I. pig sector: continue to pay attention to the rhythm of pig production capacity. ① Pig prices rose slightly, and the loss of self breeding and autotrophy continued to expand. According to the data of zhuyitong, the average price of Sanyuan pigs across the country on Sunday was 14.33 yuan / kg, up 3.5% on a weekly basis and down 57.8% on a year-on-year basis; This week, the loss of self breeding pigs continued to expand, and the average profit per head was -300.36 yuan / head, down 11.3% month on week and 114.2% year-on-year; The profit of outsourcing piglet breeding narrowed slightly, and the average profit per head was -33.15 yuan / head, up 14.5% on a weekly basis and down 105.6% on a year-on-year basis. In terms of slaughter weight, the average slaughter weight of commercial pigs this week was 118.89 yuan / kg, a decrease of 1.1% month on month, of which piglets under 90kg accounted for 10.94%, a decrease of 0.14pct month on month, and pigs with a general weight of 150kg accounted for 7.06%, a decrease of 0.65pct month on month. ② By the end of 2021, there were 43.29 million fertile sows in China. According to the latest data of the National Bureau of statistics, at the end of the year, the number of fertile sows in China was 43.29 million, an increase of 4.0% at the same time. At the end of the 21st century, compared with June of the 21st year, the number of fertile sows decreased by 2.35 million, a decrease of 5.1%. In terms of quarters, 1.05 million and 1.3 million fertile sows in 21q3 and 21q4 respectively, with a slight acceleration in the ring ratio. However, according to the monitoring data of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, due to the recovery after the pig price hit the bottom in October, the rate of sow removal slowed down in November and increased by 0.77% in December. ③ It is suggested to actively pay attention to the allocation opportunities of pig sector. In January of the 22nd year, the pig price has fallen rapidly. As of Sunday, the pig price has fallen by 10.7% this month. The pig price is again below the breeding cost line. According to the latest statistics of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the average pig production cost of the industry is about 15.5 yuan / kg, and the overall loss of the industry is more than 1 yuan per kg at this stage. We believe that considering the trend of breeding sows and the number of newborn piglets in the past half a year, the overall supply and demand fundamentals of the industry will remain relatively loose in the next 1-2 quarters. After the Spring Festival, the pig price may hit the bottom again, and the de conversion of production capacity is expected to accelerate again. Historically, the risk of animal disease outbreak at the bottom of the pig cycle has increased significantly, leading to the acceleration of production capacity removal. At the current time point, due to the downturn of breeding prosperity and the increase of breeding density, the risk exposure in the link of biosafety prevention and control is significantly enlarged. It is suggested to focus on the interpretation of the subsequent epidemic situation and the pace of the overall production capacity of the industry. From the perspective of investment, it is suggested to focus on the breeding subjects with loose capital, excellent cost control and stable operation.
II. Animal protection sector: in 21 years, the batch issuance of most mainstream animal vaccines fell year-on-year. In 22 years, we focused on the improvement of the marginal supply and demand of the industry and the catalysis of non plague vaccine research and development. According to the national veterinary medicine basic database, in 2021, except for ring vaccine, Pseudorabies Vaccine and swine fever vaccine, the batch issuance of other mainstream vaccine varieties decreased year-on-year. In terms of varieties, ① there was differentiation in the batch issuance of swine vaccine: the batch issuance of foot-and-mouth disease vaccine decreased slightly by 0.17% year-on-year, in which the unit price vaccine decreased by 25.11% year-on-year, and the multivalent vaccine increased by 15.17% year-on-year; The batch issuance of ring vaccine increased by 9.08% year-on-year, of which the round branch double vaccine increased by 40.95%, the round vice double vaccine decreased by 30%, the unit price of ring genetic engineering vaccine increased by 32.73% year-on-year, and the unit price of whole virus inactivated vaccine decreased by 9.50% year-on-year; The batch issuance of Pseudorabies Vaccine increased by 16.41% year-on-year; The batch issuance of blue ear vaccine decreased by 6.57% year-on-year; The batch issuance of classical swine fever vaccine increased by 6.07% year-on-year; The batch issuance of gastroenteritis diarrhea vaccine decreased by 23.88% year-on-year; The batch issuance of porcine parvovirus vaccine decreased by 13.19% year-on-year; The batch issuance of swine JE vaccine decreased by 17.83% year-on-year. ② The issuance of avian vaccine batches fell across the board:
The issuance of three price vaccine batches for avian influenza decreased by 25.42% year-on-year; The batch issuance of Marek’s disease vaccine decreased by 20.77% year-on-year; The batch issuance of Newcastle disease vaccine decreased by 13.77% year-on-year. ③ Among ruminant vaccines, the batch issuance of brucellosis vaccine decreased by 30.27% year-on-year, and the batch issuance of small ruminant disease vaccine decreased by 7.37% year-on-year. ④ Among pet vaccines: rabies vaccine batch issuance decreased by 0.50% year-on-year. Investment perspective: from a fundamental point of view, 2022h2 animal protection industry may meet the marginal improvement at both ends of supply and demand. Before June 22, all veterinary drug manufacturing enterprises need to complete the transformation and acceptance of the new version of veterinary drug GMP. At present, 1633 veterinary drug manufacturing enterprises in China are still dominated by small and micro enterprises, accounting for 43% of enterprises with annual sales of less than 5 million yuan. The implementation of the new version of veterinary drug GMP will significantly improve the investment threshold of veterinary drug enterprises. It is expected that inefficient production capacity will exit one after another next year, and the industry concentration is expected to increase steadily. With the recovery of pig prices in the second half of the year, it is expected to drive the demand growth of vaccines and chemical products, and the supply and demand pattern of the industry may usher in continuous improvement. In addition, the catalytic aspect pays attention to the research and development progress of non plague vaccine. The Ministry of Agriculture plans to promote the emergency evaluation of non plague subunit vaccines, or is expected to accelerate the pace of relevant vaccine research and development and industrial application. At present, the valuation of the dynamic insurance sector is at a historically low level. From the perspective of investment, it is suggested to focus on Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) and other dynamic insurance enterprises with the advantages of research, production and marketing integration.
Risk warning: spread of animal diseases; Intensified market competition; Product quality problems.
