Looking back on Monday’s A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, and the stock index fluctuated at the beginning of the session. Then, under the leadership of subject stocks, the stock index rebounded for a time, while the heavyweights cooperated with the upward attack to make the index turn red smoothly, and the performance of the three indexes was eye-catching; In the afternoon, the Shanghai index sorted out near the red market position, while the gem index rose again, with a strong overall performance.
As mentioned in Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) , at present, the A-share market still continues the structural market, and the market trading activity is warmer than that in previous weeks. in the last week before the Spring Festival, the two cities are expected to recover some “lost land”, but the momentum of trend rise is still insufficient, and more may be the technical rise after continuous correction .
The agency also pointed out that on the one hand, the epidemic in China is still fermenting, or has a phased impact on economic fundamentals and market confidence. On the other hand, overseas liquidity recovery has led to a continuous correction in the external market. The technology sector that bears the brunt may have a “resonance” impact on the A-share growth sector and a negative interference on market sentiment. At this stage, defensive play may still be dominant, and the structural market under the theme of valuation repair has not changed. We still suggest to focus on the allocation of undervalued target of large market blue chip.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that on Monday, the stock index was first depressed and then raised, and the flat market closed. The trading volume of the two cities decreased significantly, selling pressure decreased significantly, and the continued net inflow of funds going north boosted market confidence. It is expected that the market is expected to stabilize in repeated shocks, and pay attention to the rotation rhythm of the sector and the change of volume energy . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, household appliances, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
As for the future market, Caixin securities mentioned that the most dangerous period of market has passed, and there is no significant decline in the follow-up index . However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the low willingness of capital transaction, it is difficult for track stocks, as a popular sector, to regain their upward trend in the short term. We expect that before the Spring Festival, the index will mainly go down slightly or fluctuate, and the gem index may tug at 2900-3200 points repeatedly. After the Spring Festival, with the return of funds to the stock market and the restoration of pessimism, the market index is expected to return to the upward trend . In the short term, it is still recommended that the real estate industry chain with steady growth and the subject matter of the annual report forecast exceed expectations.
Cinda Securities said that the tactical rebound of will appear after the Spring Festival . In February, the centralized performance of the annual report and the first quarterly report has not yet come, and the worry about the performance of semiconductor, new energy and other tracks in 2022 will come to an end temporarily. At the same time, from the Spring Festival to march is the time with the highest certainty of residents’ capital activity over the years .
The agency further analyzed that there will be a technical rebound in February, which may be the best stage in the first half of the year. First, in February, the centralized performance of the annual report and the first quarterly report has not yet come. From the progress of annual report disclosure over the years, the time is mostly concentrated in March to April. Investors are worried about the performance growth in 2022, which brings the adjustment of track stocks represented by semiconductors and new energy from December 2021 to January 2022. The adjustment caused by this worry does not need to look at the performance at the initial stage, but if the adjustment continues, it is necessary to determine whether there is a problem with the performance. There is no need to worry in February. So the time window in February is safe. Second, the capital pattern from the Spring Festival to march is often good. Although since the end of last year, many investors have been discussing spring agitation and cross year market, the agitation time with the highest real certainty in history is often only February.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities believes that is firmly optimistic about this year’s spring Market . First, in recent 12 years, the market has risen every year before and after the Spring Festival, without exception. It is often due to the time of important work meetings at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, policy preference, low reference of economic data and less disclosure of profit data.
Second, this year, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee stressed that next year’s economic work should “take the lead in stability and seek progress in stability”. The central bank’s monetary policy is relatively loose. The central bank has lowered the LPR interest rate twice in a continuous month. At the same time, it has reduced the reserve requirement and the open market operating interest rate. With the expectation of marginal easing of monetary policy more consistent and positive changes in the probability of future credit and social finance data, steady growth signal will provide impetus for the opening of the market in the spring of 2022 .
Third, the recent rapid inflow of northward funds has not had much impact on the overall liquidity of a shares. At present, the expectation of interest rate increase has been gradually responded, and the valuation of A shares has also fallen to a lower position . In the future, after the investor sentiment stabilizes and some track risks are gradually released, the spring market driven by steady growth may gradually open.
The agency further pointed out that the macroeconomic downturn and congestion of some track transactions in the first quarter were important factors restricting the upward market, but the abundant market liquidity and the relatively loose money credit cycle supported the market. In terms of industry, the recent risks of new energy related industries have been released; Some industries with poor early performance, such as big finance, have no significant signs of improvement in fundamentals, but their valuation is low and defensive.
From the perspective of balanced allocation suggestions, first, some high prosperity sub industries such as semiconductor, military industry, green power and individual consumer goods can be configured for a long time. Second, electronics, home appliances, building materials, computers and other sectors with good performance during the spring market. Third, large finance, large infrastructure and other sectors with valuation and repair power and both offensive and defensive, with balanced allocation .
Macroscopically, AVIC Securities believes that policy will be an important factor affecting the market this year . The central economic work conference released a clear signal of counter cyclical regulation. At present, the broad currency expectation has been successfully fulfilled, and we have reason to believe that other policies related to steady growth will also be actively implemented. It is expected that the first quarter will be the intensive landing period of all aspects of steady growth policies. A shares may enter the “policy expectation” transaction. The favorable policies are expected to support a round of upward movement of the Shanghai index, but the range is expected to be small. Similar to the “leveraged bull” market under the background of loose liquidity in 2015, it will not reappear. Therefore, you can be more positive, but not too radical.
In terms of operational strategy, Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) said that the main battlefield of funds is transferring to the Shanghai stock market. Mining the “three low” blue chip investment opportunities of low, low and undervalued value will be the place where institutional funds find the few investment “gold mines” in the first half of the bull market. From the characteristics of opening and technical characteristics, the market is near the bottom low point, In order to earn both index and money in the future market, taking the “three lows” as the investment object is both offensive and defensive α Strategy is also available β Investment direction of space. In terms of operation, take the road of “moderation”, pay attention to finance, state-owned enterprise reform concept stocks, information technology, smart cars, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, film and television media and “three low” bottom stocks, and avoid “three high” stocks and delisting risk stocks.
YueKai Securities pointed out that the current market adjustment is coming to an end, and A-Shares are ready to go. It is expected that in the first quarter, under the expectation of steady growth, it will take the lead in opening a wave of market dominated by large cap stocks, and gradually return to the cycle dominated by small cap stocks in the second half of the year . Before the festival, the market pursues certainty, and the performance of blue chip in the market is better than that of small and medium-sized stocks. After the festival, policy expectations rise again, and the market turns to pursue high elasticity.
Configuration ideas: 1) pay attention to the performance of large cap stocks recently, and there is a strong demand for phased reverse switching in large cap stocks. Focus on the main line of steady growth and undervalued value, real estate, building materials, household appliances in the infrastructure and real estate chain, as well as leisure services, food and beverage and other consumer industries that expand domestic demand.
2) pay attention to the performance of medium and small cap throughout the year. This year’s marginal change at the denominator end has supported the trend of small and medium-sized stocks. In the stage of steady growth, we pay attention to the investment direction dominated by expected improvement and relative profit growth, and the energy transformation, high-end manufacturing, digital economy and other directions supported by high-quality transformation and development.
