Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MFL and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted. in the short term, geopolitical events have affected the sharp fluctuations of European and American stock markets, and the impact of A-share sentiment has ushered in a sharp decline. However, at present, the fundamentals are stable, the expectation of loose liquidity is increasing, and the overall logic is still good. Panic is a good time to build and increase positions.
U.S. stocks ushered in a huge earthquake overnight, while yesterday’s sharp decline in European stock markets, especially the sharp decline in Russian stock markets, cast a shadow on the global market. Throughout the day, A-Shares have been greatly affected by the mood. After the shock in the morning and continuous diving in the afternoon, the gem fell below the integer mark of 3000 points, and Shanghai and Shenzhen also ushered in a new low since the second round of adjustment. On the disk, the sector index fell across the board, defense industry, banks and household appliances fell slightly, while the media fell sharply, coal, computers and communications fell sharply, and more than 4000 shares in the two cities fell, ushering in a real general decline.
Yesterday, affected by the tension in Ukraine, the European capital market fell across the board, and US stocks were also shocked. U.S. stocks fluctuated violently on Monday, the three major indexes fell sharply in the session, and turned up strongly in the late session; Russia RTS index closed down 8.11%; European stocks fell sharply across the board, with French and German stocks falling more than 3%; US oil fell more than 2%.
A shares have always been “falling but not rising”. At the time of the huge earthquake of U.S. stocks and the sharp decline in Europe, the opening weakness of A-Shares is relatively normal, but the sharp decline in the afternoon is unexpected. Combined with the sharp outflow of foreign capital, the short-term weakness is still worrying; However, in addition to the impact of the news, the performance mine is also the main influencing factor of the market on that day. For example, Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) with a year-on-year decline in performance plunged 7.56% at the opening today, and the limit was soon closed thereafter. The Qitian Technology Group Co.Ltd(300061) day before the performance forecast loss, it fell sharply. Entering the intensive disclosure period of annual report performance forecast, the performance of some companies is mined, which also puts pressure on the market.
In addition, we also saw a lot of stocks that fell sharply and fell by the limit today. For example, Thalys Medical Technology Group Corporation(603716) , Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) , Beijing Dynamic Power Co.Ltd(600405) , Zhejiang Jianfeng Group Co.Ltd(600668) , Guangxi Hechi Chemical Co.Ltd(000953) and many other stocks have continuously fallen by the limit. Most of these stocks have been wildly speculated in the early stage. Today, they are also concentrated, making the market “worse”.
However, in the face of the sharp decline and continuous adjustment on that day, we are not pessimistic about the market. More importantly, under the strong expectation of stable fundamentals and abundant liquidity, the logic of the overall improvement of the market has not changed. We are still optimistic about the spring market. In the process of A-share decline caused by panic, it is a better time to build and increase positions.
On the whole, the economic stage bottomed out, and monetary policy also ushered in loose signals. Under the support and boost of the market, the logic of the overall improvement has not changed. The stock market is a barometer of money. The monetary easing policy has been started, and the signal is also obvious. Therefore, there is no need to worry about liquidity in at least the first quarter, which will also support and boost the spring market to a certain extent. Although the adjustment since the beginning of the year has slightly exceeded expectations, it should not be too pessimistic after short-term continuous adjustment under the positive trend in the medium term.
