coin Holders: under the current cold issuance of public funds and the wait-and-see attitude of OTC funds, it may be difficult to make a big change before the Spring Festival. It is recommended that investors hold coins for the new year and wait for the opportunity to increase their positions after the new year.
shareholding School: combined with the optimistic attitude of A-share liquidity and the large purchase of A-share core assets by going north, investors can adhere to their own investment strategy, choose to hold shares for the holidays, and pay attention to the high-quality assets that have been wrongly killed in the structural market and whose performance needs to be reversed.
Can the red envelope market be expected in the last week before the Spring Festival of the year of the tiger? How to configure before the Spring Festival, holding shares for the new year or holding money for the new year?
On January 24, with the recovery of energy metals and other sectors, A-share shocks rebounded slightly. Today, the Shanghai stock index rose slightly by 0.04% to 3524 points, with a cumulative decline of more than 3% since 2022; The gem index rose 0.72% to 3056 points today, and has fallen more than 8% since 2022; The trading atmosphere of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets cooled again, and the daily trading volume fell to 866.1 billion yuan. In terms of sectors, the military industry, steel, lithium metal, energy storage, photovoltaic and other sectors that have been callback since 2022 have rebounded today, driving the rise of the market.
The reporter of the international finance news interviewed several analysts and learned that the “profit taking” of high boom tracks such as new energy has been obvious since 2022. Today, it will pick up or rebound in short-term technology, and the bottom of the decline remains to be seen.
For holding shares or holding money for the new year, some people believe that under the current cold issuance of public funds and the wait-and-see attitude of OTC funds, it may be difficult to make a big change before the Spring Festival. It is suggested that investors hold money for the new year and wait for opportunities to increase their positions after the new year. However, some analysts pointed out that in combination with the optimistic attitude of A-share liquidity and the large purchase of A-share core assets by going north, investors can adhere to their own investment strategy, choose to hold shares for the holidays, and pay attention to the high-quality assets that have been wrongly killed in the structural market and whose performance needs to be reversed.
new energy track stop falling?
After rising all the way in 2021, there has been an obvious phenomenon of “profit taking” in high boom tracks such as new energy, chips and military industry since 2022, especially dragging down the gem index.
On January 24, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) rose more than 2% and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) fell nearly 2%. Power equipment (Shenwan) led the rise with an increase of 2%, with a turnover of 78.6 billion yuan. Salt lake lithium concept stocks closed up 4%, Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) limit. Solid state battery, lithium battery, energy storage, photovoltaic and other concept sectors rose gratifying.
“Today’s new energy track rebounded, but the volume energy is not large. Investors can pay attention to the volume energy of the subsequent rebound to observe the time node when the valuation of the track will end.” He Jinlong, general manager of Meili investment, said in an interview with the reporter of the international finance news that the recent interest rate cut is to some extent to counter the risk of falling commodity and asset prices caused by the US dollar. Under the macro environment of maintaining loose monetary capital in the first half of 2022, the probability of systemic risk is not high at present. In the recent correction of many tracks, the profit-making effect exists under the structural market and rebound market of index shock.
“The penetration rate of the new energy vehicle industry in China has exceeded 20%. According to the valuation change law of the growing industry in the past, it has entered the downward revision stage of valuation, and it is difficult to have trend opportunities on the whole.” Zhao Yuanyuan, investment director of Jianhong times, analyzed and pointed out in an interview with the reporter of the international finance news that attention can be paid to local opportunities such as high-voltage fast charging and battery technology. The automotive industry will focus on intelligence in 2022. As far as the influencing factors of the peripheral market are concerned, the hawkish attitude of foreign countries has been fully digested by the market. The probability of new risks in the periphery during the Spring Festival is small, so there is no need to worry about a sharp low opening after the festival. Cautious investors are advised to hedge with option instruments. In the first quarter, we were relatively optimistic about cyclical stocks represented by underground pipe gallery and growth stocks represented by digital economy and smart cars. For the energy infrastructure sector in the “double carbon” track, midline investors can bargain hunting after the earnings season.
According to Hu Po, the fund manager of private placement network, there has been a great adjustment in high boom tracks such as new energy. There may be a technical rebound in the short term, but it is difficult to predict the bottom. It should be noted that the high landscape of new energy can still be sustained, but there will also be differentiation between the upper, middle and lower reaches of the new energy track itself. Therefore, in the next investment process, the research ability of subdivided tracks and individual stocks will be very important. Recently, the phenomenon of “high-low switching” of the track is obvious. Funds flow out of this high boom track and then flow into undervalued sectors such as banking, real estate and infrastructure. However, it is unlikely to reverse the performance of the undervalued sector. It is more likely to be the value of rebound and allocation, so it is difficult to expect a high range.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, told our reporter that the current A-share market is still a structurally differentiated market, which is neither a bull market nor a bear market. It is suggested to lay out high-quality assets when the market is extremely pessimistic, which is a better reverse investment strategy. Of course, due to the large increase last year, the valuation differences have increased, and the volatility of the new energy sector has increased significantly this year. In the long run, there is a lot of room for the future development of new energy. In case of irrational decline in the market, we can focus on some leading new energy stocks killed by mistake.
