Main points
Market Review
Last week (2022.1.17-1.21), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 1.11%, and the real estate sector rose 2.22%. The real estate sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.18 percentage points and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.10 percentage points. Key A-share real estate companies Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) (601155. SH), Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) (000656. SZ), Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) (000069. SZ) increased significantly, up 13.36%, 10.62% and 7.93% respectively. H-share real estate companies focused on rongchuang China (1918. HK), Shimao Group (0813. HK) and times China Holdings (1233. HK) led the gains, with increases of 24.62%, 23.69% and 21.79% respectively
Industry dynamics
1.10-1.15,30 large and medium-sized cities sold 3.2205 million square meters of commercial housing, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 31.34%. Among them, 778200 square meters of commercial housing were sold in first tier cities, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 23.04%, 1857900 square meters in second tier cities, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 16.35%, and 584400 square meters in third tier cities, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 57.87%.
Industry news
There are 38 residential plots in the third batch of centralized land supply in Ningbo, all of which are sold, with a total transfer area of about 2145 mu. Among them, three plots “hit the top” entered the lottery link, with a total transaction price of more than 24.7 billion.
On January 20, 2022, the quoted interest rate (LPR) of the loan market is: 1-year LPR is 3.7%, and more than 5-year LPR is 4.6%. On December 20, 2021, the quoted interest rate (LPR) of the loan market is: 1-year LPR is 3.8%, and more than 5-year LPR is 4.65%.
Investment advice
The credit environment still needs to be improved. The Matthew effect of capital is prominent. Enterprises with low financing cost and land acquisition advantage may benefit. The relevant targets: (1) leading real estate enterprises with low financing cost and can continuously obtain land in first and second tier cities, such as green city China (3900. HK), Longhu group (0960. HK), etc; (2) Real estate enterprises that are less affected by the “two concentration” land policy and can obtain land through diversified ways such as land listing, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) (601155. SH), Baolong real estate (1238. HK), etc; (3) Leading enterprises in the property management industry and enterprises that layout high-quality segments of the property management industry, such as Country Garden Service (6098. HK), Xincheng Yue service (1755. HK), China Resources Vientiane life (1209. HK), Baolong Commerce (9909. HK) and Xingsheng Commerce (6668. HK).
Risk tips
Tightening of real estate regulation policies; Real estate sales fell short of expectations.
