Today (January 25), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. The three major A-share indexes opened low in the morning and further accelerated the signs of adjustment in the afternoon. Finally, the three indexes all broke the recent low and closed at the lowest point of the day, showing a panoramic view of the weak pattern.
In this regard, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that in addition to being still affected by the epidemic in China, the main reason for the sharp decline of A-Shares today may come from the fermentation of geopolitical crisis. The surge of external panic led to the surge of short power in the A-share market. Recently, the relationship between Russia and Ukraine has intensified and deteriorated, and the atmosphere of tension has become increasingly intense. Under the background that the Federal Reserve is about to raise interest rates, it has further pushed up the uncertainty and risks in the global financial market, which has led to a significant shock in the global stock market.
At the same time, Cinda securities mentioned that the tactical rebound will occur after the Spring Festival. In February, the centralized performance of the annual report and the first quarterly report has not yet come, and the worry about the performance of semiconductor, new energy and other tracks in 2022 will come to an end temporarily. At the same time, the period from the Spring Festival to march is the highest time for residents’ capital activity over the years.
sector:
I. precious metals
COFCO futures mentioned that at present, the mainstream market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates 50pb in March and four times in the whole year. The US dollar index rose last week, but failed to fully recover the decline of the previous week. The US bond yield was under pressure of 1.8 and fell slightly. Gold and silver were not affected by both. They rose for the second consecutive week, boosted by inflation, the geopolitical crisis between Russia and Ukraine and the general rise of commodities.
GF futures pointed out that under the influence of the epidemic, the supply chain in the United States continues to be limited, the recovery of the employment market is slow, the international oil price remains high due to the limited increase in production, and the Federal Reserve vigorously curbs high inflation. It is not ruled out that the interest rate will be increased by 50 basis points in March, and the scale contraction in the middle of the year may also rise further, pushing up the US bond interest rate.
Although the market tends to overestimate at the initial stage of the expected interest rate hike, the consumption of precious metals will be supported by the demand for important festivals in China and India at the beginning of the year. It is difficult to predict the impact of the geographical situation in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. It is estimated that the risk of short-term fluctuations in gold and silver prices will rise in resonance with the expectation of further tightening monetary policy by the global central bank, If there is no further hawkish signal at the January meeting of the Federal Reserve, gold may rebound further in the short term.
In addition, East Asia Qianhai Securities said that although facing the expectation of raising interest rates, the rising power of gold prices is still. First, the inflation level in the United States is at the highest level in 40 years, while the prices of crude oil and other commodities are still rising, so it is difficult to effectively solve inflation in the short term; Secondly, the US economy as a whole is improving, but it is still fragile. With the gradual tightening of US monetary policy, it is expected that the progress of economic recovery will slow down, and even downward risks will appear; Third, Comex gold futures has been adjusted for nearly 18 months, and the bad risk has been released to a certain extent. After the release of US employment data in December 2021, gold rebounded rapidly after only a short decline, indicating that the market has begun to digest the negative impact of interest rate hikes.
II. Airport
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that the State Council issued the tourism development plan of the 14th five year plan. The plan refers to improving the tourism opening system, promoting inbound tourism in an orderly distribution, gradually developing outbound tourism and continuously promoting tourism exchanges and cooperation on the premise that the global epidemic is effectively controlled. The 14th five year plan for tourism proposes to choose the opportunity to promote inbound and outbound tourism, which echoes with the focus on restoring the international market from 2023 to 2025 in the 14th five year plan for civil aviation. At the level of industrial policy, preparations have been made for liberalization. Of course, the decision-making level needs to weigh the pros and cons of liberalization. Once liberalization is selected, we believe that the loosening of China’s epidemic prevention policy and the comprehensive and effective opening of the country are carried out simultaneously with a high probability.
Since the outbreak, the supply expansion of civil aviation has been suppressed at a very low level. In 2022, when the short-term epidemic prevention policy is still in a high-pressure situation, the prosperity of civil aviation may still fluctuate. The introduction of aircraft fleet continues to be cautious and is expected to remain low for three consecutive years, while the theoretical demand continues to rise with economic growth. We believe that the gap between supply and demand of civil aviation theory is large. When China’s epidemic prevention policy is loosened and the door is restarted, the internal and external demand of civil aviation will recover, the supply structural pressure will be relieved, and the supply and demand will be reversed in an all-round way. In addition, the triple resonance of high seating rate, continuous fare reform and the release of backlog demand is expected to stimulate the substantial rise of ticket prices and the upward elasticity of civil aviation.
Expectations come first before the boom. We believe that after the emergence of vaccines and specific drugs at the same time, it is only a matter of time for mankind to overcome the epidemic. When a strong boom is expected, the share price of aviation stocks is likely to remain active. We do not deny that the short-term prosperity of civil aviation may still be disturbed by the epidemic, but the prosperity of the industry is highly expected after the epidemic subsides completely. We believe that the boom brought by the reversal of supply and demand is industrial, and large and small airlines will fully benefit. From the perspective of valuation, Pb valuation of airlines is near the historical center, and there is still room for improvement. It is recommended to Air China Limited(601111) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) .
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