Recently, The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) securities analyst Guo Shan gave Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) a buy rating with a target price of 708.00 yuan, which is nearly 50% higher than the closing price of 473.29 yuan on January 24. The recommended reasons are: high annual performance growth, perfect new product matrix layout, and the future can be expected.
According to the performance forecast released not long ago, the net profit in 2021 is expected to be RMB 900 million ~ 1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 104.66% ~ 127.4%; The net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 850-950 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100.36% - 123.93%.
According to the latest data, since the beginning of the new year in 2022, a total of 20 securities business institutions have made investment rating forecasts for Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) . The consistent rating of Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) is buy, and the consistent target price is 692.4 yuan, which is expected to rise by 46.29%.
It is worth noting that the growth rate of Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) net profit began to decline since the second quarter.
Quarterly, the net profit from Q1 to Q3 Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) in 2021 is 171 million yuan, 255 million yuan and 283 million yuan respectively. The net profit of Q4 is expected to be 191 million yuan to 291 million yuan, with a month on month change of - 32.51% ~ 2.83%.
Affected by the regulatory policies of the medical and American industry and the changes of the company's fundamentals, in 2021, Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) share price rose and fell, with a cumulative decline of 18.18% in the whole year; Since the beginning of 2022, Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) is estimated to have continued to decline by 11.96%.
Although the brokerage institutions are unanimously bullish on Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) and believe that high growth can be expected, under the background of the continuous introduction of regulatory policies and the decline of the profitability of core single products, whether Yimei leading Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) can get out of the performance growth dilemma as scheduled has become a very realistic problem.
strong supervision Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) 60 billion market value evaporation
Eat all over the sky.
Holding the hyaluronic acid business of "making money lying down", the Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) known as "women's Maotai" was once popular in the capital market, and its total market value once exceeded 160 billion in July 2021.
However, the good times did not last long, and Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) whose market value reached the peak soon ushered in a strong regulatory wave in the medical and beauty industry.
In June 2021, the National Health Commission and other eight ministries and commissions jointly issued the special rectification work plan for combating illegal medical and beauty services, which mainly punished and cracked down on the illegal acts of medical and beauty institutions in the middle reaches of the medical and beauty industry, that is, service-side medical and beauty institutions.
In September 2021, the State Administration of radio and television issued the notice on stopping broadcasting "beauty loan" and similar advertisements, saying that some "beauty loan" advertisements attract young people with low interest or even no interest, induce excessive consumption and ultra-high consumption, and are suspected of false publicity, cheating and misleading consumers, resulting in adverse effects. Therefore, it was decided that various radio and television and online audio-visual institutions The platform will stop broadcasting "beauty loan" and similar advertisements.
On November 2, 2021, the law enforcement guide for medical beauty advertising issued by the State Administration of market supervision showed that among the nine kinds of medical beauty advertising chaos to be focused on, The first is to create "appearance anxiety" -- improperly associate poor appearance with negative evaluation factors such as "low energy", "laziness" and "poverty", or improperly associate outstanding appearance with positive evaluation factors such as "high quality", "diligence" and "success".
Affected by the strong regulatory policies of the industry, Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) share price rose and fell, and continued to decline. As of January 24, 2022, the market value of Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) company is only 10.4 billion, which has evaporated by nearly 60 billion in six months compared with its previous peak market value.
hi sports products play an important role
According to Frost & Sullivan, Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) ranked first in sales of hyaluronic acid Chinese brands in 2018 and 2019.
Among the 6 hyaluronic acid injection products in hand, 5 have passed nmpa certification, ranking first in the industry; The three main products "Hi body", "everay" and "bonida" have the titles of "first" or "first" in different market segments, and the core single product "Hi body" is particularly eye-catching.
"Hi body" is the first hyaluronic acid injection product for neck lines in China. Since entering the market in 2017, its contribution to Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) revenue has gradually expanded from 15.34% to 43.50% in 2019.
In 2020, the proportion of solution injection products represented by "Hi body" in the annual operating revenue reached 63.05%.
In the first half of 2021, the operating revenue of hi sports accounted for 75.20%.
Lai Zhen, senior analyst of iResearch consulting, said in an interview that the outstanding performance of hi body market is because such anti-aging products have been deeply loved by beauty seekers. In addition, there are no similar competitive products.
Moreover, the natural properties of hyaluronic acid also determine its high repurchase rate.
Public information shows that hyaluronic acid is mainly composed of hyaluronic acid, which is a natural substance of human body. It can be absorbed by human body within half a year to one year after injection. Some long-acting hyaluronic acid has a supporting and shaping effect for up to 18 months, and consumers still need to be injected after that.
