The fourth quarter reports of public funds in 2021 have been released one after another, and the differences between fund managers and bank stocks have increased.
The first financial reporter found that in the disclosed four seasons report of public funds, regional banks are still favored by many fund managers, but the differences between joint-stock banks with relatively high valuation are more obvious. Take e-fonda Zhang Kun as an example. Many products under its management reduced their holdings by Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) in the fourth quarter of last year; Qiu Dongrong of Zhonggeng fund continued to increase the positions of Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) and other agricultural commercial banks while reducing the holdings of China Everbright Bank Company Limited Co.Ltd(601818) Hong Kong shares.
According to the bank performance letters released recently, the overall performance of banks in 2021 exceeded expectations, especially the performance growth of urban commercial banks and rural commercial industries. The overall growth of the banking sector in the secondary market has exceeded 6% this year. The loose monetary policy environment is conducive to the improvement of bank asset quality, and institutions are generally optimistic about the future performance of bank stocks. Some analysts believe that there is still strong support for the bank’s performance in the first quarter of 2022, and the secondary market is expected to continue in the same period, but it may return to stability after the second quarter.
some banks are preferred , and some banks are reduced
Since the third quarter of last year, the action of institutions to increase positions in bank stocks has attracted much market attention, among which many urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks have entered the ranks of heavy positions in major funds. In the recently disclosed four seasons report of the fund, there are many star fund managers such as Qiu Dongrong of Zhonggeng fund continue to increase their positions in bank stocks.
As early as last year’s third quarterly report, Qiu Dongrong said that he would focus on the allocation of four directions, look for investment opportunities for A-Shares and H shares from top to bottom, and emphasize that he is optimistic about bank stocks related to the manufacturing industry chain and serving the real economy. He believes that such companies have stable operation, low fundamental risk, extremely low valuation and high growth. In the fourth quarter, while continuing to emphasize financial and real estate opportunities, Qiu Dongrong became the first of the four allocation directions before promoting such large cap value stocks to coal, energy and resource companies.
From the perspective of the top ten heavyweight stocks, the one-year holding period of Zhonggeng value quality managed by Qiu Dongrong will reduce the holding of China Everbright Bank Company Limited Co.Ltd(601818) H shares from 111 million shares to 103 million shares, and increase the position of Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) to the top ten heavyweight stocks. The latest position is nearly 60 million shares, ranking the fourth heavyweight stock. In addition, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) also entered the ranks of the top ten heavy positions of Zhonggeng value smart mix in the fourth quarter of last year, holding about 16.92 million shares, ranking fourth; Zhonggeng value pilot hybrid also increased its holdings of Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) more than 15 million shares, with the latest holding of 37.8215 million shares, raising its position from ninth to fourth.
Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) the position of Zhonggeng value smart hybrid increased by about 8.34 million shares compared with the third quarter, and the latest position was close to 24.46 million shares, accounting for the third largest heavy position from the eighth; In the Zhonggeng Small Cap Value Fund, Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) also increased its shareholding from 40.2 million shares to about 60.36 million shares, jumping from the fifth to the second largest heavy warehouse shares, with a market value accounting for 6.12%. Zhonggeng value pilot hybrid held Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) 61142600 shares in the third quarter, ranking the fourth largest heavy position stock, which remained unchanged in the fourth quarter. It is worth noting that the mixed net worth of Zhonggeng value pilot slightly lost the performance benchmark in the fourth quarter. Qiu Dongrong said in the quarterly report that in addition to the large pullback of the energy sector in a short time, the poor performance of individual stocks of holding banks also made a negative contribution to the relative performance of the fund. From the perspective of position adjustment direction, this did not affect its position increase of “regional bank stocks related to the manufacturing industry chain, serving the real economy and having unique competitive advantages”.
Another fund manager who has attracted much attention is Zhang Kun, the “first brother of public offering”. His action of increasing bank allocation in the third quarter has attracted widespread attention in the market, but in the fourth quarter, Zhang Kun turned to reduce the position of some bank stocks. Among them, e fund high-quality enterprises held about 16.8 million shares of China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and 43 million shares of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) in the third quarter. They were the eighth and ninth largest heavy positions of the fund respectively. In the fourth quarter of last year, the fund reduced its holdings of 10 million shares of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) and its market value decreased to the tenth place. E fund blue chip selection also reduced its position of Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) in the fourth quarter, and its shareholding decreased from more than 200 million shares to 188 million shares, still ranking 10th in position proportion.
