With the disclosure of the fourth quarter report of public funds in 2021, the views of many top fund managers were made public.
Zhang Kun, the star fund manager of e fund, said that the current economy is facing downward pressure, but this is phased and remains optimistic about the future prospects. Zhang Kun stressed: “to make a good investment, it is more important to focus on the field rather than the scoreboard.” In the selection of individual stocks, Zhang Kun said that he would carefully examine the fundamentals of enterprises in the portfolio and choose enterprises with outstanding competitiveness and high long-term logical certainty for long-term holding. In his opinion, after the valuation digestion in 2021, the valuation of some high-quality enterprises has been attractive. In the dimension of 3 to 5 years, the performance growth rate of enterprises will be projected onto the growth of market value.
Over the past year, Zhang Kun has experienced a peak challenge, from “out of the circle” in early 2021 to being widely known, and then being questioned due to the sharp decline of the market. After a bumpy year, the performance of the funds under its management is weak. Taking the largest e fund blue chip selection fund he managed as an example, it fell by 9.9% in 2021, and e fund high-quality enterprise selection fell by 13.5%. Realistically speaking, such performance made it difficult for investors to be satisfied. Fortunately, at the market peak in the first quarter of last year, the purchase of the above-mentioned funds was limited in time.
From the change of Zhang Kun’s heavy position stocks, he has changed greatly in the past year, selling Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Corporation Limited(600161) , Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) and other companies. He has also sold Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) he once tried to expand his ability circle.
Objectively speaking, it is not easy for Zhang Kun, who has a management scale of more than 100 billion yuan. When planning the layout, we must consider the longer term, and pay more attention to the quality and future development direction of the enterprise. After buying, it is necessary to hold the probability for a long time. It is almost meaningless to make a price difference through trading. Perhaps this is also the deep meaning of Zhang Kun’s emphasis on long-term holding in his previous periodic reports since last year.
For investors, we also need to deeply understand the significance of long-term holding. Because for the investment itself, its fundamental income comes from the performance of listed companies, and the core is free cash flow, because the investment without performance support will eventually become passive water. When the scale of the products managed by fund managers is large and it is difficult to obtain the market price difference income, almost all of their long-term income comes from the rise of stock price caused by the continuous growth of enterprise performance. In terms of lengthening the cycle, the rise and fall of stock price is basically equal to the increase or decrease of performance, but during this period, market sentiment will affect its valuation level. In this sense, it is also very difficult to obtain high returns in the short term.
Zhang Kun constantly emphasizes long-term holding. Another implied meaning is to warn investors to reduce earnings expectations. In fact, from the performance of well-known Chinese and foreign investors, no matter how good the fund manager is, the law of “performance is the enemy of scale” has been tried almost repeatedly, and it is very important for investors to maintain reasonable income expectations.
Over the past year, the market has become more volatile. For investors, it is more necessary to look at the long-term development and deeply understand the significance of long-term investment.
