Compared with performance growth, the market is more concerned about exceeding expectations.
Recently, with the continuous adjustment of the new energy vehicle sector, Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) share price has ushered in a sustained rebound. The company released a better than expected performance forecast for 2021 on January 10, which has become the key to the strength of share price. From January 10 to January 21, Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) increased by 18.64%.
Not only Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , with the performance forecast entering the intensive disclosure period, listed companies with better than expected performance have been warmly sought after and become a bright color in the market.
According to the statistics of China Securities Journal and China Securities Taurus reporter, as of January 23, among the 824 listed companies that have released the performance forecast for 2021, 213 listed companies have exceeded the market expectation.
Among them, high-profile industries such as new energy vehicles, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, coal and electronics have become the headquarters of listed companies whose performance forecasts exceed expectations. After achieving better than expected performance, many listed companies are expected to maintain the momentum of constant strength of the strong.
exceeded expectations and was popular in the market
Data show that as of January 23, 824 listed companies have issued performance forecasts for 2021. Among them, the performance of 489 companies has comparable figures with market consensus expectations. Calculated by the median of performance forecast, there are as many as 213 companies that exceed market consensus expectations.
Taking Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) as an example, the performance forecast released by the company on January 17 shows that it is expected to achieve revenue of 4.74 billion yuan to 4.79 billion yuan in 2021, with a central value of 4.765 billion yuan, exceeding 1.04% compared with the consensus market expectation of 4.716 billion yuan; The forecast range of net profit attributable to the parent company was 780 million yuan – 840 million yuan, and the central performance was 810 million yuan, 7.7% higher than the consensus expectation of the market.
The performance forecast of many listed companies exceeded market expectations, which was due to the outstanding performance in the fourth quarter. Taking Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) as an example, the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to reach 2-2.2 billion yuan in 2021, exceeding the consensus expectation of 1.921 billion yuan. Among them, in the fourth quarter, a single quarter contributed a net profit of 1.05-1.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 175% – 227%, showing a strong profit elasticity.
It is worth noting that there is no inevitable relationship between performance exceeding market expectations and performance growth. Although many listed companies have made losses in advance, they still exceed market expectations. Take Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) as an example, although the company expects a loss of 381 million yuan to 465 million yuan in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter was 25 million yuan to 109 million yuan, which improved significantly and exceeded market expectations.
For listed companies that hand over performance forecasts that exceed expectations, most of the securities companies have correspondingly improved their profit forecasts and are further optimistic about the company’s future performance. Taking Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) as an example, after the company disclosed the better than expected performance forecast for 2021, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) raised the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be 524 million yuan, 874 million yuan and 1067 million yuan, corresponding to EPS of 97 yuan, 161 yuan and 197 yuan.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) statistics show that the greater the growth rate of the overall annual report performance forecast exceeds the market expectation, the more prominent the market performance is during the disclosure period of the annual report performance forecast. Since 2016, the coincidence rate of the top 10 industries with “higher than expected” range and the top 10 industries with market performance has increased significantly. Especially in 2019 and 2020, the coincidence rate reached 60% and 50% respectively.
Source: China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377)
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) by constructing the super expected selected stock portfolio from the two dimensions of fundamentals and technology, it is found that the full warehouse annualized return of the super expected selected stock portfolio has reached 43.55% since 2010, and the annualized excess of the CSI 500 index has reached 39.18 percentage points. After considering the impact of positions and transaction costs, the annualized return of the portfolio reached 37.55%, which was 26.48 percentage points higher than that of the ordinary stock fund index.
More than expected stocks have also been warmly sought after by investors in the secondary market. Taking Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) as an example, the performance forecast disclosed by the company on January 17 shows that the revenue in 2021 is expected to be about 7.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 655 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52%, much higher than the market expectation. On January 18, the company’s share price rose in response to the limit.
build a high-profile industry
Statistics show that high-profile industries such as new energy vehicles, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, coal and electronics have become the headquarters of listed companies with better than expected performance.
Take new energy vehicles as an example. According to the data released by China Automobile Association, in 2021, the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market ushered in a major outbreak, with production and sales of 3.545 million and 3.521 million vehicles respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, and the market share reached 13.4%, 8 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. This production and sales data significantly exceeded the market expectation of 2 million vehicles in early 2021.
In this context, the new energy vehicle industry chain has ushered in resonance, and the performance of relevant listed companies has also exceeded market expectations. For example, in 2021, lithium hexafluorophosphate was in short supply and both volume and price rose. By the end of the year, the price in China had reached 565000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 413.6%. Driven by this, lithium hexafluorophosphate leader Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) is expected to realize a net profit of 1.23 billion yuan to 1.33 billion yuan in 2021, which is much higher than the market expectation.
Then take the coal industry as an example. In 2021, the prosperity of the coal industry continued to improve, and the coal market price continued to rise. According to the data, the average price of Datong q6000 thermal coal in 2021 was 876 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 98%; The average price in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 1171 yuan / ton, up 21% month on month.
Affected by this, Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) and other coal listed companies exceeded market expectations. The performance forecast released by Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) shows that the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.5-5 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 444% – 505%; The non net profit deducted was 4.58 billion yuan to 5.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 437% – 496%, exceeding market expectations.
Meanwhile, although the prosperity of many industries fluctuated in 2021, leading companies still achieved better than expected performance by actively responding to market changes. For example, in 2021, the overall prosperity of the semiconductor display industry increased significantly compared with that in 2020. However, the industry demand weakened in the second half of the year, and there was an obvious structural correction in TV panel prices.
In this context, BOE actively complied with market changes in LCD panel products. Facing the structural adjustment of product prices in the industry, BOE actively adjusted its product portfolio based on the advantages of products, customer structure and technology. The proportion of TV panel capacity with large price decline decreased, and the proportion of it panel capacity with stable price continued to rise. Finally, the performance forecast in 2021 exceeded the market expectation.
