Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Dongguan Securities: wait for the dawn! It is suggested to pay attention to the layout opportunities of the military industry after substantial adjustment
It is suggested to pay attention to the layout opportunities after substantial adjustment of the industry and wait for the dawn. In the long run, geopolitical events are becoming more and more complicated, and the number of global military exercises is becoming more and more frequent. Only by improving our military strength can we better deal with the increasingly complex world situation; The new variant virus has increased global uncertainties. As a key counter cyclical sector, the military industry sector is less affected by global economic events, and the industry as a whole is improving with high certainty. Optimistic about the high prosperity of the industry under the demand for equipment upgrading during the 14th Five Year Plan period; From the perspective of usage, with the increase of actual training times, the loss of trainer aircraft and missile inventory replenishment are increased, and we are optimistic about the aviation industry chain and the missile industry chain with high consumables; On the other hand, we are optimistic about the development of Beidou industrial chain under the Internet of things and the development of special chips under the new round of digital currency reform. Target suggestions and concerns: Xi'An Triangle Defense Co.Ltd(300775) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , etc. []
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities: the prosperity of the industry is expected to continue to rise, and the valuation system of military central enterprises may reshape
In the medium term, as the second year of the 14th five year plan for equipment procurement, bidding is expected to be intensively implemented in 2022. With the continuous release of industrial capacity and downstream demand, the prosperity of the industry is expected to continue to rise. With the acceleration of state-owned enterprise reform in 2022, the valuation system of military central enterprises may be reshaped, and the valuation improvement is expected. In the long run, the "Centennial goal of building the army" is nearly late, and the "Centennial change" is bound to accelerate the modernization process of our army and usher in the golden age of industry development.
With the gradual stabilization of the military industry index, we give priority to companies with better future performance in the upstream of the industrial chain, including China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Guangdong Shenglu Telecommunication Tech.Co.Ltd(002446) and Nanjing Quanxin Cable Technology Co.Ltd(300447) ; Secondly, from the medium and long-term perspective, recommend targets that may be "wrongly killed", including Avicopter Plc(600038) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) , Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) ; Finally, recommend the beneficial targets of state-owned enterprise reform, including China Marine Information Electronics Company Limited(600764) , Addsino Co.Ltd(000547) . []
AVIC Securities: military industry has become a standard, mandatory and even over matched variety in the market
As the technology of China's military industry matures day by day, the production capacity increases rapidly and the supply system continues to improve, the overall capacity of the military industry will meet and exceed China's demand and military demand at some time. We judge that the flexible military trade market and the larger civil aircraft market will become a new driving force and acceleration source for the sustained and high growth of China's military industry in the coming decades.
① military trade: as the second demand side of the military industry, the popularity of military trade activities is expected to rise in the middle and late period of the 14th five year plan, especially in the fields of aviation, aerospace and ships; ② Civil aircraft: China is expected to become the world's most potential civil aviation market; Focus on areas with large room for localization improvement; Focus on the delivery progress of C919 this year.
For the military industry market in 2022, in order to provide strong support and reduce the fluctuation, advance two and retreat one. Aviation and aerospace are still the basic industries of the military industry. The bottom of the civilian ship industry has recovered, and the pace of asset securitization of groups such as CETC, ordnance, ordnance and China shipbuilding has accelerated. The military industry as a whole has shown a gratifying situation of full flowering and everywhere results, which has never been seen in history.
As the scope and degree of consensus are becoming wider and stronger, the degree of consensus of the current market on the military industry is at a high level, and has been tested by last year's mid-term report and the third quarterly report. Under the strong consensus expectation, military industry has become the standard, mandatory and even over matched varieties in the market.
We believe that with a high probability, the volatility of the military industry will tend to decrease for a long time in the future, and it is difficult to reproduce the callback range of more than 30% in 2021, which also means that the opportunity of cheap valuation is not easy to reappear. If the market style changes temporarily and the short-term irrational decline occurs, it is a better allocation opportunity. From the perspective of medium and long-term annual dimension, we tend to think that the military industry is more likely to be a benign "advance, two retreat and one" with a bottom decline. []
Capital Securities: grasp the main line of aviation equipment investment, military electronics has high independent and controllable growth
Grasp the main line of aviation equipment investment, and the independent and controllable growth of military electronics is high: 1) the contract liabilities of main engine factory + verification of advance payment, and the growth of aviation industry chain will continue to be realized. The performance transmission is effective. From the main engine plant and engine system, to the body system and parts, and then to the upstream raw material sector, the whole industry chain has strong momentum and certainty. The OEM pays attention to Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) ; Body system concerns Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) ; Aviation parts focus on Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) ; Metal materials focus on Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) . 2) The certainty of missile weapons and equipment benefits from practical military training. The independent control of military electronics in the field of high-end equipment brings high growth. We pay attention to Chengdu Tianjian Technology Co.Ltd(002977) , Beijing Relpow Technology Co.Ltd(300593) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Beijing Fjr Optoelectronic Technology Co.Ltd(688272) . []
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : the annual report performance forecast will be released intensively, and the high prosperity of the military industry sector is expected to strengthen again
The valuation of aviation and aerospace sectors with high prosperity is still in a historically low position, which deserves special attention. In the upstream of aviation, Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) issued a fixed increase announcement, raising a total of 2.013 billion yuan, mainly for capacity expansion. In the middle reaches of aviation, Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) released the performance forecast. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is expected to reach 250-260 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 83% - 90%, mainly benefiting from the rapid increase in the demand for aviation equipment.
