According to the statistics of historical data, the securities times · databao found that the probability of red envelope market in the last two trading days before the Spring Festival is high.
On the penultimate trading day before the Spring Festival, the main A-share index rose and fell in the morning, and turned green in the afternoon. Brokerage stocks rose significantly half an hour after the afternoon opening, driving the stock index to stage a V-shaped trend; The first brother of GEM market value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is close to strengthening in the late trading, helping the gem index return to 3000 points. In the brokerage sector, rose by the limit of Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) at the close, and Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) , Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) , Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) , Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) rose by more than 4%. According to the after hours data of , the net capital inflow of four securities companies, including China stock market news, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) , exceeded 100 million yuan.
According to the statistics of data treasure, there are more red and less green stocks on the disk, more than 3100 stocks in the two cities are rising, and the market sentiment has been repaired, but the transaction volume has fallen to less than 800 billion yuan, which is the lowest transaction day in half a year, and the pre holiday effect is becoming more and more obvious. New energy related topics such as UHV, charging pile, smart grid, wind energy and photovoltaic rebounded, with the largest number of wind energy concept limit stocks, Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) , Ficont Industry (Beijing) Co.Ltd(605305) , Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Yunnan Energy Investment Co.Ltd(002053) and other harvest limit boards.
CXO concept, covid-19 medicine, digital currency, prefabricated dishes, biological vaccines and other subjects led the decline. The CXO concept index fell the most, falling 2.68% today. Leading stocks Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) and Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) all fell by more than 5%, and the value of Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) a stock market fell below 80 billion yuan. Compared with the record high set on August 5 last year, the pullback rate reached 50.95%.
the Shanghai index hit its worst start in January in six years
Since the new year's day, the overall trend of A-Shares has tended to be flat, and the Shanghai stock index has successively fallen below the 60 day line and 250 day line. According to data treasure statistics, since January, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 5.06%, the worst start in January in nearly six years. However, judging from the trend of northbound funds, today's net inflow is 1.139 billion yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of 43.864 billion yuan this month, which has reached the second highest level of net inflow in January since the opening of Shanghai Shenzhen Stock connect.
With regard to the recent overall weakness of a shares, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) pointed out that from now to the Spring Festival, the "entanglement" between short-term hedging demand and medium-term policies still exists, and the probability of market shock stabilizing is high. From the end of the festival to the window of the two sessions, the suppression of short-term hedging is lifted, the strength of medium-term and long-term policies is expected to increase, and A-Shares are expected to rebound in stages after "squatting", That is, enter the first half of the second stage within the range from the end of the policy to the end of the valuation (increased policy efforts and market repair).
Guosheng Securities said that the recent reduction of reverse repo and LPR interest rates are positive given by the policy side, indicating that the end of market policy has come, and the end of sentiment is still brewing. The Federal Reserve interest rate meeting in the early morning of Thursday is particularly important. After the market expected hawkish remarks are landed, it will enter a negative window period in the short term, or open a wave of "spring agitation".
the probability of A-share red envelope market on the eve of the Spring Festival is high
Will the red envelope market be staged on the eve of the Spring Festival? According to the historical data statistics from 2000 to now, databao found that the probability of red envelope market before the festival is high. Specifically, the probability of the Shanghai composite index rising on the penultimate trading day before the Spring Festival is 81.8%, and the probability of rising on the last trading day before the festival is 68.2%; The probability of the CSI 300 index rising on the second trading day before the festival reaches 85%, and the probability of rising on the last trading day before the festival reaches 70%; Gem means that the probability of rising on the second trading day before the festival reaches 90.9%, and the probability of rising on the last trading day before the festival reaches 54.5%.
Based on the performance of the industry index on the last trading day before the Spring Festival since 2000, six industries such as non-ferrous metals, electronics, coal, automobile, social services and banking have appeared in the top three of the list for more than four times , of which non-ferrous metals have appeared five times, which is the industry with the highest frequency.
On the last trading day and the penultimate trading day before the Spring Festival in 2021, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index and the gem index all rose, with social services, beauty care and food and beverage leading the gains. For the future, market analysts pointed out that after the central bank cut the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank cut the MFL and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, the monetary easing cycle gradually opened, and the market as a whole was still boosted under the expectation of abundant liquidity. In the short term, the securities sector made efforts, and the A shares rebounded after the sharp decline. With the support of fundamentals and the expectation of loose liquidity, the overall logic of the market has not changed. The market in spring is still worth looking forward to, and it is still a good time to lurk at present.