Some practitioners in the medical and beauty industry told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter: "I don't recommend that beauty seekers use different products in the short term, because most hyaluronic acid products will add crosslinking agents."
Relevant technical data show that the crosslinking agent can make hyaluronic acid molecules reach an inseparable state and maintain the effect of shaping after injection.
"The cross-linking agent content of different products is different. If different products are injected differently, it may be insoluble and the skin may be uneven." She further explained.
It is precisely because "Hi body" has occupied the first mover advantage, the company has also made differentiated products to further grasp the market segmentation. Position "Hi body" neck pattern 1.5 in the neck pattern market, and "Hi body" Shuiguang 2.5 in the neck and face market.
hidden worries emerge
What worries the market is that Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) has not launched a single product other than hyaluronic acid products. Its newly launched hi body panda needle 1.0, huihuo bubble needle and moistening angel are hyaluronic acid products.
It is understood that after the above two hi body series products were listed, Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) launched hi body panda needle 1.0 in July 2020, which is positioned in the eye market. The difference between this product and hi body neck 1.5 lies in the different proportion of ingredients. It does not contain crosslinking agent, but the ingredient is still small molecule hyaluronic acid.
Another huihuo bubble needle launched in May 2021 is an upgraded product based on "Hi body" Shuiguang 2.5. Its main effect is moisturizing. Glycine, alanine, proline and vitamin B2 are added to the ingredients of the product, and the concept of anti sugar and anti-oxidation is introduced. The effect is maintained for only one month, and the terminal price ranges from 2000 yuan to 4000 yuan.
In addition, yubai angel "Tongyan needle", which was launched in the fourth quarter of 2021, is the first product Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) to enter the collagen regeneration market and the first compliant hyaluronic acid injection product containing polyl-lactic acid in China.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) analysts believe that new products such as "white angel" are expected to contribute significant increment in the future.
However, it is worth noting that according to nmpa data, 81.70% of the component of this product is still cross-linked sodium hyaluronate, i.e. hyaluronic acid.
During the continuous launch of new hyaluronic acid products in Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , the external market environment has changed. Botulinum toxin has replaced the share of hyaluronic acid in injection medicine and beauty in China in terms of growth rate and share.
In 2019, according to the big data of new oxygen, hyaluronic acid accounted for 66.59%, with a growth rate of 53.11%, and botulinum toxin accounted for 32.67%, with a growth rate of 90.56%. After two years, the items with the largest proportion of medical and American consumption in China are firming anti-aging, wrinkle removing and thin face and hyaluronic acid, accounting for 14.55%, 11.73% and 9.53% in the overall market. The consumption of hyaluronic acid ranks third in terms of consumption scale and number of orders.
Insiders close to hyaluronic acid manufacturers said in a media interview that at present, there are no high barriers to some technologies at the production end of hyaluronic acid, and the focus of market competition is "marketing first". The product structure of Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) is too single, and more than 75% of the operating revenue mainly comes from injection sodium hyaluronate products such as hi body, everay and bonida. According to the latest disclosure of the third quarterly report, "Hi body" and other solution injection products have contributed about 767 million yuan to the company.
From the perspective of industry, Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) is not only facing the competition of Chinese brands such as Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) , Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , but also the competition of multinational enterprises such as eljian aesthetics and LG.
From the perspective of market pattern, Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) is still difficult to benchmark overseas giants. According to the sales amount, in 2019, the four international giants LG of South Korea, Allergan of the United States, humedix of South Korea and q-med of Sweden accounted for 68% of the market share, while the three leaders Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) and Haohai biology accounted for 23.8% of the market share.
In addition, Internet companies such as Baidu and Alibaba, as well as real estate developers such as Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) , have begun to set foot in medical beauty. For example, in October 2019, Alibaba acquired 16.16% shares of meinian health with Alibaba group, ant financial services group and Yunfeng fund, becoming the second largest shareholder of Meinian Onehealth Healthcare Holdings Co.Ltd(002044) ; In August 2020, JD health reached a comprehensive strategic cooperation with United liger and American doctor to enter the blue ocean of medical beauty.
Overall, the growth rate of hyaluronic acid end product market is slowing down, and the consumption of wrinkle removal and thin face based on botulinum toxin injection has occupied a larger share; On the other hand, the upstream technology is gradually mature, and competitive products will continue to be sold in the future. More Internet and pharmaceutical enterprises will enter the medical United States.
