Investment advice
Spring Festival is the traditional peak selling season for gold and jewelry. It is suggested to pay attention to the target of growth high-quality brands with undervalued value, Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) / Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) ; As the Winter Olympics is approaching, it is suggested to pay attention to North China gold jewelry leader Beijing Caishikou Department Store Co.Ltd(605599) , which has recently become a franchise retailer of Winter Olympics Souvenirs.
This week’s view
According to the National Bureau of statistics, China’s retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 1.7% in December, 2.8pct slower than that in November, and the compound growth rate was 4.1% compared with December 19. From January to December, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 12.8% at the same time, with a compound increase of 5.7% compared with the same period in 19 years.
In December, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry reached 28.94 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.2% over the same period. The growth rate slowed down by 5.9 PCT compared with November, a compound increase of 5.5% compared with the same period in 19 years; 21. In the whole year, the total retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry commodities of units above the quota reached 304.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, ranking the first in all commodity categories. The prosperity increased significantly, with a compound increase of 16.7% compared with 2019. Compared with other optional / mandatory consumer goods, from the two-year cumulative compound growth rate, the prosperity of gold, silver and jewelry industry is in the middle and upper reaches, and the growth rate is second only to cosmetics, sports leisure and cultural office.
Market Review
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.86%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.11%, the diamond and jewelry sector fell 2.35%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by 3.46pct. In terms of sector comparison, diamond jewelry is located in the downstream of the industry.
In terms of individual stocks, Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) led the increase, and North Industries Group Red Arrow Co.Ltd(000519) , Mclon Jewellery Co.Ltd(300945) led the decline.
Industry dynamics
Industry news: 1) China: the total retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry increased by nearly 30% year-on-year in 2021; The 2022 Hurun China jewelry brand list was released, with 70 jewelry brands and 18 Chinese jewelry B2B enterprises on the list; The same store sales of Liufu 4q21 increased by 45%. 2) Abroad: Alrosa announced Q4 and its annual results, with total annual sales of US $4.17 billion (+ 49%), sales of Q4 gem grade rough diamonds of 6.65 million carats and annual sales of 30.37 million carats; India’s diamond trade volume soared in the past 21 years. GJEPC called for reducing the import tariff of finished diamonds and allowing the trading of rough diamonds in SNZ in Mumbai; De Beers rough diamond raised the price again; Bluerock plans to mine 40000-43000 carats of rough drills (+ 70% – 83%) in 22 years; Richemont group performed well in the jewelry sector in the third fiscal quarter. The total sales of the jewelry sector represented by Cartier / Vanke Yabao / buccirati brands were 3.34 billion euros, up 41% year-on-year.
Key announcement: North Industries Group Red Arrow Co.Ltd(000519) Li Yushun / MA Jinhai / Xin Jingping / Qi jiumin resigned due to the expiration of his term of office. Wei Jun / Kou Junqiang / Li Zhiqiang / Zhang Yingchun, Wei Wei, Long Hui / Wang Xinhua served as the chairman (legal representative) / Vice Chairman, General Manager / Chief financial officer, Secretary of the board of directors / Deputy General Manager / securities affairs representative of the company; Beijing Kingee Culture Development Co.Ltd(002721) has repurchased about 10.15 million shares, accounting for 1.06% of the total share capital and the total transaction amount is about 30.095 million yuan,; Two new direct stores were added in December 21; The net profit attributable to the parent company in Leysen Jewelry Inc(603900) 21 is expected to decrease by about 63 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of – 60%, mainly due to the Nanjing epidemic in the second half of the year and the provision for goodwill impairment of subsidiaries; Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) in December of 21, three new franchised stores were added in South and East China, with a total investment of 11.32 million yuan.
Risk tips
Terminal retail is less than expected; The price of upstream expansion fell; Downstream consumer education was less than expected.
