Affected by multiple adverse factors, there has been a round of “from strong to weak” process in the global market recently. Against the above background, the A-share market once fell sharply on Tuesday. After today’s opening, although the main indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen also opened high and went low, in the afternoon, the main indexes went out of the “V-shaped” reversal and got rid of the downward trend.
In view of the recent market adjustment, institutions generally believe that it is the emotional contagion caused by the turbulence in overseas markets, which is unsustainable. Among them, Xingshi investment believes that under the “steady growth” policy this year, China’s stock market will “focus on me”. The agency believes that with the gradual emergence of the effect of China’s “stable growth” policy, the economy and economic expectations will improve marginally, and the market performance will also improve.
The data from private placement network also shows that in its survey on holding shares or holding money for the holiday, 71% of private placement believe that track stocks have been fully adjusted, and the probability of systemic risk under loose monetary policy is small. Therefore, at the moment of adjustment, it is a good layout opportunity.
strong reversal of A-Shares
This afternoon, the major indexes of the two cities have stepped out of the “V-shaped” reversal and got rid of the previous downward trend. As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 0.66%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.7% and the gem index rose 0.99%.
On the disk, wind power and UHV were strong throughout the day, Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) and other trading limits, Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) followed up. The brokerage sector rose in the afternoon and Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) closed. Photovoltaic, semiconductor, electric power and cement sectors are completed, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) are lifted together, and Longyuan electric power is put on the sector. China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) led the rise of “Chinese prefix”.
However, just yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.58% for the whole day, the biggest decline in more than a year; The Shenzhen composite index fell 2.83%; The gem index fell 2.67%, breaking through the 3000 point mark.
For the recent weak performance of a shares, Ding Bingzhong, director of asset investment of the 1898 movement, said that since the second half of last week, the global stock market has been falling continuously as a whole. Although the A-share market continues to be bought by foreign investors, it is reasonable for the market to fall sharply under the background of the continuous accumulation of short-term negative expectations of investors.
However, it is generally believed in the industry that the recent sharp adjustment of A-Shares is a typical emotional contagion caused by turbulence in overseas markets and is unsustainable. Therefore, for the future market, it is not appropriate to overreact to the decline of the stock market. At present, A-Shares have relatively solid support in terms of policy and capital, and the sentiment of the financial market is expected to be repaired.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) in the research report, it is pointed out that at the current stage, the “policy bottom” has been made clear, the “emotional bottom” is coming, and the “market bottom” is gradually approaching. It is suggested to continue to focus on the “two low” layout of blue chips to meet the starting point of the market in the first half of the year.
First of all, the local “two sessions” show that there is an obvious trend of stabilizing the economy with investment, and after the currency is stronger than expected, the policies of other ministries and local governments are forming a joint force, “policy bottom” has been made clear .
Secondly, the emotional catharsis induced by the collapse of high-level groups is coming to an end. The short-term adjustment of the market deviates from both the monetary easing trend and the fundamental trend of policy support. The differentiation of internal and external capital behavior is also evidence, the “emotional bottom” is coming .
Finally, with the continuous improvement of the consensus on the main line of stable growth and the end of emotional catharsis, it is expected that the market capital will resume inflow, “market bottom” is gradually approaching . It is suggested to stick to the main line of “stable growth” and continue to lay out high-quality blue chips around the “two low positions” to meet the starting point of the market in the first half of the year.
In addition, from the perspective of capital, on the one hand, China’s macro liquidity is abundant. The central bank has strengthened open market operation and put more abundant liquidity into the market; On the other hand, since the beginning of the year, northbound funds have also continued to maintain a net inflow trend, expressing their optimism about the A-share market with real gold and silver.
over 70% of private equity holdings for the holiday
In fact, as the Spring Festival approaches, there will always be discussions on whether to hold money or stock for the new year in the market at this time.
However, from the historical data, A-Shares have a more significant Spring Festival effect, with a high probability of market rise before and after the festival. In terms of the rising range, in the past 12 years, the average cumulative yield of wind all a in the five trading days before the Spring Festival is 1.9%, the median is 2.6%, and the average cumulative yield in the five trading days after the Spring Festival is 1.4%, the median is 1.8%. And the market performance during the Spring Festival over the years is significantly more stable than that of the whole year.
In addition, according to the survey results of private placement network on holding shares or holding money for holidays, 71% of private placement institutions believe that “track shares” have been fully adjusted, and the probability of systemic risks under loose monetary policy is small. Therefore, they believe that the current adjustment is a good opportunity for layout, and only 29% of private placement think it is difficult to have trend opportunities at present, It is suggested to wait and see. When it comes to how the pre holiday market will be interpreted, 73% of private placement believe that the pre holiday market probability will maintain a wide range of fluctuation, 18% of private placement believe that it will fluctuate upward, and another 9% of private placement believe that the adjustment is not over.
Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu investment, believes that the recent market trend is weak, there is also a style switching between high and low valuations and a large adjustment range of some track stocks. However, at this time point, investors can be moderately positive, and the opportunity to hold shares for the holiday may be greater.
Yuan Huaming further said that this is because the recent market performance has fully reflected the impact of several main negative factors, such as the decline of China’s economic growth, the fluctuation of overseas markets and the increasing uncertainty of the epidemic situation. Meanwhile, China’s economic data in the fourth quarter of last year was slightly better than expected; This year, the tone of the steady growth policy was established, the introduction of more favorable policies and the superposition of policy effects gradually appeared, and the economic performance in the first quarter was likely to exceed expectations; This year is also the year of the reform of the comprehensive registration system, and the policy environment of the capital market is also relatively favorable. These favorable factors are more likely to promote the market to stabilize and get better around the Spring Festival. There is no need for investors to be too pessimistic. Of course, the recent financial report disclosure period is intensive, and the pressure on growth stocks is greater in the economic downturn stage. Some varieties that are overvalued and whose performance does not meet expectations need to be cautious.
Huang Yi, director of Hongfeng asset investment, said that recently, the capital side has successively released positive signals to accelerate the net inflow of funds to the north. After the festival, whether from the perspective of macroeconomic and liquidity environment or the relative cost performance of current stock market valuation, if there are no extreme circumstances, the shareholding winning rate during the long Spring Festival holiday is large.
Further, since the beginning of the year, the Chinese market has been volatile and downward. On the one hand, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates and shrinking the table has been advanced, and the real interest rate has risen, which has brought marginal fluctuations to China’s liquidity expectation; On the other hand, multiple adverse factors suppress risk appetite. However, it should be noted that China is still in the window period of monetary policy easing. It is expected that the central bank will strengthen open market operation by the end of this month, that is, before the Spring Festival, and meet the reasonable capital needs of institutions through a variety of policy tools such as reverse repurchase and MLF. In addition, from the macro events outside China and the factors affecting short-term risk preferences in the early stage of institutional adjustment, the market is now at the end of the adjustment or the valuation of stock market has been improved.
