On the penultimate trading day before the Festival, A-Shares plunged into hot search, and more than 4300 stocks in the two markets fell. Some institutions said that the risk aversion of funds is heating up, the market hot spots are scattered, and the operation is difficult. Near the Spring Festival, it is mainly to avoid risks. It is also the best policy to keep waiting and waiting for opportunities in the near future.
Stunned, netizens mocked themselves, "have a green year together!"
On the penultimate trading day before the festival, the "stock market" fell directly to the hot search.
Today, the market fell unilaterally all day, and all major indexes fell by more than 2%, and basically closed at the lowest point. As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 2.58%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 2.83% and the gem index fell 2.67%. Northbound funds sold a net 3.574 billion yuan throughout the day, including 1.372 billion yuan for the Shanghai Stock connect and 2.201 billion yuan for the Shenzhen Stock connect.
a little red in the green
The daily limit of individual stocks in the two cities is less than 30, and the number of individual stocks rising is less than 300. Overall, individual stocks fell more and rose less, and more than 4300 stocks in the two cities fell. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 936.8 billion yuan, down from 72.6 billion yuan in the previous trading day, and the market volume fell in the late trading day.
On the disk, only precious metals, airports, hotels and restaurants rose, while the rest fell.
According to China stock market news choice, precious metals led the rise with an increase of 2.82% in Shenwan industry classification. In addition, airports, hotels and catering sectors that had been greatly affected by the epidemic also bucked the trend today, with increases of 0.73% and 0.7% respectively.
In the concept sector, RCS concept, radio and television, cloud games, Huawei shengteng, Huawei Euler, NFT concept and other sectors led the decline.
As for the phenomenon that today's stock market is green as a whole, while precious metals, airports, hotels and restaurants are turning red against the trend, Xia Fengguang, fund manager of private placement paipai network, told the reporter of the international finance news that there is a negative correlation between gold and the stock market in history, and the decline of the stock market has also enhanced the attraction of gold. The trend of gold is expected to remain active.
"Driven by factors such as the peak consumption season of precious metals before the festival and the increased demand for capital hedging, the price of precious metals showed a certain upward trend, driving the short-term strong performance of the precious metal sector." Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu investment, told the reporter of international finance.
Yuan Huaming added that the progress of covid-19 vaccine and oral medicine has increased the possibility of the improvement of the epidemic this year. The improvement of the epidemic and the marginal relaxation of relevant control policies will lead to the repair of catering needs of airports and hotels; The Spring Festival holiday is also the peak consumption season for aviation and hotel catering. The demand boost is expected to be the main driving force driving the rise of the aviation airport and hotel catering sector. In addition, the recent strong RMB exchange rate has reduced the foreign debt burden of airlines, which is also helpful to reduce the operating pressure of airlines.
why are A-Shares "falling endlessly"
Today, the stock market plummeted, making "funds", "stock market", "stocks" and "A shares" on the microblog hot search list one after another.
Some netizens said, "today's stock makes me mistakenly think that what I opened is the health code." Some netizens mocked themselves, "have a green year together!"
What are the reasons for the continuous adjustment of the A-share market since 2022?
"At present, China's policy and stock market fundamentals have not changed much. The decline is more from the ups and downs of sentiment." Xia Fengguang told the reporter of the international finance news that the reasons for the recent poor trend of the A-share market are probably the following:
First, the impact of overseas markets is currently under the background of the rising expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Stock markets in the United States and even Europe have plummeted continuously, and NASDAQ has fallen by more than 10% in a single month, which has a certain psychological impact on a shares. At present, the interest rate gap between China and the United States has been greatly reduced. If the interest rate increase process of the Federal Reserve is faster than expected, it will form a certain constraint on China's credit easing policy.
Second, from the perspective of the endogenous structure of a shares, the trend of the large financial sector has been relatively strong since the new year, which has formed a certain impetus to the stock index. However, hot spots such as new energy, carbon neutralization and metauniverse have cooled rapidly, and the market profit-making effect has collapsed rapidly, which has a great impact on the confidence of the market.
