strengthened, and the rising momentum of the infrastructure chain is expected to be strengthened. In the short-term off-season, the terminal demand is still weak, but with the implementation of medium-term structural wide credit, the counter cyclical demand represented by cement is expected to stabilize and recover, supporting the quarterly profit center. Under the "double carbon" target, the supply side may maintain strict constraints on normalization, medium and long-term favorable sector profit expectation and valuation repair. In the follow-up, we can pay attention to the marginal change of demand and the catalysis of macro policies. Cement and consumer building materials are recommended. []
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : actively grasp the restless market of the Spring Festival and recommend the consumption of building materials, pipelines, cement, etc.
Actively grasp the restless market in the Spring Festival, and recommend the consumption of building materials, pipelines, cement, etc. 1) Last year, the consumption of building materials was affected by the real estate boom, capital chain and cost pressure. At present, the above factors are expected to gradually improve. In the medium and long term, the leading companies have started channel reform, and the scale effect is expected to continuously improve the industry concentration, both long and short.
2) the downstream of the plastic pipeline sector has both infrastructure and real estate. The infrastructure end is expected to benefit from the heating up of municipal pipe network investment. The logic of the real estate end is similar to that of consumer building materials.
3) cement is expected to benefit from the improvement of subsequent infrastructure and real estate demand. In the medium and long term, the supply pattern is expected to continue to be optimized.
4) at present, the market value of the leading glass industry is at a low level. Next year, the overall supply and demand of the industry may still be in tight balance. The downward space of unit profit of float glass is limited. Photovoltaic glass is expected to benefit from the recovery of the landscape of the industrial chain, and electronic glass is expected to benefit from the expansion of new products such as domestic substitutes and folding screens.
5) the demand side of glass fiber is driven by wind power, overseas and other downstream, and the increment on the supply side is limited.
In terms of investment suggestions, consumer building materials are recommended Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; China Liansu, Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) , ad Co., Ltd. are recommended for the pipeline; Recommended cement Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) ; Glass recommended Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Xinyi Glass, etc; Glass fiber recommended China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , etc. []
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : the upward expectation of "steady growth" often raises the cement valuation in stages
The valuation of short-term cement stocks may usher in repair, a game of certainty and uncertainty. Certainty: 1) in 2022h1, the capital construction investment will be determined, or contribute to the demand increment; 2) Investment growth in areas such as affordable rental housing, education investment and health investment is highly deterministic, which can also contribute to the increase of demand. 3) By the end of 2021, the national po42 5. The average price of cement is 560 yuan / ton, the highest level in the same period since 2015. Entering the off-season at a historical high price means that if the price level of 22q2 peak season is further improved, the profits of cement enterprises will have greater upward space.
Uncertainty: real estate is the most important downstream demand area of the cement industry, and the pressure trend of new construction area of real estate is relatively clear; However, there is still a large demand for cement in the construction of the main structure. Under the dual factors of the current high construction area and the constraints of the "guaranteed delivery building" policy, the demand for cement still has a certain support.
Overall, real estate has a negative impact on cement demand, but there is limited downward space for demand.
From the perspective of investment suggestions, the expectation of "steady growth" is expected to rise. From historical experience, the expectation of "steady growth" will often raise the cement valuation stage by stage. It is suggested to arrange short-term valuation repair opportunities for cement stocks. Subject recommendation: Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ; Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) 。 []
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : prefabricated buildings are in line with the dual carbon development goal, and the policy drive is continuously strengthened
Prefabricated buildings are in line with the dual carbon development goal, and the policy drive is continuously strengthened. Prefabricated buildings are superior to traditional buildings in energy conservation, emission reduction, carbon reduction and other aspects, which is in line with the development goal of "double carbon". In recent years, the state and local governments have intensively issued a number of policies to promote the development of prefabricated buildings. In October 2021, the State Council issued the action plan for carbon peak before 2030, which proposed to "accelerate the industrialization of new buildings, vigorously develop prefabricated buildings and promote steel structure housing"; In the same period, the "opinions on promoting green development of urban and rural construction" of the State Council once again stressed that "focus on promoting the construction of steel structure prefabricated housing".
With the active promotion of prefabricated construction projects in various regions, the scale of new prefabricated buildings in China is growing. According to the statistics of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, in 2020, the total number of newly started prefabricated buildings in China was 630 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of about 50%, accounting for about 20.5% of the new construction area. It is expected that prefabricated buildings will continue to grow rapidly during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and the proportion of prefabricated buildings in the new construction area is expected to reach more than 30% in 2025. []
Ping An Securities: the follow-up infrastructure investment is expected to be gradually improved. In the short term, it is relatively optimistic about the cement and waterproof sector
Under the demand of steady growth, the central bank stated that "we should promote stability with progress", and the national development and Reform Commission also said that "we should strive to form more physical workload in the first quarter". It is expected that the follow-up infrastructure investment is expected to be gradually improved, and more real estate support policies are expected to be issued, driving the financing, sales and land purchase of real estate enterprises to return to normal.
In terms of investment, we are relatively optimistic about the cement and waterproof sector in the short term. In terms of cement, the real estate policy continues to improve, the infrastructure is expected to develop, and the profit side is expected to improve with the decline of coal price. It is suggested to pay attention to the cement leaders with stable performance and undervalued value, such as Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ; In terms of waterproofing, the recovery of infrastructure construction is expected to boost the demand for waterproofing, and the subsequent profit margin is expected to improve gradually. In the medium and long term, the general trend of raising standards in the industry is expected to lead to a double rise in concentration and demand. The frequent defaults of downstream real estate enterprises also accelerate the clearing of the waterproof industry pattern. It is suggested to pay attention to the industry leaders with brand strength, product advantages and price raising ability, Such as Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) . In terms of glass, if the real estate capital side is significantly improved and the glass demand is still supported under the continuation of the completion peak logic, it is recommended to pay attention to industry leaders, such as Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) . []
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : two main lines of investment optimization in the construction industry in 2022
In 2022, there are two main lines for investment optimization in the construction industry - capital construction, new energy capital construction and steel structure for prefabricated buildings. It is suggested to pay attention to the central enterprises of traditional buildings: 1) optimize the central enterprises of new energy capital construction: China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) . The world's top 2 energy and power construction enterprises have deeply benefited from the large-scale construction of new energy under the "double carbon" strategy. The performance of the "14th five year plan" is high, and the growth is determined to be high. The value of the installed assets of wind and solar power generation in hand is expected to be revalued.
2) optional building steel structure track Faucet: Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) . Under the "double carbon 1 + n" policy system, fabricated steel structure has an advantageous development pattern with lower carbon emission intensity. In 2022, government investment in infrastructure, public construction and other fields is expected to make great efforts. As a leading enterprise in the two major subsidiaries of steel structure manufacturing and Engineering in China, β+α Resonance, optimistic about the performance of Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) in 2022.
3) pay attention to traditional infrastructure central enterprises: China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) . During the 12th Five Year Plan period and the 13th Five Year Plan period, China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) and other traditional "iron public base" construction central enterprises strategically arranged "big municipal" and "big city construction", landed in cities and realized business structure adjustment and transformation. The above-mentioned enterprises are expected to benefit from the development of urban agglomeration and urban internal infrastructure. []
