Current investment tips:
This week, Shenwan agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery index fell by 3.20%, and some key stocks rose in the top three: Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) (7.67%), Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) (4.87%), Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) (4.65%). Top three declines: Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) (- 14.79%), Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) (- 10.43%), Huaying agriculture (- 10.33%). Investment analysis opinions: focus on two major industry changes: improvement of aquaculture profits; Transgenic maize breeding promotion process. It is suggested to pay attention to: Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Fujian Tianma Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(603668) , Haida shares, Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) .
Key report this week: Fujian Tianma Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(603668) (603668) depth – the profit contribution of eel industry chain is expected to increase significantly. The company is mainly engaged in the production and sales of special aquatic feed. The market share of eel feed has remained the first in China for many years. Since 2018, the layout of eel industry chain has been gradually improved, and has successively entered the eel food processing and eel breeding industry. It is expected that the profits of eel breeding will appear significantly in 2022. It is estimated that the company has completed the launch of nearly 30 million eel seedlings in the 2020 / 2021 seedling season, and will focus on producing them out of the pond in 2022. The eel output is expected to reach 10000 tons in 2022; The seeding season of 2021 / 2022 is in progress, and the number of seedlings is expected to reach 50 million, supporting the production of 15000 tons of eel in 2023. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.74/6.01/7.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 30.1% / + 26.8% / + 18.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 95 / 3.23/403 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 38% / + 239% / + 25%. For the first time, give a “buy” rating.
Special topic of this week: summary of poultry breeding industry in December and summary of 2021 – white chicken has abundant production capacity and profit differentiation in all links of the industrial chain; Yellow chicken production capacity continued to decline, and the bottom of the boom warmed up. White feather broiler: in December, the price of parent generation chicken seedlings decreased slightly, the breeding link still maintained good profits, the price of commercial generation chicken seedlings continued to decline, and the loss range was further widened. Entering the peak consumption season and the weather turns cold, the difficulty of breeding has increased occasionally. The prices of wool chicken and chicken have increased slightly month on month. The breeding link has maintained profitability, and the loss range of slaughtering link has expanded month on month. In the whole year of 2021, the overall supply of the industry is abundant, and the supply of all links has increased by 5% – 10%. The profit differentiation of the industrial chain is serious, the upstream volume and price rise together, the profit is at a historical high, and the slaughtering link suffers serious losses (the price of parent generation chicken seedlings is + 61%, the price of commodity generation chicken seedlings is + 14%, the price of wool chicken is + 11% and the price of chicken is – 1.1% year-on-year). Yellow feather broiler: the loss continued in 2021, and the recovery was obvious at the end of December. Under the background that the supply side is still relatively abundant and the price of pigs, the main alternative product, has fallen sharply, the yellow feather broiler industry as a whole has continued its losses in 2020, while the production capacity side has been significantly de diversified. In December 2021, the stock of yellow feather broilers in the production of ancestral breeding chickens was 1394200 sets, a month on month ratio of – 2.0%, and the stock of parental breeding chickens in the production was 13756400 sets, a month on month ratio of + 2.0%, but the absolute level was still the lowest in the same period since 2018. The bottom of the product price recovered, and the price of yellow feather chicken generally rose in December. The average price of fast chicken was 7.01 yuan / kg, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.8%, a month on month increase of + 3.5%, the average price of medium speed chicken was 7.41 yuan / kg, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.5%, a month on month increase of + 0.9%, the price of slow chicken (native chicken) was 8.84 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.7%, a month on month increase of – 0.2%, and the average price of black bone chicken was 7.04 yuan / kg, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.8%, a month on month increase of. Investment analysis opinion: white chicken attaches importance to growth, while yellow chicken layout is reversed. In terms of white feather broilers, the upstream production capacity is at an all-time high, and the trend of abundant supply remains unchanged; Under the background of the gradual recovery of pork supply, it is difficult for the demand for poultry substitution to improve greatly. White feather broiler industry chain is difficult to usher in cycle reversal in the short term. It is suggested to grasp the medium and long-term development certainty of leading enterprises in the whole industrial chain (alpha logic has been highlighted), and recommend the white feather broiler leader Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) focusing on the acceleration of capacity expansion and 2C brand construction. In terms of yellow feather broilers, the pressure on the supply side of the industry has gradually weakened, the rapid decline of pig prices and the closure of the live poultry market are the two negative factors for the demand of yellow feather broilers, the marginal improvement can be expected, and the recovery at the bottom of the industry is more certain. Follow Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) .
This week’s recommendation: continue to recommend the configuration value on the left side of the pig breeding sector – stop the fluctuation of pig prices this week, the trend of “double bottom” remains unchanged, and the direction of capacity removal is determined. Continue to recommend to grasp the golden layout period on the left side of Q1 pig breeding sector. Pig prices rebounded slightly after a sideways shock this week. According to Zhu Yitong, on January 23, the average selling price of three yuan live pigs abroad was 14.33 yuan / kg, up 3.5% on a weekly basis. This week, the National Bureau of statistics released the data of pig industry in 2021. By the end of 2021, the number of live pigs in China was 449 million, an increase of 10.5% over the end of 2020, and the number of fertile sows was 43.29 million, an increase of 4.0% over the end of 2020. The number of fertile sows continued to decrease quarter on quarter, down 2.9% from 44.59 million at the end of Q3. Some investors are concerned about the comparison between the number of fertile sows (42.96 million) released by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas at the end of November and the data released by the National Bureau of statistics at the end of 2021. Based on the absolute value of the data, the number of fertile sows increased in December alone. In fact, the National Bureau of statistics and the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas have two different systems for monitoring the amount of fertile sows. The National Bureau of statistics only publishes the amount of fertile sows at the end of the quarter, and the monthly month on month change can only refer to the data of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas. We expect that in the monitoring system of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the stock of fertile sows still maintained a downward trend in December, but with the seasonal rebound of pig prices, the de conversion range narrowed, with a monthly decline of less than 0.5%. Investment analysis opinion: the “second bottom” of pig price is gradually approaching, the extent of capacity removal of the industry can be accelerated, and the layout period of pig breeding sector is ahead of schedule. With reference to the number of fertile sows (peaking and falling in July 2021) and the number of newborn piglets on the monitoring farm of the Pig Industry Association (declining slightly month on month from September 2021), the highest point of pig supply should appear from March to may 2022. This kind of expectation is not only widely spread in the capital market, but also formed a relatively clear consensus expectation at the breeding end, especially the free range farmers with more flexible marketing rhythm, after repeated emphasis and tips by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas. The result is to lose weight and get out of the market, and the “second bottom” of pig price will come in advance (in fact, losing body and getting out of the market is an overdraft of short-term supply, and the upward inflection point will also be advanced). Therefore, the 2022q1 industrial end may once again enter the range of accelerating the downward trend of pig price and expected rapid fermentation of production capacity. Investors on the left side of the “pig cycle” enter the key layout period. Recommend the pig breeding sector as a whole. In terms of subject matter, we recommend enterprises that focus on continuous cost optimization and still have significant growth expectations, focusing on Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , and Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) .
Risk tips: the prices of pigs and broilers remain low, and the breeding and promotion process of genetically modified corn is delayed; Breeding outbreak.
