Recently, with the announcement of "the installed capacity of wind power of the national energy group has reached 50 million kilowatts and remains the first in the world", the market responded positively. Industry insiders told the financial associated press that although the rush of onshore wind power installation in 2020 and offshore wind power installation in 2021 have ended, based on the public bidding volume of CCCC in 2021, the installed capacity of wind power will continue to rise in 2022, which is expected to be close to the rush scale in 2020; At the same time, the downward trend of wind power bidding price will promote the large-scale development and rapid iteration of wind turbines, and the development trend of semi direct drive fan technology route will appear.
As of the closing on January 24, the wind power industry (931672) index closed at 2084.34, up 1.99%. Several stocks such as Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) (000155. SZ), Jiangsu Zhenjiang Newenergy Equipment Co.Ltd(603507) (603507. SH), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (300274. SZ), Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) (603063) rose by more than 5%.
insiders: the installed capacity in 2022 is expected to be close to the scale of rush loading in 2020
The abundant industry bidding scale in 2021 is expected to support the installed capacity of the industry in 2022. An upstream person of the wind power industry chain said in an interview with the financial Associated Press: "In 2021, the number of Chinese companies bidding exceeded 50gw, approaching the highest level in history. This part of bidding will enter the implementation stage in 2022. According to our recent market research, the installed capacity of wind power will continue to rise in 2022, but considering the changes of material cost, the overall installed capacity will continue to rise, and it is expected to approach or reach the rush installed scale in 2020." According to public data, in 2020, China's new wind power grid connected installed capacity was 71.67gw, and the cumulative wind power installed capacity reached 281.5gw.
In addition, under the background of carbon neutrality, the installed capacity of wind power is also favored by people in the industry. "Cheap access to the Internet leads to a rush for installation, and the end of subsidies means a healthier development of the industry. China has clearly put forward the goal of carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutralization by 2060. In December 2021, the national energy administration proposed that the installed capacity of renewable energy generation will account for more than 50% of China's total installed capacity by the end of the 14th five year plan, which is very important for China as the main force of new energy The wind power industry is a great benefit. " An insider told the financial associated press.
A person close to Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) (002202. SZ) also said: "from the middle and lower reaches of the wind power industry, the industry previously issued the Beijing Declaration on wind energy It is proposed that during the "14th five year plan" period, China's annual installed capacity of wind power is more than 50gw. Compared with the average annual level of 15-25gw during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the industry demand is doubling. Therefore, it is expected that the demand of the wind power industry will be better in the next few years. " According to the Beijing Declaration on wind energy, the average annual new installed capacity after 2025 should not be less than 60GW.
It is reported that since 2022, China has launched bidding for a number of wind power projects, including Lufeng Liaoning 700MW, Huaneng 510mw, etc. Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) analysts said in the research report that the continuous release of new land wind and sea wind projects indicates that the annual market bidding is expected to reach a new high; High prosperity wind turbine head enterprises Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) (002202. SZ), Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) (601615. SH) benefiting from the bidding volume of the industry.
From the perspective of combing, the wind power industry chain mainly includes blades, castings, slewing ring, fan host, wind tower, submarine cable, converter, wind farm operation, etc. Among them, the wind turbine host and wind turbine blades account for the majority of the whole wind power project. According to public data, the price of wind turbine is more than 40% of the whole wind power project, and the procurement cost of wind turbine blades accounts for about 15% ~ 20% of the cost of wind power.
(Note: the listed companies involved in the wind power industry chain are produced by the Financial Association, which comes from the sorting of company announcements and public materials)
the bidding cost has declined continuously, and the trend of "semi direct drive" technology path appears
With the bidding price of wind power entering the downward channel since the beginning of 2020, the industry chain is also facing changes; According to public data, the average bidding price of wind power in 2021 fell from 3300 yuan / kW to 2200 yuan / kW. "The downward bidding price promotes the large-scale development and rapid iteration of wind turbines to adapt to the new market competition environment. At the same time, the transmission technology route of each main engine will be adjusted due to the pressure of cost, such as the development from direct drive to semi direct drive." The above industry insiders told the financial associated press.
On the one hand, the decline logic of bidding price is that the price reduction of wind power equipment is an inevitable requirement for wind power to enter the era of parity; On the other hand, the price reduction of the industry is also an important manifestation of technological progress. According to the reporter, according to different technical routes, the wind power system can be divided into doubly fed fan, direct drive fan and semi direct drive fan. The semi direct drive fan is the integration of doubly fed fan and direct drive fan. It uses synchronous motor, but it also has medium and low speed gearbox structure. Doubly fed fan is the most primitive of the three types of fans.
In contrast, the semi direct drive fan has the advantages of small generator volume, low installation cost and low gear failure rate; Direct drive fan has the advantages of low mechanical failure rate and strong low-voltage ride through ability.
In addition to cost considerations, industry analysts believe that the semi direct drive technical route is the optimal solution under the trend of large-scale fan. According to public data, under the trend of large-scale fan, the quality of direct drive type will increase exponentially. When the fan power exceeds 10MW, the mass of single fan may reach 800 tons, compared with 300-500 tons of semi direct drive type. It is reported that Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) is the first company in China to use the technical route of semi direct drive fan; Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) the performance forecast was released on January 24. It is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 2.9-3.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 111.05% - 132.88%.
In addition, talking about the impact of the decline in bidding price on the industrial chain, The above industry analysts believe that: "The decline of bidding price and price reduction will bring about the technical optimization and cost control of all links in the wind power industry chain, which puts forward higher requirements for the R & D efficiency, manufacturing efficiency, supply management and quality management of the industry chain. For example, due to the improvement of materials and technology, the torque of gearbox has nearly doubled in recent years, and the bearing scheme of rotating parts has been modified to reduce the comprehensive cost of lubrication."
(Note: wind power on grid price, data from NDRC documents)
It is worth mentioning that in terms of the on grid price of wind power, the above-mentioned people in the industry told the associated press that the newly approved onshore wind power will fully realize the on grid price without subsidies in 2021; Many industries believe that with the continuous promotion of cost reduction of offshore wind power, it is expected that China's offshore wind projects are expected to achieve parity online in 2022. Analysts at Anxin Securities said in a recent research report that with the advent of the parity era and the superposition of "double carbon" target policy stimulus, the green power industry has ushered in the peak of production under the dual role of industrial trend and policy promotion; At the same time, the green power transaction was officially opened in 2021, bringing a high premium for affordable scenery projects; Under the background of "double carbon", we continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities of green power sector in 2022.