China's advanced fighter technology has a high maturity. With the accelerated loading of domestic aviation equipment, the industry will be in the stage of continuous delivery of new production capacity and accelerated release of performance in the next two to three years. The performance forecast of the annual report will be released intensively soon. It is expected that the performance of upstream components and raw material targets that characterize the prosperity of the industry will continue to maintain high growth, and the high prosperity of the sector is expected to be strengthened again. The main focus of this round of military investment is the significant improvement of the industry fundamentals. At present, the prosperity of the industry continues to improve, and the sector has increased its adjustment recently, It is suggested to focus on high-quality growth targets that are wrongly killed due to market sentiment. []
Guoyuan Securities Company Limited(000728) : the short-term disturbance does not affect the performance growth of aviation equipment, and the military industry valuation is still relatively low
The short-term disturbance does not affect the performance growth of aviation equipment, and the military industry valuation is still relatively low.
The 14th five year plan will accelerate the boom of the military industry, among which the improvement of the fundamentals of the aviation equipment sub industry is the most determined. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, a number of key Chinese military aircraft, such as the j-20 and its spare parts, were in the early stages of R & D, domestic substitution and small-scale production. Since 2021, these aviation equipment began to shift to the ramp up period of production capacity and large-scale domestic substitution. In the new stage, the whole machine, forgings, subsystems and materials are expected to achieve rapid improvement in performance. At the same time, on the whole, the PE of the military industry is at a historical low point (PE is 70X level, the maximum PE of the national defense and military industry during the 10-year period is 245x, and the average PE is 85x). The short-term disturbance will not change the industry, and the overall trend of the industry fundamentals is upward. []
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : the military industry index is expected to replicate the performance of the wind power index in the second half of 2021 in 2022
National defense has a high growth certainty. In 2022, it will enter the sweet period of "business cycle + asset integration" and "endogenous + extension" two wheel drive, "domestic demand + foreign trade" and "military products + civilian products". The military industry index is expected to replicate the performance of the wind power index in the second half of 2021 in 2022, and the latter ranks first:
(1) under the "century changing situation", the national defense and military industry has a high growth rate. "Preparing for war / 2027 / building a strong national defense commensurate with the second largest economy" is the established direction. Large contract liabilities in 2021 highlight the high boom of the 14th five year plan.
(2) in the next few years, the securitization of national defense and military industrial assets and the reorganization and listing of core military products are expected to set off a new climax. The companies under China shipbuilding group have started the reorganization, paying attention to the reorganization process of China Shipbuilding Group / Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group Co.Ltd(000901) / CETC / AVIC / Aerospace Science and industry / ordnance industry and other groups.
(3) China's main battle tanks / UAVs / trainers / fighters have global competitiveness, and the demand for foreign trade will gradually rise. Domestic large civil aircraft / civil aviation engines and other industrial chains are also gradually growing. Defense and military industry: we are optimistic about the missile / information technology / Aviation Development / military aircraft sub industry, scale effect + refined management, "small core and large cooperation". The performance of national defense mainframe will be flexible in the next five years. With the conclusion of the "three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform", equity incentive is expected to accelerate the release of performance: Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group Corporation Co.Ltd(600967) , China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) . []
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : 2022 is the end of the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform, and the reform of military state-owned enterprises will usher in a development climax
The three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform welcomes the end, and the military state-owned enterprises seize the opportunity: the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform is the specific construction drawing of implementing the "1 + n" policy system and top-level design of state-owned enterprise reform, which is "measurable, assessable, verifiable and important". The reform of state-owned enterprises has formed a "1 + n" policy system under the guidance of the guiding opinions on deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises and supported by 35 supporting documents. 2022 is the closing year of the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform. Superimposing the favorable factors of national defense modernization, the reform of military state-owned enterprises will usher in a climax of development. []
