A shares have gone out of the worst day since the beginning of the year in 2022.
Today (January 25), the market adjusted significantly, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index fell all the way throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3433.06 points, down 2.58%, the biggest decline in more than a year; Shenzhen composite index fell 2.83%; The gem index fell 2.67%, broke through the 3000 mark and adjusted more than 10% during the year. More than 4300 stocks in the two cities fell and rose only 266. The market theme stocks were depressed collectively, with a northward capital outflow of 3.6 billion, ending the net buying trend for seven consecutive days.
On the disk, only aviation, gold, hotel catering sector market active, Yuan universe, digital money, Baijiu, brokerage, banking concept all fell sharply, subject shares collectively. According to the CITIC industry index, the top three gainers were consumer services, transportation and banking, while the top three gainers were media, comprehensive finance and comprehensive banking. Small cap stocks fell the most, with the National Securities Exchange 2000 down 4.39%.
From the concept sector, the film and television index, online game index and etc index all fell by more than 6%.
What caused the market crash on January 25? Will the decline continue? Is the market worth looking forward to in the year of the tiger? Which sectors have more opportunities? The reporter of China Fund News urgently interviewed more than 20 public offering and fund investors such as China Europe, Huaxia, Huabao, Cathay Pacific, Shanghai Investment Morgan, CITIC Prudential, Western profit, ChuangJin Hexin, Jinying, Jinxin, CAITONG, great wall, Huafu, Xingye, xingyin, Hengyue, RONGTONG, Donghai and honeycomb funds to urgently unwind and pulse the future market of a shares.
These fund companies believe that under the background of the situation in Ukraine, the disturbance of the overseas market, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the strong risk aversion in the pre holiday market, the adjustment pressure of the market itself and other factors have triggered the market adjustment, but the shock does not change the long-term trend of a shares, the structural market in the year of the tiger is expected, and many sectors such as military industry, new energy and high-end consumption are optimistic
many factors induce market adjustment, and the short-term market may still bottom
What triggered today's adjustment? Under the situation of Ukraine, the disturbance of overseas markets, the expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the strong risk aversion in the market before the holiday, the concern about the credit risk of real estate enterprises, and the adjustment pressure of the market itself... All these have become the reasons for the "sharp fall" on January 25 given by the fund company.
Huaxia Fund believes that today's market adjustment, external risks are still an important main reason, especially the recent escalation of the crisis in Ukraine. Globally, investors' risk aversion has increased significantly, and the regional crisis situation is affecting the prices of major assets including Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , industrial metals, stocks and bonds in the short term, which also has a negative impact on the risk appetite of the A-share market.
China Europe Fund believes that the tension in Ukraine has been escalating recently, and the international capital market has made a more violent response to it. The major stock indexes have fluctuated sharply, and the increasingly globalized Chinese market has also been affected to some extent, resulting in a sharp decline in theme concept stocks without substantive performance support. In addition, since the beginning of the year, the hawks of the Federal Reserve have taken a tough stance and constantly emphasized the position of inflation and the prospect of raising interest rates, which greatly increased the possibility of raising interest rates many times during the year. The bottom recovery of the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds in the United States led to a significant decline in the valuation of A-share growth stocks through the impact of the valuation of U.S. stock growth stocks. In addition, this week is the last trading week before the Spring Festival. Transactions in China's A-share market tend to shrink before the festival. Under the current market style shift and the reconfiguration of institutional investors, the decline of market funds is easy to amplify the potential volatility before the festival. Although China's loose policy is constantly transmitting confidence to the market, the transmission of substantive measures may still take some time to show results.
Hengyue Fund believes that the main reason for the sharp decline of A-Shares today is the disturbance of overseas market turmoil under the background of the situation in Ukraine, combined with the possible announcement of interest rate increase at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Thursday, and the market risk aversion intensified in the last week before the spring Festival. After the continuous correction since December last year, investor sentiment is relatively fragile, amplifying the short-term uncertainty.
Cathay Pacific Fund believes that as the Spring Festival approaches this week, A-Shares may shrink to a certain extent. However, there is no lack of heavy information overseas this week. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the resolution of the interest rate meeting in January. The main goal of the meeting is to pave the way for raising interest rates and reducing the balance sheet in March. For the A-share market, the Fed's interest rate meeting may accelerate the bearish out.
