The three major A-share indexes fell sharply today. The Shanghai index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index all fell by more than 2.5%, and the gem index fell below the integer mark of 3000 points. The market turnover reached 936.8 billion yuan, the industry sector showed a general downward trend, and the number of falling stocks exceeded 4400.
Specifically, the stock index closed down 2.58% to close at 3433.06 points; The Shenzhen composite index fell 2.83% to close at 13683.89 points; The gem index fell 2.67% to close at 2974.96 points.
For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities believes that the position should not be reduced at present, but should be increased gradually. Three major negative concerns in the early stage: 1. Worry about China’s slow monetary policy and poor credit easing effect; 2. Insufficient incremental funds, and the issuance of new funds is lower than expected; 3. Fed hawks said global liquidity tightening expectations. Recently, it has been basically reacted by the market, or it will land or be overly worried: compared with Hong Kong stocks and funds going north, the A-share market is pessimistic enough about the economic downturn. At present, China is in the “double width” cycle of wide money + wide credit, and there is still room for further easing in the follow-up. With the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy, market doubts are expected to improve, and the benefits of interest rate cuts on the numerator and denominator will gradually appear. At the same time, after the Spring Festival, the market risk appetite has improved, the issuance of new funds has warmed up, and the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve has made the expectation of raising interest rates bearish, which is expected to form a favorable time window from after the Spring Festival to before the two sessions. At present, our view on the follow-up market has become more positive. It is suggested to cherish and grasp the upcoming counter attack market.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that the spring market of A-Shares has never been absent in the past 20 years, and the spring market with the background of stable growth policy, such as 2012, the end of 2014 – the beginning of 2015 and 2019. The common characteristics of the steady growth spring market are: value first and then growth. In the early stage, the value of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and national securities led the rise, and in the later stage, the growth of gem and national securities led the rise. The steady growth policy is clear this time. The market background in spring is similar to that in the previous three times. The value and growth are expected to take turns, such as underestimated large finance, real estate and hard technology of new infrastructure.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that at present, China’s economy is in the scenario of simultaneous decline of growth rate and inflation rate, which generally corresponds to weak stocks and strong debts; After stabilizing and recovering, the equity market will have a new round of opportunities. The US economy is overheating and is trying to control inflation. Overheating scenarios generally correspond to bond bear market and stock bull to bear market. Looking to the future, the best measure for the United States to deal with inflation is actually to accelerate energy production, rather than the Federal Reserve to accelerate contraction, which may lead to further decline of the U.S. economy and fall into the risk of stagflation. The stagflation environment is a bear for both stocks and bonds. For China, the current corporate earnings expectations have declined, so the stock market has performed poorly. However, a new round of steady growth policies have been introduced one after another. If the recovery can be realized in 2021q1, a new round of opportunities should appear in the equity market. At the same time, as China’s trade surplus, capital inflow and RMB exchange rate remain high, it has the ability to implement the “I-oriented” policy and resist external shocks to a certain extent.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) indicates that the market is still tangled in the bottom area. 1. MLF interest rate cut, the central bank said to “open the monetary policy toolbox more”, and the one-year and five-year LPR cut. The direction of policy easing has been clear, but the market is still skeptical about the rhythm and intensity of policy easing. 2. The Fed’s concern about raising interest rates and even shrinking the table, and the sharp rise in US bond interest rates led to a sharp decline in US stocks, especially technology stocks, which also dragged down China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) , semiconductors and other sectors. The layout on the left is “mini version 2014”. 1) Grasping the main contradiction is now a time window for “steady growth” and “broad credit” at the margin: since the economic work conference in December 2021, the central bank has continuously reduced the reserve requirement and policy interest rate, issued a new special debt of 1.46 trillion in advance, and issued major projects in some provinces and cities in January earlier than in previous years. Various signals and data are constantly verifying the direction of marginal “wide credit”. 2) Referring to 2014, the tone of policy relaxation was established in the first half of the year, and social finance basically hit the bottom in April, but the index market was not officially launched until the interest rate cut in November. And every tangle and adjustment has become a layout opportunity. 3) However, the difference between now and 2014 lies in that, on the one hand, 2014 is a comprehensive and systematic relaxation. At present, under the general tone of “no speculation in real estate and housing” and “no promotion in infrastructure”, the intensity and space of policy easing are relatively limited, which is more likely to be phased and underpinned relaxation. On the other hand, 2014 gradually evolved into a round of leveraged cattle, while the current market leverage is weak, and institutional funds are still the dominant force in the market. Therefore, this round of market or similar “mini version 2014”, and now it is the left layout window.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that near the Spring Festival, A-Shares were affected by the disturbance of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the uncertainty of the news before the long holiday. The power of incremental funds to enter the market was insufficient, and A-Shares still showed the characteristics of structural market. Since December, China’s steady growth policy has made forward-looking efforts. The central bank has cut reserve requirements and interest rates one after another, and there is still room for subsequent interest rate cuts. The market is in a “wide money” window period, and macro liquidity is expected to remain relatively loose. Structurally, “wide credit” is the ultimate demand of the central bank for wide money. Infrastructure and real estate are important. The real estate regulation policy is expected to be marginal loose. Urban renewal, affordable housing construction and new infrastructure are the key directions. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to focus on “undervalued blue chip”: first, it is related to traditional infrastructure, such as banks and building materials; Second, the real estate and its upstream and downstream industrial chain benefiting from the marginal improvement of real estate policy. Focus on topics: digital economy, meta universe, traditional Chinese medicine, etc.
Guosheng Securities believes that since December last year, real estate sales, new construction and other data have deteriorated again, and the real estate chain continues to become a drag on the economy. The risks on the real estate side and the weakness of front-end data also mean that there is a need for further easing on the policy side. The signal released by the five-year LPR reduction is of greater significance. The end of the policy has been clear, and the probability will be substantially loosened in the future. Before the real reversal of economic data, the easing intensity may be amplified step by step, and the credit conditions have ushered in a real sense of stabilization. The m1-ppi scissors gap is repaired upward. The policy easing, credit stabilization and market expectation are expected to gradually return to a virtuous circle. In the stage of weak credit and economy in history, the success rate of large finance is the highest. With the digestion of growth, it is expected to open a wave of resonance market after the Spring Festival.
future analysis
Yuanda: all uncertain events fall to the dark moment or will end!
Dexun Zhenggu: short positions may focus on releasing, or retaliatory rebound may occur in the short term
Jufeng investment adviser: more than 4000 shares fell. The global capital market is volatile. Can the A-share market persist in spring?
