Live up to expectations, "Sea King" handed in a satisfactory answer in 2021!
On the evening of January 24, Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) released the announcement of annual performance increase in 2021. It is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 89.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 799.3%, about 240 million yuan per day.
In sharp contrast to Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co.Ltd(600026) which has just predicted a net profit loss of about 5 billion yuan in 2021, Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) has achieved remarkable results, which is mainly due to the explosion of Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) main container shipping and related businesses in 2021.
In terms of share price, Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) once walked out of the amazing rise of ten times the big bull stocks, but it has been corrected successively in the past six months. Looking forward to 2022, will the company usher in a change?
net profit increased nearly 8 times in advance
On the evening of January 24, Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) issued an announcement on the advance increase of annual performance in 2021. It is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 89.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 799.3%. According to the preliminary calculation of the company, during the reporting period, the freight volume (TEUs) of the company's container shipping business is expected to be about 26.912 million TEUs, an increase of about 567500 TEUs, an increase of about 2.15% compared with the same period of last year.
As for the main reasons for the pre increase in performance, Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) said that in 2021, under the influence of multiple factors such as repeated epidemic, increased demand and limited supply, the global logistics supply chain continued to be challenged and impacted by complex situations such as port congestion, container shortage and inland transportation delay, and the relationship between supply and demand of container transportation continued to be tense. During the reporting period, the average value of China's export container freight rate composite index (CCFI) was 2615.54 points, with a year-on-year increase of 165.69%. The company overcomes the superimposed influence of multiple factors such as global epidemic, actively integrates into China's international double cycle construction, gives full play to the supporting role of container logistics supply chain, always adheres to the service concept of "customer-centered", and fully ensures global transportation services through measures such as stable transportation capacity, guaranteed container supply and excellent service.
According to the data released this time, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter of Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) 2021 was about 21.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 257.51%, but a month on month decrease of 28.87%.
Nevertheless, the company's performance is still commendable throughout the year, with a net profit of nearly 90 billion, equivalent to a daily profit of about 240 million. The company has previously said many times that it is expected to have the conditions for cash dividends before the end of 2021, and the specific dividend plan will be disclosed together with the 2021 annual report after the end of this fiscal year.
The share price of rose 10 times a year
Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) is the core business component of COSCO Shipping Group and has the largest container shipping service supply chain in China. According to the 2021 interim report, Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) 97% of the revenue comes from container shipping and related businesses.
Maritime transportation has always been an important part of international trade. About 80% of the global trade volume and more than 70% of the trade volume are completed by maritime transportation. It is reported that shipping can be mainly divided into dry bulk cargo transportation, container transportation and oil transportation. The supply-demand relationship of the three sectors is different, and ships are not common, so the performance growth logic of Companies in the sector is also different, which is also the reason for the large performance gap of shipping enterprises that recently released performance forecast. Among them, container transportation is mainly non cyclical products such as daily necessities and light industrial products. Downstream customers are scattered, and shipping companies have strong bargaining power.
In the second half of 2020, although the covid-19 epidemic situation in European and American countries was suspended, their daily necessities, medical devices and epidemic prevention materials seriously needed to be imported, the demand for container transportation increased, and the container turnover efficiency decreased, resulting in a global container shortage, and the phenomenon of "one container is difficult to find" was repeatedly reported, China's export container freight rate composite index (CCFI) has reached record highs.
With the continuous rise of container freight rates, the leading container shipping enterprise Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) has ushered in a major performance explosion since the middle of 2020, and the company's share price has also started to rise continuously.
In terms of H shares, at the end of May 2020, Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) share price once reached a low of HK $1.46, while at the beginning of July 2021, it rose to HK $17.48, an increase of 10.9 times. In terms of a shares, it rose from 2.41 yuan to 25.69 yuan, an increase of 9.7 times.
However, in the past six months, Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) share price has been corrected one after another. As of January 24, 2022, Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) A shares closed at 16.62 yuan / share, down 30% from the highest point. Among them, since the beginning of 2022, the company's share price has fallen by 11%.
According to the data of choice, as of December 31, there were Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) among the top ten heavy positions of 48 funds, holding a total of 44.9855 million shares, a decrease of 48.72% compared with the previous quarter; The market value of the shareholding was 841 million yuan, a decrease of 675 million yuan over the end of the previous quarter, ranking behind 200 in all fund heavy positions.
In addition, it is worth noting that Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) recently announced that the ban on 1.328 billion shares held by COSCO Shipping Group, the indirect controlling shareholder (accounting for 8.29% of the total share capital of the company), was lifted on January 24. These shares were fixed to increase three years ago. At present, the market value of the lifted ban is about 22.2 billion, with a floating profit of more than 18 billion yuan.
Will these shares be listed and circulated in the short term? On October 18, 2021, COSCO Shipping Group and its persons acting in concert implemented the first shareholding increase in the company and promised not to reduce their shareholding in the company during the implementation period of shareholding increase (within 6 months from the date of the first shareholding increase) and within the legal period.
How long can the shipping boom last?
It can be said that in the repeated epidemic, the demand growth, limited supply and other factors led to the shortage of containers, resulting in the continuous rise of freight rates, which also led to the sharp increase of Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) profits. So, looking forward to 2022, what is the trend of freight rate?
According to the latest research report of Huachuang securities, the background of this round of freight rate market is that the traditional price game ship cargo cooperation mode leads to the lack of toughness of the supply chain, and the shortage of effective transport capacity under the catalysis of the epidemic spreads from front-end ships and docks to back-end storage yards, trucks, railways and other collection and distribution links, forming a systematic supply-demand mismatch of the whole industry chain.
It is estimated that the spot freight rate may remain high before the third quarter of 2022: especially on the supply side, there is a "barrel effect" in the turnover of the centralized transportation supply chain. From the margin, the current "shortest board" lies in the inland collection and distribution in Europe and America, which is subject to the problems of capacity bottleneck, labor shortage and the connection efficiency of all links of the supply chain, which is expected to be difficult to solve in the short term, Therefore, the loss of effective supply in 22 years may still exceed 10%.
Zheng Jingwen, senior market analyst at Shanghai International Shipping Research Center of Shanghai Maritime University, believes that with the gradual recovery of the global economy, the substitution effect of China's exports will gradually weaken. At the same time, with the complete elimination of epidemic subsidies and the tightening of fiscal policies in European and American countries, the consumption momentum will weaken, and the demand for container shipping may weaken. However, the epidemic trend will still be the most important uncertain factor affecting the development of Global trade and the global container transportation market. There is a possibility of repetition, which will continue to contain the global consumption structure and replenishment demand, and the decline of centralized transportation demand may have twists and turns.
At present, the core factor affecting the freight rate is the fleet supply. If the port congestion cannot make a substantive breakthrough, the container freight rate may continue to operate at a high level. However, at present, the high operation of the container freight rate has aroused great concern of the regulatory authorities of various countries, and there is little possibility of further significant increase in the freight rate in the future. In the second half of the year, with the easing of port congestion, the freight rate is expected to be corrected. However, due to the sharp rise of various costs and the liner company's abandonment of the strategy of low price competition, the possibility of steep fall of freight rate is less.
as of January 21, 2022, China's export container freight rate composite index (CCFI) was 3555.24, another record high.