CITIC Prudential Fund said that there were several reasons for the sharp decline. First, the European and American stock markets experienced a huge earthquake overnight. The market was worried that the Fed's monetary policy would be tightened too quickly, and even hinted that interest rates would be raised in March. Second, the credit default risk of real estate enterprises still plagued the market, and high-frequency data showed that real estate sales, investment and other data may weaken further in January, The market is worried that the credit risk of real estate enterprises may spread. Third, the market is worried that the strength of steady growth policy faces more constraints, which is less than expected, or the time point is later than expected, and the market may still be relatively pessimistic under the emotional inertia. Fourth, the latest four seasons report of public funds shows that the overall positions of institutions are on the high side. Although the positions of some popular tracks have been reduced, the overall positions are still biased. Although the "manufacturing growth" field has undergone some adjustments, the problem of relatively high stock prices and valuations has not been significantly solved. In the short term, there is a lack of catalyst. Under the background of low overall risk appetite of the market, It still brings some adjustment pressure. Finally, this week is about to usher in the intensive release period of performance forecast. Some companies with poor performance may focus on disclosing performance forecast. Combined with the economic situation in the fourth quarter, the profit expectation of A-Shares may face great downward pressure.
Golden Eagle Fund said that today's market correction may be triggered by geopolitical tensions, especially in the fragile stage of weak market risk appetite at the end of the year and continuous decline in the early stage of the market. From historical experience, asset fluctuations under geographical conflicts are often shock pulses, which will disturb market sentiment and even amplify the original vulnerability of the market. Therefore, the follow-up short-term trends may still be worthy of attention. At present, the existing decline of US stocks has not been further interpreted as the risk diffusion of US stocks on risky assets. Factors such as leverage, liquidity and sentiment have not further triggered stampede selling. In addition, before the Spring Festival, China's capital was weak. Under the resonance of domestic and foreign capital, the profit-making effect of the A-share market decreased significantly.
He Qi, director of equity investment of Western benefit, said that there are two reasons for the recent market adjustment: first, the growth sectors such as new energy, military industry and science and technology performed well in 2021, and the valuations of some individual stocks were overdrawn; Secondly, the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates has increased recently, the global capital market has been turbulent, the market risk appetite has decreased, and the overseas market has also shown a general downward trend.
Wu Qiong, research director of honeycomb fund, said that today's decline of all sectors in the market has a great impact on confidence. The decline in the market may be caused by external sentiment or by funds choosing to sell to avoid the uncertainty of the long Spring Festival holiday. However, he believes that many stocks have entered the range where their performance and valuation match, and the cost performance is gradually showing, Moreover, the government still has many tools to stabilize growth, so there is no need to panic at the current position.
Sun Lei, manager of Jinxin fund, said that the overnight market was brushed by the news of the Russian Ukrainian war. The international market fell sharply and expectations were chaotic. Coupled with the continuous decline of A-Shares since the beginning of the year, confidence was fragile, resulting in an irresistible decline today.
On the whole, the market has entered the stage of strong make-up decline, indicating that the main decline has been completed.
Chen Siyu, fund manager of Shanghai Investment Morgan, believes that the short-term market may still have a bottom shock, but there is no need to be too pessimistic in this position. At present, the bottom support policy continues to be issued, and the market's expectation of interest rate and reserve requirement reduction is also increasing. The bottom of the policy has appeared, and the market bottom and economic bottom are likely to come later. It is not easy for the market to have beta opportunities for the industry as a whole this year, but we should seize the opportunity of excess returns of individual stocks
the spring market can still be expected, and the shock does not change the future market opportunity
Since the beginning of the year, affected by the expectation of overseas interest rate hike, the yield of US bonds has continued to rise. At the same time, the fermentation of geopolitical risks has been superimposed, and the overseas market fluctuated sharply. Under the background of accelerating global capital flows, there is a certain risk of resonance weakening between A-Shares and US stocks. Affected by this, the market sentiment has weakened recently, and the risk appetite has shrunk significantly. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 5.68% since the beginning of the year. On the whole, the overvalued individual stocks have decreased significantly, and the related fields of steady growth have fallen against each other.
For the year of the tiger market, many fund managers said that they are still optimistic about the stock market this year. With the repair of risk appetite after the festival, the market still has the opportunity to rebound.
Huabao Fund believes that although the market continues to weaken in the process of fluctuation, the adjustment range and duration of this round of index are relatively limited and the sustainability will not be particularly strong. It is expected that after the festival, with the repair of risk appetite, especially the appearance of the effect of stable growth policy, the market still has the opportunity to rebound. The "market bottom" is gradually approaching. It is suggested to continue to follow the policy of stable growth and lay out blue chips to meet the starting point of the market in the first half of the year.
Huaxia Fund believes that although the market continues to weaken in the process of fluctuation, the adjustment range and duration of this round of index are relatively limited. Judging from the nature, the probability is similar to the decline at the end of February 2021 and early March 2020, and the sustainability will not be particularly strong. It is expected that after the festival, with the repair of risk appetite, especially the appearance of the effect of stable growth policy, the market still has the opportunity to rebound.
Li Dehui, fund manager of Shanghai Investment Morgan, said he was optimistic about the stock market this year. At present, monetary and fiscal policies are already in force. He believes that the macro economy will stabilize in the second half of the year and the stock market is expected to fluctuate upward throughout the year.
