On January 25, the three major A-share indexes fell by more than 2%, and the Shanghai index fell 3500 points, hitting a new low in five months. The gem index continued to hit a new low since May last year, with less than 300 stocks rising in the two cities.
In the face of the dismal performance of the stock market, "stock market" and "fund" are both on the hot search list again. Investors joked that the market is already "thousands of people and thousands of noodles", that is, every investor is turning off the lights and eating noodles. The fund manager who previously said that "mother-in-law has been forced to invest for a long time" is also commented by netizens; "Even father-in-law wants to invest for a long time."
It is said that Xiaonian is the prelude to the Spring Festival. In the face of the full screen "green light" market, should investors hold money or base in the last trading week before the festival?
Market capital flows may give the answer. Data show that northbound funds sold a net 3.574 billion yuan throughout the day, ending net purchases for seven consecutive days. The southbound capital bought a net HK $2.334 billion today, a net purchase for 15 consecutive days, with a cumulative net purchase of 40.754 billion yuan.
investors jokingly call the market "thousands of people and thousands of faces"
Today, the market again welcomed the adjustment of the market, and the decline of the stock market accelerated in the late trading. As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 2.58%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 2.83% and the gem index fell 2.67%.
From the perspective of fund market performance, the latest net value of the fund has not been disclosed. According to the fund valuation data of Tiantian fund, only two of the 1952 equity funds in the whole market turned red, and the fund with the largest decline in valuation fell by nearly 6%.
As the stock market closed down, the "stock market" and "fund" boarded the microblog hot search again, and the jokes about the stock market also flowed out frequently.
For example, some netizens describe the current market as "thousands of people and thousands of noodles", that is, every investor eats noodles. Or "gazing at each other", which describes the dilemma of each shareholder holding a bowl of noodles and looking at each other for comfort.
There are microblogging V joked that he has realized "wealth freedom" through fund investment, that is, wealth no longer belongs to him.
In addition, the finance and economics V took out the document "market decline soothing script" inside the channel and began to carry out self psychological massage. Specifically, for customers with low positions, remind them that a recent sharp decline is a better opportunity to add positions, and introduce adding positions in batches; For customers with heavy positions, it is recommended to face up to the short-term adjustment of the market, and compared with previous data, after a large pullback in the past, the probability will usher in a wave of rebound in the future.
Take the common stock fund index as an example: from April to June 2019, it retreated by - 12.39%, and then rebounded by 21.28% in the next five months; It retreated by - 15.73% in February and March 2020 and rebounded by 48.95% in the following five months: it retreated by - 7.65% in September 2020 and rebounded by 31.53% in the following five months.
base or currency?
For today's stock market correction, many institutions believe that external risks are an important main reason, among which the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine is also considered to be one of the key factors.
"Since the beginning of the year, affected by the expectation of overseas interest rate hikes, the yield of US bonds has continued to rise. At the same time, coupled with the fermentation of geopolitical risks, the overseas market has fluctuated sharply. Among the three major US stock indexes, Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S & P 500 have fallen by 5.4%, 11.4% and 7.5% respectively since the beginning of the year." Huaxia Fund said that under the background of the accelerated trend of global capital flows, there is a certain risk of resonance weakening between A-Shares and US stocks. Affected by this, market sentiment has weakened recently, and risk appetite has shrunk significantly. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 5.68% since the beginning of the year. Stocks with high valuations have decreased significantly, and the related fields of steady growth have fallen against each other.
In addition, Huaxia Fund also said that from a global perspective, investors' risk aversion has increased significantly, and the regional crisis situation is affecting the prices of major assets including Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , industrial metals, stocks and bonds in the short term, which also has a negative impact on the risk appetite of the A-share market.
Warburg fund also believes that the VIX risk index soared to a new high in recent two years as the market generally expects the contraction rhythm of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy to accelerate, coupled with the negative impact of this round of epidemic. In addition, the recent crisis in Ukraine has escalated, reducing market risk appetite and further amplifying market volatility in the emotional fragile period of US stocks.
In the face of the fluctuating market and the upcoming Spring Festival, it has become a common choice for investors to choose whether to hold the base, hold shares for the new year or fall into the bag. In terms of capital flow, the market has different answers to this question in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets.
Data show that northbound funds sold a net 3.574 billion yuan throughout the day, ending net purchases for seven consecutive days. The southbound capital bought a net HK $2.334 billion today, a net purchase for 15 consecutive days, with a cumulative net purchase of 40.754 billion yuan.
From the perspective of various institutions, the market still has the opportunity to rebound after the restoration of risk appetite after the festival, especially the appearance of the effect of stable growth policy, which has become the consensus of various institutions.
"In terms of investment opportunities, we believe that under the steady growth policy, China's economy is expected to see improvement in the first quarter, and the power investment and new energy chain, real estate infrastructure industry chain and digital economy related to steady growth will still be relatively prosperous." Huaxia Fund believes that after substantial adjustment, the cost performance of the above sector allocation has been significantly improved, and the future market can be more optimistic.
Jin Zicai, assistant general manager of CAITONG fund and director of fund investment department, believes that due to the comprehensive stable growth policy, the decline of commodity prices, the stabilization of domestic demand and other factors, from the demand side, the industries with greater probability than expected will be in the service industry and compulsory consumption. "If the industry still has price elasticity or roe elasticity, it will be our main direction."
Huabao Fund said that although the market continued to weaken in the process of fluctuation, the adjustment range and duration of this round of index are relatively limited and the sustainability will not be particularly strong.
"In terms of allocation, in the policy window period of the local and national sessions, it is suggested to continue to grasp the main line of steady growth + undervalued market. First, the real estate chain benefiting from the loose margin of real estate policy, second, new and old infrastructure directly related to steady growth, and third, banks and securities companies with high-quality fundamental support + great potential for valuation and repair."
In addition, Huabao fund also said that after the current round of negative market sentiment is gradually digested and the "two sessions" window period, it is suggested to gradually increase the consumption sector. New energy, consumer electronics and other technology sectors are expected to remain relatively high in 2022, and the current adjustment is expected to become a better allocation opportunity in the year.
Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund believes that near the Spring Festival, emotional factors may still inhibit market performance, but in the future, with the continuous introduction of "stable growth" policy details, the improvement of forward-looking indicators and the gradual stabilization of China's growth, market sentiment is also expected to be repaired. It is expected that the "steady growth" style may last until about the end of the first quarter.
Dear investors, are you "holding the foundation for the holiday" or are you more willing to "drop your bag for safety"?
