Just now, the new energy track has got the most clear setting.
After the sharp rise, the new energy track ushered in another piece of heavy news. After the closing on January 24, the State Council officially issued the comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction in the 14th five year plan, which made it clear that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales of new vehicles; By 2025, the proportion of non fossil energy in total energy consumption will reach about 20%.
On the same day, the lithium battery and photovoltaic tracks that had been silent for a long time made a comeback, and lithium battery stocks set off a wave of limit trading. Some institutional people said that after a wave of correction, the valuation risk of some track stocks was released. According to the latest setting of the state Council, the probability of new energy track will remain high for some time in the future, and the certainty of future performance growth is still great.
On January 24, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) with a market value of more than 190 billion disclosed its performance forecast. In 2021, the annual net profit reached 4.8 billion yuan to 5.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 368% - 437%. In the fourth quarter, it increased by 120% - 187% month on month, greatly exceeding the expectations of the organization.
State Council heavy tone
On January 24, the State Council officially issued the comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction in the 14th five year plan, which made it clear that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales of new vehicles, and the proportion of railway and waterway freight traffic will further increase.
At the same time, the plan points out that by 2025, non fossil energy will account for about 20% of the total energy consumption. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the coal consumption in Beijing Tianjin Hebei and its surrounding areas and the Yangtze River Delta decreased by about 10% and 5% respectively, and the coal consumption in Fenwei plain achieved negative growth.
first, let's look at new energy vehicles. How large will it be to reach 20% of the total sales of new vehicles by 2025?
According to the prediction of China Automobile Association, the total sales volume of China's automobile market may reach about 27.5 million in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 5%. Assuming an average annual growth rate of 5% from 2023 to 2025, the total sales volume of China's automobile market will reach about 31.83 million by 2025. Based on the calculation of 20%, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) new cars will reach 6.37 million by 2025, with a potential growth rate of 81% compared with the sales volume of 3.52 million in 2021.
Let's look at the non fossil energy dominated by wind energy, photovoltaic and nuclear energy. The clear goal given in the plan is that the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will reach about 20% by 2025. According to public data, the proportion of non fossil energy in China's primary energy consumption will be about 15.4% in 2020, which means that the average annual proportion of non fossil energy will increase by about 1 percentage point in five years, and China's energy transformation will be further strengthened.
Previously, the International Energy Agency predicted that by 2025, China will account for 40% of the growth of all renewable energy capacity, of which photovoltaic capacity will account for 80%. By 2025, China's annual installed capacity of photovoltaic will increase or reach 100gw.
In addition, the plan also provides clear guidelines for traditional steel and other high energy consuming industries. By 2025, the transformation of 530 million tons of steel production capacity with ultra-low emission will be completed, and the ultra-low emission of coal-fired boilers in key areas of air pollution prevention and control will be fully realized; By 2025, through the implementation of energy conservation and carbon reduction actions, the proportion of production capacity and data centers in key industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia and calcium carbide will reach the benchmark level of energy efficiency will exceed 30%.
At the same time, the plan has deployed ten key projects, including green upgrading projects in key industries, energy conservation and environmental protection improvement projects in parks, green energy conservation transformation projects in cities and towns, energy conservation and emission reduction projects in transportation and logistics, energy conservation and emission reduction projects in agriculture and rural areas, energy efficiency improvement projects in public institutions, pollutant emission reduction projects in key areas, clean and efficient utilization of coal The comprehensive treatment project of volatile organic compounds and the improvement project of environmental infrastructure level have defined the specific objectives and tasks.
The clear goal given in the plan is that by 2025, the energy consumption per unit of China's GDP will be 13.5% lower than that in 2020, the total energy consumption will be reasonably controlled, and the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia nitrogen, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds will be 8%, 8%, 10% and 10% lower than that in 2020 respectively. Energy conservation and emission reduction policies and mechanisms have been improved, the energy efficiency of key industries and the emission control level of major pollutants have basically reached the international advanced level, and remarkable achievements have been made in the green transformation of economic and social development.
trillion track comeback?
After the opening on January 24, the lithium battery and photovoltaic track, which had been silent for a long time, made a comeback and ushered in a big outbreak. As of the closing, the lithium mine index rose by more than 6%, the salt lake lithium extraction sector rose by more than 5%, and the sectors such as sodium ion battery, lithium battery and energy storage concept led the rise. Among them, lithium battery stocks set off a wave of limit trading, Guizhou Redstar Developing Co.Ltd(600367) , Zangger mining, Shanghai Tianyong Engineering Co.Ltd(603895) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co.Ltd(002805) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , and Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Jiangsu Jiuwu Hi-Tech Co.Ltd(300631) rose by more than 9%.