Cathay Pacific Fund said that looking forward to the future, the easing intensity may be amplified step by step before the economic data is reversed, so there is no need to be too pessimistic about the post holiday market.
Wang Jing, chief strategic analyst of ChuangJin Hexin fund, believes that the continuous systemic risk of A-Shares is small, but there must be fluctuations. The strength and rhythm of the introduction and implementation of the short-term stable growth policy will have a great impact on the short-term trend of the market and the expectations of investors, but they are still full of confidence in the stable growth of the government. After the external impact is reflected, it is expected that A-Shares will pick up. In the current market, it is suggested that the equity and debt should be balanced. When the market is depressed, you can enjoy your point of view and be cautious when excited. It should be equipped with some stable and low volatility equity assets or fixed income + products.
Hengyue Fund believes that from the Spring Festival to the two sessions, it is expected to see positive signals such as continuous development of infrastructure and accelerated credit. The undervalued style related to steady growth is expected to remain dominant before the two sessions, but the space for further rise is also relatively limited. The sharp decline in growth style may come to an end. After the festival, when the mood is repaired and listed companies successively disclose the pre increase of first quarter results, it may enter the layout range.
Golden Eagle Fund believes that the short-term weak performance of the A-share market does not mean that the spring market is gone, or just the delay of "agitation". Before the two sessions, China was entering the observation period of "steady growth" and "moderately advanced policy force", and China's liquidity environment was loose. After the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January and after the Spring Festival, it is expected that the suppression factors of peripheral and Chinese funds may subside, and the "good start" effects such as subsequent bank credit and fund issuance may boost the market.
CITIC Prudential fund expects that the above-mentioned emotional factors may still inhibit market performance near the Spring Festival, but in the future, with the continuous introduction of "steady growth" policy details, the possible improvement of forward-looking indicators and the gradual stabilization of China's growth, market sentiment is also expected to be repaired.
He Qi, director of equity investment of Western benefit, said that there are two different structural markets expected in the A-share market in 2022: the bright spot in the first stage may be steady growth, and the bright spot in the second stage may be scientific and technological growth; At the same time, the steady growth direction of Finance and real estate has performed well this year, and there are obvious signs of style switching in the market. He judged that the trend may continue for some time, but the medium and long-term main line of the market may still be growth.
RONGTONG Fund said that the downward performance has become the consensus expectation of the market, which is difficult to become the core factor leading the market. At present, China's policy is also in the stage of continuous easing. With the interest rate cut and the decline of LPR, the bill interest rate has increased significantly recently, which indicates that the credit has gradually stabilized and rebounded. The market may be in the final stage of adjustment, so there is no need to be too pessimistic. With the lifting of overseas adverse factors and the superposition of China's policy friendly environment, the A-share market may usher in a stage from defensive to offensive.
Great Wall Fund said that the current liquidity environment has left sufficient and safe space for the future development of a shares. At present, the market sentiment and policies are hovering at the bottom, which will be a relatively painful period. However, with the annual reports of listed companies entering the intensive disclosure period and the convening of the national two sessions, the fundamentals and policies will bring more certainty to the market. At that time, the market is expected to have a bright future.
Huafu fund research department believes that steady growth is still possible in Q1. The time points for future verification include the local two sessions, the credit extension in mid February and the two sessions. The macro liquidity is loose, the credit is expected to be upward, but the wide credit has not been completed, and the micro liquidity supports the overall valuation of a shares.
Societe Generale Fund predicted that if there is no new impact overseas during the Spring Festival, the A-share market is expected to stabilize and rebound after the festival. From historical experience, in the year of loose policy, the performance of A-share market is good, and the adjustment is often short-term. Therefore, on the whole, we are still cautiously optimistic about the market of the whole year.
Donghai Fund believes that it is not easy to be overly pessimistic at present. After the Spring Festival, the local government will probably gradually fulfill the "good start" appeal of steady growth. With the end of the Winter Olympic Games and the two local sessions, the temperature will gradually rise, and A-Shares will also usher in the warmest policy friendly period of the year while the performance window is empty
"steady growth" is still the main line of future investment, focusing on new energy, military industry, optional consumption, etc.
In terms of investment opportunities, many fund managers said that they are still optimistic about new energy, military industry and other science and technology sectors, and "steady growth" is still the main investment line in the future.
