Looking back on the fund industry in 2021, top stream fund managers have “stepped down from the altar”, but a group of cutting-edge fund managers have emerged. From the scale change of the four seasons newspaper, investors are “voting with their feet”.
On the one hand, the relatively extreme structural market has brought room for many cutting-edge fund managers to show their skills. The sharp and flexible investment style is like a duck to water in 2021. Many cutting-edge fund managers have outstanding performance, which has attracted a large number of investors and the scale has risen rapidly, Many new generation fund managers with less than three years of investment experience ranked among the 10 billion fund managers in 2021, and the management scale of some fund managers even increased nearly 300 times a year.
At the same time, due to the style switching and the sharp decline of core assets after the Spring Festival last year, some top flow fund managers were slightly lonely in 2021. Some of the top flow of 100 billion fell below the volume of 100 billion, and some fund managers admitted that 2021 was a year when investment philosophy and logic were greatly challenged.
the scale of many cutting-edge enterprises has soared
Take Cui Chenlong, manager of Qianhai open source fund, who won the first and second place in public offering in 2021, as an example. By the end of 2021, the total management scale of Cui Chenlong had reached 40.962 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 40.3 billion yuan compared with 674 million yuan at the beginning of 2021, a year-on-year increase of nearly 60 times.
His representative work Qianhai Kaiyuan public utility, which won the championship, grew particularly rapidly in the second half of 2021, with a scale of 25.816 billion yuan by the end of the year, an increase of 9.187 billion yuan compared with the end of the third quarter; At the end of 2020, the scale of the fund was only 484 million yuan.
After that, Baoying advantageous industry, which won the third place, also received a large influx of investors. The total management scale of its fund manager Chen Jinwei also exceeded the 10 billion mark at the end of 2021, rising to 12.26 billion yuan, nearly 300 times higher than the 41 million yuan at the end of 2020.
Another example is Liu Changchang, a prominent Hua’an fund last year. By the end of last year, its management scale had increased to 17.852 billion yuan, an increase of 17.654 billion yuan compared with 196 million yuan at the beginning of the year, and the scale had increased by more than 90 times; Hua’an culture and sports health, which is under its management, was known as the “line drawing fund manager” by investors in 2021 with nearly 70% annual income and less than 9% maximum pullback.
On the one hand, there are reasons for the small base, that is, these fund managers were still unknown “novices” a year ago, and the management scale was small; On the other hand, it is enough to see the enthusiasm of investors for the pursuit of blue chip funds.
some top flow scale fell
it is worth noting that while the above-mentioned new generations are gaining fame, top flow fund managers are slightly lonely in 2021.
For example, at the end of 2021, the management scale of the former 100 billion top flow and Jingshun Great Wall Fund Liu Yanchun fell below 100 billion. By the end of 2021, the total scale was 97.85 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.066 billion yuan compared with 102.9 billion yuan in the third quarterly report; In addition, the scale of Yi Fangda Zhang Kun decreased slightly to 101.9 billion yuan in the fourth quarter; On the contrary, the management scale of “medicine goddess” Ge Lan has been rising due to a lot of funds to copy the bottom of medicine. It has increased to 110.339 billion by the end of 2021, which is not only the top stream of 100 billion, but also ranked first above Zhang Kun.
On a larger scale, according to the data of Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) Research Report, by the end of 2021, the total management scale of the top 20 active equity fund managers was 976.718 billion yuan, accounting for 23.76% of all active equity funds, and the management scale continued to decline compared with 995.68 billion yuan in the third quarterly report.
In the final analysis, most of this change stems from the general performance of top flow fund managers in 2021. The core assets that were once “thick eyebrows and big eyes” suffered a sharp decline after the Spring Festival in 2021, and the heavy positions of funds such as consumption and medicine fell endlessly. The huge management scale of 50 billion or even hundreds of billions also limited the position adjustment of these top flow fund managers.
In the four seasons, many fund managers have some responses to this. For example, Zhang Kun rarely talked about the macroeconomic situation and policies, saying that “to do a good job in investment, it is more important to stare at the game rather than the scoreboard”; Liu Yanchun encouraged investors and himself at the end of the quarterly report, “the most difficult stage of investment has passed. Be patient and the value will always return”; Jiao Wei, who has always been full of literary talent, admitted in the quarterly report that 2021 was a year when the investment philosophy and logic of fund managers were greatly challenged. “In line with a strong desire for survival, he reflected on the change logic and investment problems of the market, and made a parallel action of persistence and adjustment.”
investors need to be more cautious in “voting with their feet”
Whether it is the sharp increase in the scale of new fund managers or the decline in the scale of top flow fund managers, behind the increase or decrease in the scale is investors’ “voting with their feet”. The eye-catching performance, capital influx and sharp rise in scale are the way these top flow fund managers once became famous and are taking.
However, once the management scale increases significantly, fund managers are often faced with the problem of how to broaden the management radius. As the saying goes, it is good to turn around when the ship is small, and the excessive management scale will bring difficulties to the investment layout, position adjustment and stock exchange. This is not only the problem that these top-level fund managers are facing, but also the problem that these cutting-edge fund managers are about to or have begun to face.
In addition, investors often buy after the performance runs out. At this time, most of them are already in the second half of the market, so it is easy to buy at the high point, chase up and kill down. This phenomenon has been reflected in the consumer fund in early 2021 and the new energy fund in early 2022.
History will not simply repeat, but it will always press the same rhyme. Investors need to be more cautious when chasing star fund managers.
