Shenwan photovoltaic auxiliary material index rose for two consecutive days, and recovered after the sharp correction of more than 10% in the whole photovoltaic industry chain recently.
affected by the external market environment, photovoltaic still shows a fluctuating upward trend, and many securities companies are optimistic about the fundamentals of the photovoltaic industry. different from the main modules and cells, some photovoltaic auxiliary materials are not affected by the price rise of upstream raw materials. With strong downstream demand, the profit is stable and good.
Diamond wire is the abbreviation of diamond cutting line. It is a cutting line made by uniformly consolidating diamond powder on the matrix of rigid steel wire. It is mainly used to cut hard materials in industry. with the growth of downstream installed capacity and the increase of demand for silicon wafers, the demand for photovoltaic diamond wires is expected to increase significantly.
The acceleration of photovoltaic installation promotes the strong demand for silicon wafers
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is estimated that , the global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to exceed 210gw in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 30%. The annual demand of the photovoltaic industry is expected to maintain rapid growth and improve quarterly. Among them, the approved scale of phase I project of China scenery base has reached 97gw, and the average annual installed capacity of "photovoltaic" in the whole county is expected to reach 40gw; The installed capacity in the European market is expected to continue to exceed 25gw; The markets of India, Latin America and other third world countries also occupy an important position.
the increase of installed demand drives the supply increment of upstream raw materials. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is estimated that the global nominal capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) silicon will reach about 700000 tons (including granular silicon) by the end of 2021. Considering the impact of measures such as capacity climbing progress and "dual control" of energy consumption, it is expected that the effective capacity will reach about 570000 tons in that year, and the release progress of industrial capacity will be significantly accelerated in 2022, with the nominal capacity at the end of the year or nearly 1.2 million tons, The annual effective capacity is expected to reach about 790000 tons, and the growth of effective capacity may be mainly concentrated in the second half of 2022.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) it is estimated that , 160000 tons of silicon material production capacity will be released successively in the first quarter of 2022, and the price reduction of the industrial chain will greatly stimulate demand, which will be increased quarter by quarter. The price of silicon wafer increased slightly, and the price of Longji silicon wafer increased by 2.4-5.1%, which is the first time to increase the price of silicon wafer since November 30, 2021, fully verifying the strong demand in the downstream.
Diamond wire is the main consumable for silicon wafer cutting
From silicon material to silicon wafer, it needs to go through two stages: ingot casting and slicing. The ingot casting stage is mainly to melt the silicon material and then pull it into a cylindrical silicon ingot. The slicing stage is to cut the cylindrical silicon ingot into square pieces of the same size. At this time, the square pieces are called silicon wafers. The cutting performance of cutting auxiliary materials directly affects the quality of silicon wafer and the photoelectric conversion performance of components.
Since 2015, diamond wire cutting began to replace mortar cutting. Subsequently, monocrystalline and polycrystalline silicon wafer manufacturers successively adopted diamond wire cutting process. In 2017, diamond wire cutting began to be popularized on polycrystalline silicon wafers. At present, diamond wire cutting has been fully adopted in silicon wafers. With the growth of downstream installed capacity and the increase of demand for silicon wafers, the demand for photovoltaic diamond wires is expected to increase significantly.
The market demand of photovoltaic diamond line is increased, and the cost of equipment upgrading is effectively reduced
the global demand for photovoltaic installation drives the silicon wafer shipment to increase significantly, which promotes the market demand for photovoltaic diamond wires , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) it is estimated that , the demand for diamond wires for photovoltaic silicon wafer cutting will be 183.09 million km in 2025, and the annualized growth rate (CAGR) from 2020 to 2025 will be 26.3%. In 2025, the output value of diamond line will be 4.9 billion yuan, and the CAGR from 2020 to 2025 will be 13.1%.
Diamond line can be divided into resin type and electroplating type according to the production process. The electroplating diamond line has been fully penetrated. The technology of electrosectord diamond wire originated overseas and has been gradually localized since 2015. With the superposition of process optimization and intensified competition, the price continues to decline. Localization and large-scale production have reduced the electroplating diamond line from about 1000 yuan / km in 2012 to about 40 yuan / km in June 2021.
In the cost structure of electrosectord diamond wire, the labor cost accounts for 18% and the manufacturing cost accounts for 29%. The increase in the output of a single production line can reduce the unit manufacturing cost and continuously reduce it. At present, Chinese manufacturers dilute the cost through equipment upgrading and further improve their profitability.
Among the related leaders, Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) through the deep integration of industrial chain, equipment self-development, I-wheel reuse, etc., the unit cost is far lower than that of peers. In the near future, it will further lay out diamond powder and bus substrate, further reduce the cost, expand production and consolidate its leading position; Henan Hengxing Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002132) take the lead in opening up the integrated layout of "wire rod yellow wire bus finished product", and the single machine 12 wire machine is put into operation one after another, which is expected to open the cost gap with the second and third echelon manufacturers. Due to the large cost gap of each echelon company, with the continuous launch of low-cost production capacity, the profit is expected to increase, and the leader may stabilize or seize the market share through price reduction, so as to drive the improvement of industry concentration.
Investment strategy
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) believes that the demand for short-term silicon wafer expansion is strong, the cost of equipment upgrading is diluted, the mainstream manufacturers basically reach a price consensus, and the profit is stable and good; The head company's low-cost production capacity has reached production capacity one after another, and the medium-term pattern is expected to continue to be optimized.
The agency recommends paying attention to individual units:
Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) (300861. SZ) : Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) supported domestic diamond wire manufacturers, diamond wire shipments increased rapidly with the rise of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , with an annual production capacity of 53 million kilometers and a market share of more than 50%. Customers include Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , GCL technology, Jingke energy and other mainstream photovoltaic silicon wafer enterprises.
Henan Hengxing Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002132) (002132. SZ) : open up the whole industrial chain of "wire rod yellow wire bus product", and create the first 16 line single machine. The demand of diamond line is strong, and the production is expanded greatly, and the potential of longer has been realized.
Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) (688556. SH) : there are abundant orders for silicon wafer cutting equipment and consumables, and the profit of silicon wafer cutting OEM is expected to continue to increase. The layout of slice cutting technology is leading, which is expected to expand slice OEM for hjt customers and accelerate hjt's cost reduction and efficiency increase.