Huabao Fund believes that in terms of allocation, it is recommended to continue to grasp the main line of stable growth + undervalued market in the policy window period of the local and national sessions. First, the real estate chain benefiting from the loose margin of real estate policy, including real estate enterprises, property, household appliances, decoration building materials, etc; Second, new and old infrastructure directly related to steady growth; Third, banks and securities companies with high-quality fundamental support + great potential for valuation repair. After the current round of negative market sentiment has been gradually digested and the "two sessions" window period has passed, it is suggested to gradually increase the consumption sector, including some food processing industries that benefit from the logic of price increase, as well as catering, tourism, transportation, etc. that benefit from the repair of the epidemic. In addition, science and technology sectors such as new energy and consumer electronics are expected to remain high in 2022.
Huaxia Fund believes that under the steady growth policy, China's economy is expected to see improvement in the first quarter, and the power investment and new energy chain, real estate infrastructure industry chain and digital economy related to steady growth will still be relatively prosperous. After substantial adjustment, the allocation cost performance has been significantly improved, and the future market can be more optimistic.
China Europe Fund said that the recent decline in the market has released the risk of A-share valuation differentiation, and A-share has gradually emerged the opportunity of reallocation, especially in the related fields such as optional consumption, finance and infrastructure investment, which are more sensitive to the theme of economic stabilization.
It is suggested that China should focus on investment opportunities under the main line of China's steady economic growth, such as Baijiu, household appliances and service consumption, and energy infrastructure and new energy power operators involved in dual carbon fields.
Cathay Pacific Fund said that in terms of style, "steady growth" is still the main line for some time in the future. The space for sharp decline in growth style may be relatively limited, but it may still not be dominant in the short term. We can pay relatively attention to the sectors with low valuation.
Li Dehui, fund manager of Shanghai Investment Morgan, said that in terms of investment opportunities, he is relatively optimistic about medium and long-term growth sectors, such as new energy vehicles, technology, wealth management, high-end consumption and so on.
CITIC Prudential Fund said that in terms of style, "steady growth" is still the main line of the future stage, and the space for the sharp decline of the growth style may be relatively limited. The "steady growth" style may last until about the end of the first quarter. At that time, it may be a turning point for the style to return to the growth style more obviously.
He Qi, director of equity investment of Western Lide, said that since it is judged that steady growth at the beginning of 2022 is the main line of the market, structural attention is paid to the direction of steady growth, specifically the real estate and infrastructure industry chain; Years ago, there were many market adjustments, and the negative response was relatively full. It is expected that the follow-up market is expected to stabilize.
Golden Eagle Fund believes that in terms of industry allocation, before the Spring Festival and before the "stable growth" policy has not been fully implemented, the risk appetite of A-share funds is still inclined to defense. In the short term, it is more inclined to the main line of "steady growth" of undervalued Value Catalyzed by expected policies, namely bank real estate chain, new and old infrastructure chain and mass consumption. New energy, military industry and other science and technology sectors may still maintain a high boom in 2022. After this round of adjustment, in the subsequent intensive disclosure period of the quarterly report, the business direction with high performance and cost-effective performance can still be adjusted.
Wang Siyu, general manager of the research and Development Department of xingyin fund, said that looking forward to the weak economic growth and industrial breakthrough in the industry allocation after the Spring Festival in 2022, the main line of A-share allocation in 2022 is "industrial trend + profit repair". Around the main line allocation of "high-quality development", we look at the transmission from PPI to CPI, The damaged repair of manufacturing industry and the realization of price increase of consumer goods point to allocation opportunities, as well as the development trend of "carbon neutralization" and "innovation driven" industries.
Hengyue Fund believes that in terms of industry allocation, it pays attention to water conservancy, pipe network, 5g + industrial Internet and building materials in the traditional infrastructure real estate chain in the short term, as well as the middle and lower reaches consumption expected to improve the fundamentals. In the medium term, it continues to be optimistic about the new energy industry chain and medicine with high prosperity and continuous adjustment.
Donghai Fund believes that in the medium term, the superposition of valuation advantages in the direction of steady growth (finance real estate infrastructure chain) is still expected to obtain comparative advantages; From a bottom-up perspective, companies and industries with relatively good annual report forecast are expected to regain the favor of the market. In the medium and long term, we are still optimistic about investment opportunities in high growth directions represented by new energy, military industry and semiconductors.
Qi Teng, general manager of Qianhai special account department of Hang Seng, said that he is not pessimistic about this year's a shares. Qi Teng believes that this year's A-Shares may show a "V" shape trend and a slow bull trend for a long time. From the industry level, the high-end manufacturing industry represented by new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and semiconductors has an increasing weight in a shares. These industries have long-term development logic. When the valuation is adjusted back to a reasonable range, they will have investment value in the long run.
Jin Zicai, assistant general manager of CAITONG fund and director of fund investment department, said that with the stabilization of domestic demand and strict control of the epidemic in 2022, the inflation rate will gradually pick up. From the demand side, industries with higher probability than expected will be in various fields of service industry and mandatory consumption. If the industry still has price elasticity or roe elasticity, it will be the main direction.
