Approaching the off-season of traditional coal for the Spring Festival, the power coal market rebounded, and the price rose again to more than 1000 yuan.
On January 24, the interface news learned from a port thermal coal analyst that the spot price of thermal coal began to rise since mid January. The spot price of 5500 kcal thermal coal on January 24 has reached 1080-1090 yuan / ton, but the high coal price has no goods, and the trading volume is small.
On January 21, the weekly China power coal purchase price index released by the China Electricity Council showed that the 5500 kcal power coal index was reported at 1010 yuan per ton, an increase of 37 yuan / ton, or 3.8%, and 19.1% in the month.
The above analysts said that at present, the market demand for coal has been released in stages, but the spot has decreased and the coal inventory has fallen, causing the spot price of power coal to rise.
On the supply side, with the Winter Olympics approaching, the coal mine safety inspection is becoming stricter, and the Spring Festival approaching, some coal mines in the upstream are on holiday one after another. During the long Spring Festival holiday, the market coal is stopped, and some coal mine coal management tickets have been used up and are in the state of shutdown, reducing the amount of coal transferred out.
In addition, at present, the port coal price rises rapidly and the pit mouth coal price rises slowly, resulting in the high shipping cost and low shipping enthusiasm of traders. Most traders suspended shipping years ago or sold only locally.
According to Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) coal.com, at present, the average cost of arrival in Hong Kong is upside down by 20 yuan / ton, and most of the coal delivered by traders are received by fixed users.
According to the website, the coal price continued to fall in December last year, with the superposition of China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) (601088. SH) sharply reducing the coal price for four consecutive times, prompting traders to sell off, and the coal of many large trading enterprises has been sold off. At the beginning of this year, after the demand increased, the coal market was in short supply.
In terms of imported coal, Indonesia announced the suspension of coal export in early January. At present, it has resumed export, but the subsequent ships to be loaded have not resumed shipment. From late January to early February, it will be in the vacuum period of imported coal, and the purchase demand of downstream power plants for domestic trade coal will increase.
Port coal storage has declined. The interface news learned from the above people that up to now, the inventory of ports around the Bohai Sea is 16.35 million tons, with a daily average of 260000 tons lower than that of the previous month.
Yimei information said that the current port inventory is still rapidly decreasing. Due to the shortage of coal in the market, there is still structural support in the port market, and it is expected to operate weakly this week.
On the demand side, as the Spring Festival is approaching, the coal consumption of the power plant shows a seasonal decline, but there is still a policy demand for replenishment.
According to the interface news, in order to ensure the energy supply of the Winter Olympics, the days of power coal inventory of power plants in key areas such as North China need to be increased to more than 30 days. This has stimulated the enthusiasm of the power plant to replenish.
The above-mentioned person told the interface news that the demand for replenishment of small power plants in Northeast China is also very high, and the chemical industry also needs to prepare coal in advance, which also contributed to the continued strength of the pithead market.
For the follow-up coal market trend, the above analysts told the interface news that at present, the supply of spot transactions is weak and the demand is strong. It is expected that the coal price may still rise slightly during and after the Spring Festival. In the follow-up, with the relaxation of safety inspection and the release of coal production capacity, the coal price will gradually callback.
Since the fourth quarter of 2021, the market price of thermal coal has continued to rise due to factors such as coal supply and demand. In mid October, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal exceeded 2600 yuan / ton, breaking a record high, and the price of pit mouth coal once approached the 3000 yuan / ton mark.
After that, under a series of government policy combinations, coal prices have fallen sharply since December, falling below 1000 yuan / ton.
According to the data of the national development and Reform Commission, on January 12, 2022, China’s power coal inventory exceeded 162 million tons, which can be used for 21 days, 40 million tons higher than the same period last year, an increase of more than 30%, reaching a historical high in the same period.
