The trend of the three major A-share indexes was divided today, and the Shanghai index closed up slightly by 0.04% to close at 3524.11 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to close at 14081.80; The gem index rose 0.72% to close at 3056.43. The market turnover continued to shrink, with only 864.2 billion yuan today. Industry sectors rose less and fell more, lithium, photovoltaic, wind power and other new energy track stocks rose sharply, and covid-19 drug concept stocks fell sharply.
Today’s news:
1. Xie Zhiyu, Dong Chengfei and Liu Yanchun’s positions are released! Here comes the latest investment weathervane
2. The United States is pushing 330 billion stimulus plan to target this field! The EU has also made big moves to expand the production of trillion giants by 130 billion
3. Intensive collection of dental implants on the road: who will step on the profit?
4. The first fed interest rate week of the year is coming: will the tide of US bond selling intensify?
5. The total inflow of foreign capital reached a new high, and the “giant” of global asset management sang more Chinese assets
6. The new energy vehicle enterprises in the head suddenly spread big news, and the concept stocks with high attention from institutions are coming!
7. What is a 100 fold increase in performance? Exceeding expectations is the king! More than 200 stocks piled up higher than expected
8. What’s the charm? 238 institutions investigated the lithium battery enterprise, and these companies were investigated by more than 100 institutions
For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the “policy bottom” has been made clear, the “emotional bottom” is coming, and the “market bottom” is gradually approaching. It is suggested to continue to focus on the “two low” layout of blue chips to meet the starting point of the market in the first half of the year. First of all, the data show that the time point of the greatest downward pressure on the economy has passed, but the dependence on policies is still strong. The local “two sessions” show that there is an obvious trend of stabilizing the economy with investment, and after the monetary force is stronger than expected, the policies of other ministries and local governments are forming a joint force, and the “policy bottom” has been clear. Secondly, the emotional catharsis caused by the collapse of high-level groups is coming to an end. The short-term adjustment of the market deviates from both the trend of monetary easing and the fundamental trend of policy support. The differentiation of internal and external capital behavior is also evidence that the “emotional bottom” is coming. Finally, with the continuous improvement of the consensus on the main line of steady growth and the end of emotional catharsis, it is expected that market funds will resume inflow, and the “market bottom” is gradually approaching.
According to Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities, since the beginning of 2022, the core reason for the downward shock in the Chinese market is the negative disturbance at the denominator end. On the one hand, the expectation of overseas interest rate increase and reduction was advanced, and the real interest rate rose rapidly. The 10-year US bond interest rate once hit 1.88%, and the NASDAQ index fell sharply by 7.55% during the week. As the inflection point of global liquidity has arrived, it will bring marginal fluctuations to China’s liquidity expectations from the perspective of asset allocation. On the other hand, China’s real estate credit worries and covid-19 epidemic twists and turns suppress risk appetite. We believe that overseas, although high interest rates will negatively suppress the equity market, the rise of low US bond interest rates will not have a severe impact on the valuation of US stocks, and the resulting “US stocks → A shares” risk transmission is relatively limited. At the same time, China is still in the window period of monetary policy easing, and the central bank actively “moves forward”. With the comprehensive reduction of reserve requirements in December and the reduction of MLF and LPR interest rates in January, the momentum of “steady growth” is further consolidated, and the negative expectations are accelerating to digest.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that historically, the Chinese market often experienced “policy bottom, sentiment bottom and growth bottom” in turn in the cycle of bottoming and recovery. We believe that the “policy bottom” has been confirmed between September 30 and December last year at the central economic work conference, and the “sentiment bottom” may be around from the near future to the early part of the first quarter, The “bottom of growth” is expected to appear around the first quarter to the second quarter. During the three rounds of obvious “steady growth” at the end of 2014, the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2020, the initial market performed poorly due to emotional inertia, and the growth style decreased significantly. After the relevant forward-looking indicators such as social finance, credit, infrastructure and real estate were repaired, the market tended to perform better after the improvement of market sentiment. It is expected that the above-mentioned emotional factors may still inhibit market performance near the Spring Festival. In particular, the announcement of overall default of overseas debt by some real estate developers may also disturb market sentiment. However, in the future, with the continuous introduction of “steady growth” policy details, the possible improvement of forward-looking indicators and the gradual stabilization of China’s growth, market sentiment is also expected to be repaired. In terms of style, we believe that “steady growth” is still the main line of the future stage, and the space for sharp decline in growth style may be relatively limited, but we may not be in a hurry to copy the bottom. We still maintain the previous “steady growth” style, which may last until the end of the first quarter.