How to view the new energy market at present? Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) frankly speaking in the research report, when the industrial trend continues and the growth space remains to be realized, it continues to be optimistic in the medium term, but neutral and cautious in the short term. What is logic? When the micro trading structure deteriorates, there is a lack of catalysis from unexpected factors. At the current style level, the “water flowing down” further suppresses the improvement of track stock valuation. The pure new energy track has been in a crowded state. Although the actual profit performance is still in an upward trend, the rebalancing of supply and demand pattern in 2022 has led to the slowdown of expected growth. In the later stage, we are optimistic about the market interpretation from “pure new energy” to “Pan new energy”, such as new material track.
When will the mood of A shares pick up?
Looking back on the recent performance of a shares, it has been in a “bad start” situation since 2022. Under the drag of the decline of consumer stocks, the cumulative decline of the Shanghai index during the period exceeded 3%; Under the correction of chips, medicine, energy and other sectors, the gem index fell by more than 8% during the period.
Fortunately, there is good news in terms of liquidity. On January 17, the central bank launched 700 billion yuan of medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 100 billion yuan of open market reverse repo, and the interest rate decreased by 10 basis points. On January 20, the LPR was lowered as scheduled, and the one-year LPR and the five-year LPR decreased by 10 basis points and 5 basis points respectively compared with the previous period.
For the reasons for the recent obvious correction of a shares, Hu Bo told the reporter of the international finance news that there is indeed uncertainty in the current macro-economy, but the recent correction exceeded the overall expectation. At present, the most important problem is the emotional impact. The conservative fund position reduction behavior has induced the stop loss of institutional investors such as public offering, so there will be a relatively large correction in the overall market, especially in the high boom track. In the current situation of cold issuance of public funds and obvious wait-and-see mood of OTC funds, it may be difficult to make a big change before the Spring Festival.
When can A-share sentiment usher in a “recovery”? Zhao Yuanyuan analyzed to our reporter that the medium-term trend of the stock index has little to do with the interest rate, but more to do with the marginal change of the base currency.
The increase of new base currency in January was less than that in December last year, and the hawk adjustment of the Federal Reserve led to the decline of the index since the beginning of the year. At present, the index is close to overshoot in the short term, but the short-term rebound will be weak due to the small probability that the base currency increment in February is greater than that in January.
Overall, how will the market deduce? Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out in the research report that at present, the A-share market still continues the structural market, and the market trading activity is warmer than that in previous weeks. In the last week before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to recover part of the “lost land”, but the momentum of trend rise is still insufficient, and more may be the technical rise after continuous correction.
Huaxin Securities believes that A-Shares continue to adjust after new year’s day, and the three major indexes hit a new low last Friday, but an important bottom signal has appeared. The momentum index shows that the deviation signal of A-Shares has appeared. Although it is a time-sharing rebound signal, it also means that the last week before the festival has entered the rebound cycle.
shareholding or cash for the new year?
How should investors adjust their positions in the last week before the Chinese new year? Holding shares for the Chinese new year or holding money for the Chinese new year?
Northbound capital is regarded as “smart capital”. When the A-share correction downturn since 2022, northbound capital has accumulated an inflow of more than 40 billion yuan, buying large financial stocks such as Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) consumer stocks such as Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) infrastructure stocks such as Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) lithium metals, Byd Company Limited(002594) new energy A-share core assets.
In combination with the recent release of liquidity, he Jinlong also analyzed to the reporter of the international finance news that the recent northward capital inflow has exceeded 10 billion. At present, the net inflow has exceeded 5 days. In addition, China has recently lowered MLF and LPR, which is in the interest rate reduction cycle, and the easing in the general direction has high certainty. Therefore, investors can stick to their own investment strategy and choose to hold shares for the holidays.
He Jinlong further told our reporter that for medium – and long-term investors, it is easy to reduce the success rate of profit by selecting investment targets from bottom to top and obtaining long-term returns with strong certainty; For short-term preference investors, choose risk aversion in undervalued sectors, or choose sectors and individual stocks with oversold rebound technically. You can also choose to hold shares for the holidays. Under the general policy direction of interest rate reduction, investors can choose high boom industries with oversold growth style and rebound. For new and old infrastructure with steady growth, there will also be opportunities for valuation repair. Under the spring market, the opportunities of large financial sectors such as securities companies driven by policies, the consumption sector and internal differentiation market brought by consumption upgrading will also bring profit-making effect.
Considering the poor mood of funds, Hu Po suggested that investors hold money for the new year and wait for the opportunity to increase their positions after the new year. The main contradiction in the current market is the influence of market sentiment and the resulting structural asymmetry of short-term stock market trading funds, which promotes the continuous correction of the current market. In the absence of wealth creating effect, the fund wait-and-see mood will be more serious.
However, Hu Bo is not pessimistic about the market in 2022, and the overall liquidity will still be abundant. After the adjustment of the overall market, it is a good opportunity for layout, focusing on two aspects: one is to observe the performance reversal opportunities of consumer stocks, and the other is the high boom track after full adjustment, in which the upstream, middle and downstream segments and individual stocks may have better investment opportunities.