As for the reasons for the recent continuous adjustment of a shares, Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times, believes that the increment of the new base currency in January is less than that in December last year. Coupled with the eagle tone of the Federal Reserve, the index has declined since the beginning of the year.
So, why did A-Shares plummet today?
Yuan Huaming said that today's adjustment of the A-share market is mainly due to the uncertainty brought by the Russian Ukrainian crisis. Once it happens, it will have a great impact on the global financial market, including A-shares. At the same time, the recent A-share market is weak, investors will be more cautious before the festival, and their response to negative news will be amplified. Despite the Russian Ukrainian crisis, on the one hand, the A-share market has been under the pressure of the downward economic growth and the lower than expected profits of some listed enterprises. On the other hand, it also has the support of economic toughness, favorable capital market reform and the continuous introduction of stable growth policies.
Zhao Yuanyuan believes that the sharp adjustment of today's index is accompanied by a large outflow of funds going north. Personally, I think it is related to the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve and the situation in Russia and Ukraine that may trigger a new round of inflation.
is the "market bottom" approaching
According to Xia Fengguang, after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January, US stocks may find the bottom, and A-Shares should be able to rise synchronously before and after the Spring Festival.
Zhao Yuanyuan said that in the context of the shrinking volume of transactions before the festival, the impact of this capital outflow will be amplified. The Fed meeting will be clear on Thursday morning, and there may be a window for the index to rebound slightly. The impact of geopolitical progress is unknown. If the risk is fully fermented before the festival, low positions may not be required during the Spring Festival. After the festival, it is possible to correct this bad situation that has no real impact on China's fundamentals. However, due to the low probability that the new base currency in February is higher than that in January, the rebound range will also be relatively limited.
Yuan Huaming said that the time and cycle of this round of adjustment are relatively sufficient, and the market has the momentum and conditions to stabilize and rebound. However, once the Russian Ukrainian crisis occurs, the impact on the global financial market, including the A-share market, cannot be underestimated, so the recovery of the A-share market at least needs to wait until the uncertainty of the Russian Ukrainian event is eliminated or digested.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that capital risk aversion is heating up, the market hot spots are scattered, and the operation is difficult. It is mainly risk aversion near the Spring Festival. It is also the best policy to keep waiting and waiting for the opportunity in the near future. In the short term, the periodic adjustment of PV, new energy, lithium battery and other track sectors in the fire last year has not ended, so it is recommended to avoid it. The speculation on prefabricated dishes, digital economy and other topics has ebbed in a large area, and there is no mainstream hot spot to form a market, so it is difficult to make money. Short term funds are mainly defensive, which can follow the trend and follow the operation of mainstream funds. Focus on undervalued defense sectors such as banking, real estate, insurance, food and beverage. At the same time, the first quarter is the release period of the annual report. At present, it is an opportunity for the potential annual report to exceed the expectations of individual stocks. The performance of the coal sector was relatively strong last week, or it is related to the sharp increase in the annual report performance of individual stocks in the recent sector.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the "policy bottom" has been made clear, the "emotional bottom" is coming, and the "market bottom" is gradually approaching. It is suggested to continue to focus on the "two low" layout of blue chips to meet the starting point of the market in the first half of the year. First of all, the data show that the time point of the greatest downward pressure on the economy has passed, but the dependence on policies is still strong. The local "two sessions" show that there is an obvious trend of stabilizing the economy with investment, and after the monetary force is stronger than expected, the policies of other ministries and local governments are forming a joint force, and the "policy bottom" has been clear. Secondly, the emotional catharsis caused by the collapse of high-level groups is coming to an end. The short-term adjustment of the market deviates from both the trend of monetary easing and the fundamental trend of policy support. The differentiation of internal and external capital behavior is also evidence that the "emotional bottom" is coming. Finally, with the continuous improvement of the consensus on the main line of stable growth and the end of emotional catharsis, it is expected that market funds will resume inflow, and the "market bottom" is gradually approaching. It is suggested to stick to the main line of "stable growth" and continue to layout high-quality blue chips around the "two low positions" to meet the starting point of the market in the first half of the year.