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities believes that the position should not be reduced at present, but should be increased gradually. Three major negative concerns in the early stage: 1. Worry about China’s slow monetary policy and poor credit easing effect; 2. Insufficient incremental funds, and the issuance of new funds is lower than expected; 3. Fed hawks said global liquidity tightening expectations. Recently, it has been basically reacted by the market, or it will land or be overly worried: compared with Hong Kong stocks and funds going north, the A-share market is pessimistic enough about the economic downturn. At present, China is in the “double width” cycle of wide money + wide credit, and there is still room for further easing in the follow-up. With the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy, market doubts are expected to improve, and the benefits of interest rate cuts on the numerator and denominator will gradually appear. At the same time, after the Spring Festival, the market risk appetite has improved, the issuance of new funds has warmed up, and the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve has made the expectation of raising interest rates bearish, which is expected to form a favorable time window from after the Spring Festival to before the two sessions. At present, our view on the follow-up market has become more positive. It is suggested to cherish and grasp the upcoming counter attack market.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that the spring market of A-Shares has never been absent in the past 20 years, and the spring market with the background of stable growth policy, such as 2012, the end of 2014 – the beginning of 2015 and 2019. The common characteristics of the steady growth spring market are: value first and then growth. In the early stage, the value of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and national securities led the rise, and in the later stage, the growth of gem and national securities led the rise. The steady growth policy is clear this time. The market background in spring is similar to that in the previous three times. The value and growth are expected to take turns, such as underestimated large finance, real estate and hard technology of new infrastructure.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that at present, China’s economy is in the scenario of simultaneous decline of growth rate and inflation rate, which generally corresponds to weak stocks and strong debts; After stabilizing and recovering, the equity market will have a new round of opportunities. The US economy is overheating and is trying to control inflation. Overheating scenarios generally correspond to bond bear market and stock bull to bear market. Looking to the future, the best measure for the United States to deal with inflation is actually to accelerate energy production, rather than the Federal Reserve to accelerate contraction, which may lead to further decline of the U.S. economy and fall into the risk of stagflation. The stagflation environment is a bear for both stocks and bonds. For China, the current corporate earnings expectations have declined, so the stock market has performed poorly. However, a new round of steady growth policies have been introduced one after another. If the recovery can be realized in 2021q1, a new round of opportunities should appear in the equity market. At the same time, as China’s trade surplus, capital inflow and RMB exchange rate remain high, it has the ability to implement the “I-oriented” policy and resist external shocks to a certain extent.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) indicates that the market is still tangled in the bottom area. 1. MLF interest rate cut, the central bank said to “open the monetary policy toolbox more”, and the one-year and five-year LPR cut. The direction of policy easing has been clear, but the market is still skeptical about the rhythm and intensity of policy easing.
2. The Fed’s concern about raising interest rates and even shrinking the table, and the sharp rise in US bond interest rates led to a sharp decline in US stocks, especially technology stocks, which also dragged down China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) , semiconductors and other sectors. The layout on the left is “mini version 2014”. 1) Grasping the main contradiction is now a time window for “steady growth” and “broad credit” at the margin: since the economic work conference in December 2021, the central bank has continuously reduced the reserve requirement and policy interest rate, issued a new special debt of 1.46 trillion in advance, and issued major projects in some provinces and cities in January earlier than in previous years. Various signals and data are constantly verifying the direction of marginal “wide credit”. 2) Referring to 2014, the tone of policy relaxation was established in the first half of the year, and social finance basically hit the bottom in April, but the index market was not officially launched until the interest rate cut in November. And every tangle and adjustment has become a layout opportunity. 3) However, the difference between now and 2014 lies in that, on the one hand, 2014 is a comprehensive and systematic relaxation. At present, under the general tone of “no speculation in real estate and housing” and “no promotion in infrastructure”, the intensity and space of policy easing are relatively limited, which is more likely to be phased and underpinned relaxation. On the other hand, 2014 gradually evolved into a round of leveraged cattle, while the current market leverage is weak, and institutional funds are still the dominant force in the market. Therefore, this round of market or similar “mini version 2014”, and now it is the left layout window.