A-share market investors often have a problem before the Spring Festival every year: holding shares or holding money for the holiday? Especially in the context of the adjustment of A-Shares in 2022, where investors go has attracted market attention.
From the historical data, in the five trading days before and after the Spring Festival in the past 10 years, the Shanghai index fell for three years respectively, and the rising probability is 70%. Some institutions believe that, whether from the perspective of macroeconomic and liquidity environment or the relative cost performance of current stock market valuation, if there are no extreme circumstances, the post holiday market is still worth looking forward to.
the rhythm of “high and low cutting” is obvious
The data show that from 2012 to 2021, in the five trading days before the Spring Festival holiday in the past 10 years, the Shanghai index fell only in 2014, 2018 and 2020, with a cumulative decline of 0.91%, 5.09% and 3.67%. The average increase in the first five trading days of the 10-year Spring Festival holiday was 0.96%.
In the five trading days after the Spring Festival holiday, the stock index fell in 2013, 2020 and 2021, with a decline of 4.89%, 3.38% and 2.49%. The average increase in the five trading days after the 10-year Spring Festival holiday was 0.2%.
After the Spring Festival holidays in 2020 and 2021, A-Shares fell significantly. The previous time was affected by the “black swan” factor of covid-19 epidemic. The decline was mainly caused by the sharp decline on the first day after the festival, and then A-Shares rebounded strongly; After the Spring Festival holiday in 2021, the industry leaders with large market value generally adjusted, resulting in index fluctuations, mainly due to the extreme “19 market” before the festival, and the valuation of leading stocks was rapidly raised in the short term. Market participants judged that after the Spring Festival holiday this year, similar disturbing factors in the market no longer exist.
From the perspective of market style, according to the statistics of Debang securities, the overall style rotates from 2010 to 2021. The cumulative yield in the four weeks before the Spring Festival is the best in the market value sector, with an average increase of 0.9%, while the small cap growth sector fell by 0.6% and the small cap value sector fell by 1.6%; During this period, there was a high-low cut in the market. The high P / E ratio sector fell 0.6% in the four weeks before the Spring Festival, and the low P / E ratio sector rose 0.6%. From the performance of the four weeks after the festival, the small cap growth sector rose 6.4%, while the large cap value sector rose 2.3%, the high P / E ratio sector rose 6.7%, and the low P / E ratio sector rose 3%.
the market after the festival can still be expected
In 2022, the A-share market started unexpectedly, and the three indexes fell into shock. Among them, the gem index has fallen by 8.67% this year. Many investors began to wonder, is there any market after the festival?
First of all, we can see that this wave of adjustment of A-Shares is mainly caused by the adjustment of high growth track stocks. At present, the price performance of track stocks after adjustment begins to appear. According to Yan Kaiwen, a strategic analyst at Huaxin securities, by comparing the current two styles represented by CITIC growth and CITIC stability index, the relative valuation quantile advantage of growth stocks has been highlighted.
Secondly, whether from the perspective of macroeconomic and liquidity environment, or from the relative cost performance of current stock market valuation, the post holiday market of A-Shares is still worth looking forward to. AI Xiongfeng, a strategic analyst, said that the market performed well in the spring of 2012, 2015 and 2019. These three years were in the stage of increasing pressure on economic adjustment, and some policies to boost the economy were issued at the end of the previous year, such as reducing reserve requirements and even interest rates. These characteristics are similar to the current market environment.
“A shares are at the end of adjustment. In the future, enterprise performance will not become the core contradiction restricting the short-term market trend, and policy will be the core driving factor.” AI Xiongfeng said.
Dongguan Securities believes that the capital side has successively released positive signals and accelerated the net inflow of funds to the north. It is expected that the market is expected to stabilize and rebound before the festival. It is suggested to hold shares for the holiday. In terms of industry selection, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that “undervalued value blue chip” varieties could be considered as the main allocation force: first, traditional infrastructure related, such as banking and building materials; Second, the real estate sector and its upstream and downstream industrial chain benefiting from the marginal improvement of real estate policy.
