On January 25, the A-share market fell sharply, and the Shanghai stock index hit the largest one-day decline in the last 18 months. Topics such as stock market, funds and A-Shares also rushed into microblog hot search today.
What is the background behind the sudden sharp adjustment of a shares?
A shares fell sharply, and the Shanghai stock index recorded the largest decline in 18 months
On the 25th, A-Shares were running low all day, and the major indexes suddenly expanded their decline in the afternoon.
As of the close, the Shanghai stock index fell more than 90 points, down 2.58%. The Shenzhen component index plunged nearly 400 points, down 2.83%. The gem index fell below the integer mark of 3000 points, down 2.67%.
While the market fell sharply, the turnover of the two markets increased, an increase of more than 70 billion yuan over the previous trading day.
According to statistics, if calculated according to the one-day decline, the Shanghai index today hit the largest one-day decline in the last 18 months since July 24, 2020.
In addition to the sharp decline of the index, the sharp decline of the market is also reflected in the exhaustion of all major sectors.
More than half of the Shenwan industry sectors fell by more than 3%, of which the media sector plunged by more than 6%. Comprehensive, coal, computer, communication and other sectors led the decline.
The concept sectors also fell across the board, and many concept sectors such as cloud games, digital currency and meta universe plunged by more than 5%.
In terms of individual stocks, more than 4000 stocks in the two cities fell, and the number of limit stocks increased significantly. The number of limit stocks in the two cities reached 92 today, almost doubling compared with the previous trading day.
While the market adjusted significantly, northbound funds also ended the net buying trend for seven consecutive trading days, with a net sales of 3.574 billion yuan throughout the day.
What are the reasons for the sharp adjustment of sudden subsidence?
There may be various factors influencing why the market suddenly makes a sharp adjustment at this time.
An important factor is that the peripheral stock market has fallen into violent turmoil recently.
Just on Monday, local time, European stock markets fell sharply. The Russian stock market once fell by more than 10%, while the U.S. stock market also fluctuated violently that day. The Dow index once plunged more than 1000 points.
After entering the Gregorian calendar in 2022, the global stock markets have successively entered the adjustment mode, and the fluctuation range has increased significantly.
According to statistics, from the beginning of 2022 to the present, the NASDAQ index of US stocks has fallen by more than 10%. Besides the A-share market, the recent decline of other stock markets in the Asia Pacific has also increased. Only Hong Kong stocks with weak performance in 2021 are relatively strong.
Another background for the A-share market to fall into continuous adjustment and even expand the decline is that recently, the performance forecast of 2021 annual report of A-share listed companies has entered an intensive disclosure period, and the market has some concerns about some companies with possible performance explosion.
Just today, a number of stocks, including Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) , Qitian Technology Group Co.Ltd(300061) , Tangel Culture Co.Ltd(300148) , fell sharply. The 2021 performance forecast just released by these companies shows that their expected performance will decline sharply or make a significant loss in advance.
For example, Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 will be 80-110 million yuan, a significant decrease of 80.95% - 73.81% over the same period of the previous year.
According to the performance forecast for 2021 released by Qitian Technology Group Co.Ltd(300061) , the company expects the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 to be a loss of 340 million yuan – 490 million yuan.
The 2021 annual performance forecast released by Tangel Culture Co.Ltd(300148) shows that the company expects the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 to be a loss of 600 million yuan to 850 million yuan. Tangel Culture Co.Ltd(300148) said that during the reporting period, the main reason for the loss of the company was that the revenue and profit of some of the company's old game products decreased year-on-year, and the R & D and promotion of most new game products failed to start as planned, resulting in the performance of game subsidiaries not meeting expectations and obvious signs of impairment during the reporting period. According to the company, it is expected to recognize asset impairment losses and credit impairment losses totaling 550 million-800 million yuan in 2021.
what do you think of the sharp decline of a shares?
For the market changes on January 25, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) 's strategic view is that overseas risk events and weak peripheral markets inhibit risk appetite, resulting in the sharp decline of a shares.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that the general sharp decline of A-Shares today is mainly restrained by the risk appetite of peripheral risk events, which is reflected in the following aspects: ① the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is coming, and the market is worried about the accelerated tightening of monetary policy. Since the interest rate increase and table contraction were mentioned in the interest rate discussion minutes at the beginning of the year, the market's expectation of monetary tightening of the Federal Reserve was further advanced, and the US bond yield rose rapidly in stages. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will more fully express and guide the interest rate hike at the interest rate meeting on Thursday. The dot matrix predicts that the probability of starting the interest rate hike on March 17 is close to 90%, and the number of interest rate hikes in the year will reach 4; ② Overseas stock markets fluctuated sharply or generally fell sharply.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that the continuous decline of A-Shares since the beginning of the year is mainly due to two factors: one is the expected gap in the market in the implementation of steady growth measures in the first half of the month; the other is the weakening trend of US stocks and the inhibition of global risk appetite caused by the continuous decline under the concern of global currency shift. At present, the concern of the first factor has been alleviated with the unexpected interest rate cut of the whole chain of omo-mlf-lpr-slf and the statement of intensive and stable growth of the decision-making level in the middle of the month, while the second factor is gradually coming to an end with the accelerated risk release of US stocks in the near future.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) it is expected that with the end of the adjustment of US stocks and the elimination of the impact of external risk appetite, A-Shares are still expected to usher in a restless rebound in spring with the support of stable growth policy.
According to the strategic view of Bohai Securities, the impact of this round of peripheral market turmoil on A-Shares is more emotional and will not interfere with the fundamental expectations of a shares. Therefore, judging its impact is more temporary, and investors need not worry too much about it. In the next two days, the Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting. It is expected that whether the interest rate is increased in advance or not, the market has expected the tightening of overseas liquidity. The convening of this meeting will make the market's expectation of the path of interest rate increase more clear, and the meeting may become an important time point for the market to land its boots. Considering that A-Shares have fallen back to the bottom area and the cost performance of A-Shares has been significantly improved, it is suggested that investors consider increasing the allocation against the trend in time.