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that the power of incremental funds to enter the market in the near future is insufficient, and the market sentiment may be light. 1) Net sales of financing funds for five consecutive weeks, and the proportion of financing purchases in the turnover of A-Shares was 6.67%, which fell below 7% for the first time since 2020, at a low level in recent three years; 2) Since the beginning of the year, the average interval returns of equity funds and partial equity hybrid funds are – 4.70% and – 6.18% respectively. The lack of profit-making effect corresponds to the cooling of the fund issuance market, and the issuance of equity funds is relatively flat; 3) The all a equity risk premium is above the median since 2010, and the turnover of A-share market has also shrunk in the past five days, indicating that the risk appetite of A-share market decreased slightly before the festival. Investment strategy: the shock remains the same, and we should follow the main line of “stable growth”. Near the Spring Festival, A-Shares are affected by the disturbance of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the uncertainty of the news before the long holiday. The power of incremental funds to enter the market is insufficient, and A-Shares still show the characteristics of structural market. Since December, China’s steady growth policy has made forward-looking efforts. The central bank has cut reserve requirements and interest rates one after another, and there is still room for subsequent interest rate cuts. The market is in a “wide money” window period, and macro liquidity is expected to remain relatively loose. Structurally, “wide credit” is the ultimate demand of the central bank for wide money. Infrastructure and real estate are important. The real estate regulation policy is expected to be marginal loose. Urban renewal, affordable housing construction and new infrastructure are the key directions. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to focus on “undervalued blue chip”: first, it is related to traditional infrastructure, such as banks and building materials; Second, the real estate and its upstream and downstream industrial chain benefiting from the marginal improvement of real estate policy. Focus on topics: digital economy, meta universe, traditional Chinese medicine, etc.
Guosheng Securities believes that since December last year, real estate sales, new construction and other data have deteriorated again, and the real estate chain continues to become a drag on the economy. The risks on the real estate side and the weakness of front-end data also mean that there is a need for further easing on the policy side. The signal released by the five-year LPR reduction is of greater significance. The end of the policy has been clear, and the probability will be substantially loosened in the future. Before the real reversal of economic data, the easing intensity may be amplified step by step, and the credit conditions have ushered in a real sense of stabilization. The m1-ppi scissors gap is repaired upward. The policy easing, credit stabilization and market expectation are expected to gradually return to a virtuous circle. In the stage of weak credit and economy in history, the success rate of large finance is the highest. With the digestion of growth, it is expected to open a wave of resonance market after the Spring Festival. Strategic suggestions and industry recommendations: (1) steady growth is still the largest beta main line in Q1. High quality banks, state-owned enterprise developers, buildings / building materials are recommended; （2） The new infrastructure development direction is: wind and solar energy storage, power operation and communication; （3） Auto parts and household appliances with reversed upstream costs benefit from low valuation and concept catalyzed media.
Minsheng Securities said that last week, the overall A-share market was still down, with the market and value style leading, and the small and medium-sized growth style leading the market. The return of value is becoming a market consensus. At present, two risks are already on the way of Pricing: first, the synergy of Chinese and American stock market styles is rising; Second, in the process of market adjustment, the “contagion” between heavy positions may have begun to affect the market. It is impossible to predict the end of short-term fluctuations, but market opportunities are already emerging. Investors should not only focus on the risks in the market, but rather think ahead rather than stop. The portfolio avoiding the problem of aggregate economy is falling into the pressure of retreat and continuous adjustment. It seems like a “desperate situation”, but it is also forcing investors in the whole market to gather a new consensus. We cannot expect the end of short-term fluctuations, but market opportunities are already emerging. Investors should not only focus on the risks in the market, but rather think ahead rather than stop. Our suggestion is: pay attention to the recovery of credit, pay attention to the elasticity of inflation, and embrace the return of value. Recommended: nonferrous metals (copper, aluminum, gold), banks, coal, real estate, steel and crude oil (oil and gas exploitation, oil transportation). On the theme, Rural Revitalization (digital government, county consumption) is recommended.
future analysis
Dexun securities Gu: the stop decline signal rebounded or expanded in the near future
Yuanda: continue to be cautious before the festival and be appropriately optimistic after the festival
Hexin investment consulting: the impact of low opening and contraction of the index appears before the festival
