The consumption sector has continuously ushered in policy red envelopes.
Recently, the Ministry of Commerce has defined a series of priorities for promoting consumption in 2022, and the national development and Reform Commission has also issued relevant notices to further release the consumption potential of residents. As one of the main lines that continue to be optimistic, many institutions have clearly pointed out the layout value of the consumer sector in their annual strategies and relevant reports.
With the approaching of the traditional consumption peak season of the Spring Festival, what are the opportunities for the layout of the current consumption sector? Carding found that the market is currently highly concerned about Baijiu, ice and snow sports and prefabricated dishes, and the agency suggests that the deterministic growth varieties can be developed in the future market.
intensive policy hedging downside risk
On January 25, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on business operation in 2021, at which the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Commerce pointed out that in 2021, consumption will again become the first driving force for economic growth. Next, the Ministry of Commerce will do a good job in epidemic prevention and control and consumption promotion, promote the continuous recovery and upgrading of consumption, and do a good job in five key areas, including improving the energy level of traditional consumption and accelerating the development of new consumption.
This is not the first time that the macro policy level has released good news on “promoting consumption” in the near future. Not long ago, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on doing a good job in promoting consumption in the near future, which put forward ten measures to meet the festival consumption demand according to local conditions and create an upgraded version of online festival consumption; The national business teleconference held at the end of December 2021 also made it clear that we should stabilize the recovery momentum of consumption, promote consumption upgrading and enhance the basic role of consumption in economic development.
Minsheng Securities pointed out that the ten measures specified in the notice will help stabilize consumption and promote the stability of market order under the background of normalization of epidemic prevention and control. With the follow-up vaccination rate, the approval and landing of domestic specific drugs and the promotion of oral specific drugs research, residents’ consumption will gradually desensitize to the disturbance of sporadic epidemics, and the consumption is expected to be repaired in 2022.
Looking forward to the whole year of 2022, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) consumption is expected to show a weak recovery trend and gradually return to the due potential growth track. From the perspective of valuation, at present, the PE valuation of various consumer industries in 2022 is between 12-28 times, which is in a reasonable range.
Baijiu: callback brings layout timing
With the advent of the traditional consumption peak season of the Spring Festival, what opportunities in the consumption field deserve attention?
Carding found that as the A share market value of the highest consumption segments of the sector, Baijiu is very much the attention of all parties. Data show that although the Baijiu index continued to callback since mid December 2021, the Baijiu sector has been showing signs of stabilization since last week, and the latest price of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) has also started to impact on the 2000 yuan pass from the top 1850 yuan per share.
In Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) ‘s view, Baijiu sector valuation has strong correlation with currency liquidity. The current round of monetary policy is expected to be loose or give a great boost to market confidence. From the perspective of the driven pin, the mobile sales will be further restored during the Spring Festival this year. The progress of the liquor enterprises’ advance is also relatively early. The “good start” rate can be seen in 2022, and the smooth recovery of the fundamentals will also support the stock prices of Baijiu.
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) statistics show that in the fourth quarter of 2021, although the positions of Baijiu and other non Baijiu heavy liquor holdings had dropped, the number of heavy food and beverage fund increased by 514, while the number of heavy liquor stores increased by 394. Considering the certainty of Baijiu’s growth, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) thinks that the callback will take a lead in the layout. It is recommended that we focus on the deterministic growth varieties and the improved undervalued varieties.
ice and snow sports and prefabricated dishes: seize industrial opportunities
Compared with previous years, especially before the epidemic, there are two new outlets for Spring Festival consumption this year: one is prefabricated dishes, and the other is ice and snow sports. Investment opportunities in related fields are increasingly recognized by institutions and markets.
According to the data, as of the closing on January 26, the index of prefabricated vegetables had retreated by nearly 2%, but before that, prefabricated vegetables were also one of the hot sectors in the market.
Minsheng Securities believes that the development of the prefabricated vegetable industry not only has the internal needs of the development of the agricultural industry to a certain extent, but also the urgent needs of the public for epidemic prevention life, as well as the deep-seated desire of urban people for fast-paced and residential economy. With the continuous development of takeout business and group meal business in China’s catering market, the market penetration of prefabricated dishes is expected to continue to increase in the future. IResearch predicts that the scale of China’s Prefabricated vegetable market will reach 345.9 billion yuan in 2021, and it may exceed trillion yuan in the next 6-7 years.
The approach of the Winter Olympics and the clear “taking advantage of the momentum to expand residents’ ice and snow consumption” in the above-mentioned notice have driven the recent rise of share prices of A-share related sectors and individual stocks. In this regard, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) believes that the Winter Olympic Games, as a long-term project, will become an important catalyst for the rise of ice and snow sports industry. Driven by it, relevant events marketing, sales of surrounding derivatives and other activities will be carried out gradually. Relevant companies in the industrial chain may enter the performance cashing period. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the opportunities brought by the recovery of sports sector and offline sports and recreational activities.