In addition, although Xingquan Herun hybrid managed by Xie Zhiyu of Xingquan fund participated in the preferential placement of Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) convertible bonds in the fourth quarter, the shares of Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) fell out of the top ten heavy positions of the fund. In the third quarter of last year, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) ranked the fifth largest heavy position stock of the fund, with a position of 62.7234 million shares, accounting for 3.99% of the market value.
after the “good start” of bank stocks , what do institutions think of in 2022?
Since the third quarter of last year, the bank’s performance has continued to exceed expectations. As of January 23, more than a dozen listed banks have disclosed the performance express of 2021, of which more than 90% of the net profit attributable to the parent company has increased by more than 20%. At the same time, most banks have achieved the double improvement of asset quality of “reduction of non-performing rate + improvement of provision coverage”. With this support, the banking sector rose sharply in the secondary market, with an increase of more than 6% since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (down 3.22% in the same period). Except for the new Lanzhou bank, which rose by more than 40%, the increase of Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) was more than 15%, and the increase of Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and other seven banks was also more than 10%.
From the perspective of valuation, the net breaking rate of bank stocks has also decreased with the recovery of the market. The number of individual stocks with Pb (price to book ratio) less than twice has decreased from 36 at the end of last year to 30. Several institutions pointed out that the improvement of the macro environment and the adjustment of the business structure of banks have formed a strong support for the performance and valuation of most banks. At the same time, “steady growth” improves the economic prosperity, the risk resolution of individual real estate enterprises is promoted in an orderly manner, and the marginal financing environment of the industry is loose. Considering the good market of bank stocks at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, institutions are generally optimistic about the market of banks in the first quarter.
Monetary policy expectations also continued to affect the performance of bank stocks. After the central bank cut the reserve requirement by 0.5 percentage points and the one-year MLF interest rate by 10bp (basis points), the one-year LPR (quoted interest rate in the loan market) was reduced by 10bp on January 20, and the five-year LPR also decreased for the first time since April 2020. In this regard, some analysts believe that the net interest margin of banks will continue to be under pressure after the reduction of interest rate. According to Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) , the direct impact on the net interest margin of banks is about 8bp when the one-year LPR decreased by 5bp in December last year. However, considering that the housing mortgage loan will benefit from the reduction of interest rate and the “good start” pull, most institutions are optimistic about the credit demand of banks in the first quarter.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) bank analyst Wang Jian believes that compared with the negative impact on the net interest margin, the reduction of interest rate is more critical to the improvement of bank credit cost. On the one hand, reducing the loan interest rate can reduce the burden of borrowers and improve the quality of bank assets; On the other hand, monetary easing can promote economic growth, indirectly improve the quality of bank assets, and increase the demand for bank credit. Wang Jian said that the fluctuation of bank interest margin of more than 10bp per year has been a great change, but the reduction of credit cost caused by the improvement of asset quality far exceeds this.
Under the multiple positive conditions, foreign capital has greatly scrambled to raise financial stocks recently. Among the net purchases of 29.197 billion yuan of “smart capital” northward funds this week, the net purchases of the banking sector were close to 9.3 billion yuan, ranking first, of which only China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) received a net purchase of 4.773 billion yuan. Guosheng Securities said that with the addition and overweight of loose policies, the future demand of many banks may gradually improve. Another number of securities companies believe that the current undervalued level of the banking sector has fully reflected the market’s expectations of real estate credit risk exposure and macroeconomic downturn.
Yan Meizhi, head of China financial industry research at UBS, said recently that although the net interest margin of Bank Of China Limited(601988) industry in 2022 will continue to be under pressure, the pressure will be more moderate than that in 2021, and the performance growth rate will also fall after a strong rebound in 2021. It is comprehensively judged that bank stocks will be the first strong and then weak trend in 2022, and bank stocks are optimistic about the market in the first quarter under the defensive advantage. She also stressed that the valuation differentiation of bank stocks will continue, especially with the decline of interest rate center, the ROE (return on net assets) of large banks will continue to decline, and she is optimistic about small and medium-sized banks with retail advantages.
