In 2022, the A-share market showed an overall adjustment pattern. The bank index rose against the trend, ranking first in the cumulative increase of 24 wind secondary industries, reaching 6.04%.
The research enthusiasm of institutions for listed banks has also improved. Seven banks have welcomed the research of institutional investors in 2022. The bank’s credit plan and net interest margin outlook for the new year are the focus of general attention of institutions.
institutions frequently investigate
According to the data, from January 1 to January 24, 2022, a total of Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) 7 banks were surveyed by institutional investors, with a total of 29 times of being surveyed and 246 institutions participating in the survey.
In terms of the number of times investigated, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) attracted the most attention, and both ushered in 6 institutional investor surveys during the period; Both Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) and Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) have received 4 investigations; Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) all welcomed three surveys.
From the number of institutions participating in the survey, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) are the most “circle fans”, welcoming 80 and 57 institutions respectively. More than 20 institutions came to Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) for research.
The types of institutions participating in the research banks are also very rich, including public funds, securities companies, insurance companies, insurance asset management companies, bank financing companies, foreign-funded institutions, etc. On January 13, Morgan Stanley and capital group participated in the on-site investigation of Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) . On January 17, China Southern Fund and Everbright financial participated in the research of Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) in the form of video.
“The beginning of each year is the key node for banks to formulate credit supply plans and business plans for the new year, and it is also one of the time nodes that institutional investors pay most attention to every year. At this time, institutional research is of great significance.” A brokerage analyst told the China Securities Journal.
net interest margin is expected to stabilize
Institutional research details show that the new year’s credit delivery plan, net interest margin outlook, asset quality outlook and intermediary business income outlook are the most concerned topics of institutional investors, and many banks have also responded to them.
Small and micro loans are the key areas of strength of banks. Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) said that the proportion of new loans of “two small” (small and micro enterprises and small enterprises) in the total new loans was initially set to be about 65% in 2022. On January 13, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) said in the survey that it is expected that more than two-thirds of the loans will be invested in the personal field in 2022.
Banks are also optimistic about asset quality. Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) said that looking forward to 2022, the non-performing rate of the bank is expected to maintain a steady decline and remain stable within 1%; The proportion of concerned loans further decreased and the provision coverage further increased.
Bank net interest margin is also expected to stabilize marginally. Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) said that from the asset side, on the one hand, under the downward trend of the quoted interest rate (LPR) in the loan market and the requirements of the central bank to optimize the credit structure to support the real economy, the interest rate of new loans is expected to decline slightly in 2022; On the other hand, the bank will focus on promoting the development of credit microenterprises, direct banks and other businesses, continue to strengthen loan pricing management and alleviate the downward pressure on asset income.
The collection plan of each bank is also more detailed. Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) said that in terms of financial management business, the bank will expand the scale of financial management through various means in 2022. In terms of consignment business, the target task of medium collection has increased compared with that in 2021. In the future, cooperation with insurance companies will be strengthened, and trust business products dominated by fixed collection and subject equity will be appropriately represented.
configuration value further improved
According to the data, in 2022, the overall performance of bank stocks was brilliant. Except for Lanzhou bank, the secondary new stock, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) increased by more than 15%.
Interest rate adjustment expectation or one of the catalysts. Haitong international pointed out that when the interest rate is lowered, the bank’s asset side yield and liability side cost rate will decline, which not only has the effect of offsetting each other, but also the investment assets (such as bonds) held by the bank may obtain investment income due to the reduction of interest rate. In addition, the interest rate cut plays a supporting role in the basic mask of macro-economy, helps to improve the expectation of credit risk, and improves the internal value of bank stocks.
“We are really optimistic about bank stocks in 2022.” The above brokerage analysts told the China Securities Journal that the current market expectations for the real estate industry have changed and have confidence in the asset quality of listed banks. In terms of performance, the net profit of most banks increased by more than 20% year-on-year in 2021, forming good performance expectations and conducive to valuation repair.
According to the data, nearly 20 of the 42 A-share listed banks have disclosed the performance express in 2021, and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit is more than 10%, and the year-on-year growth rate of Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) is more than 25%.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) predicts that the central bank is expected to continue to launch total and structural monetary instruments in the future, further promote the stable growth of total credit and boost economic expectations. It is suggested to pay attention to the allocation value of bank stocks.