The photovoltaic sector also performed well, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) , Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) and other closed sectors, Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) rose by more than 10%. According to the statistics of Chinese reporters of securities companies, as of the closing on January 24, the total market values of lithium battery and photovoltaic sectors were 5033.8 billion yuan and 2827.1 billion yuan respectively, and the total market values of the two sectors increased by more than 196.2 billion yuan in a single day.
In fact, since the beginning of the year, the new energy tracks represented by lithium batteries have stalled one after another. By the end of the year, the lithium battery sector index had fallen by nearly 8.4%. Among the individual stocks, Yanan Bicon Pharmaceutical Listed Company(002411) has fallen by nearly 34.7% this year, Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) , Miracle Automation Engineering Co.Ltd(002009) , Sinomach General Machinery Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600444) , Veken Technology Co.Ltd(600152) , Shenzhen Center Power Tech.Co.Ltd(002733) , Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Zangger mining and other more than ten stocks have fallen by more than 20%.
In fact, on the news side of the resumption of trading since 2022, the lithium, wind power, photovoltaic and other circuits of A-Shares have not suffered obvious bad news, and the rising trend of lithium prices is still continuing. Some industry analysts said that the stock price correction since the new year is more a valuation repair for the excessive rise of stock prices in the early stage, and some institutions have carried out position adjustment and stock exchange after the beginning of the year.
Some institutions said that after a wave of correction, the valuation risk of some stocks has been released to a certain extent. According to the latest setting of the State Council, the probability of new energy track will remain high for some time in the future, and the certainty of future performance growth is still high.
the performance of 100 billion lithium battery giant exploded
After hours on January 24, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) announced that the annual net profit in 2021 is expected to reach 4.8 billion yuan to 5.5 billion yuan, with a median of 5.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 368% - 437%, and the growth rate of net profit after deduction is as high as 621% - 795%.
The net profit scale of 4.8 billion yuan to 5.5 billion yuan is much higher than the expectation of all institutions. According to the consistent profit expectation results of wind, the median net profit expectation of 20 institutions for Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) is 3.39 billion yuan, of which Haitong international, which is the most optimistic, gives a profit estimate of 4.326 billion yuan, which is also less than the lower limit of Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) performance forecast.
Quarterly, the net profit of Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) in the fourth quarter of 2021 was about 2.33 billion-3.06 billion yuan, more than the sum of the first to third quarters, with a month on month increase of 120% - 187%. And the profit scale increased quarter by quarter. The company's net profits from Q1 to Q3 were 476 million yuan, 941 million yuan and 1056 million yuan respectively, which also exceeded the expectations of the organization.
As for the reasons for the high growth of net profit, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) said in the announcement that during the reporting period, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles and energy storage industry, the demand for lithium salt from downstream customers increased strongly, the production and sales volume of lithium salt products of the company increased and the product price continued to rise, and the new projects in the lithium battery sector of the company were put into operation and the production capacity was gradually released, Therefore, the company's operating net profit increased year-on-year.
It is worth mentioning that the share price of Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) broke out first on January 24. In the afternoon, the daily limit was directly sealed, up 10% throughout the day, and the total market value rebounded to 193.9 billion yuan.
Before that, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) share price experienced a long correction, with the largest decline of more than 46.8%, close to halving.
According to the performance forecast of Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , the median earnings per share for the whole year of 2021 can reach 3.68 yuan. According to the latest closing price, the latest valuation of Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) has dropped to 36.6 times, and the risk of overestimation has been significantly alleviated.
More importantly, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) this forecast of better than expected performance may allow the market to re price the whole track. Another giant in the lithium sector, Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , has not yet disclosed the performance forecast, but its raw material self-sufficiency rate is higher, the cost is lower, and the main product is lithium carbonate with higher price. The performance growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2021 may be more bright.
Looking back, in the first quarter of this year, it is more certain that the lithium mine and lithium salt industry will continue to maintain performance growth. As of January 24, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate has risen to 355000 yuan / ton, and the average price in that quarter has increased by 100000 yuan to 310000 yuan / ton compared with the fourth quarter of last year. In this context, in the first quarter of this year, the whole industry is still expected to continue the month on month growth trend of net profit.
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