Recently, with the continuous adjustment of the new energy vehicle sector, Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) share price has ushered in a continuous rebound. The company's better than expected performance forecast for 2021 released on January 10 has become the key to the reversal of share price trend. Not only Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , with the performance forecast entering the intensive disclosure period, listed companies with recent performance exceeding expectations have been warmly sought after and become a bright color in the market.
According to the statistics of China Securities Journal, as of January 23, 213 listed companies exceeded market expectations among the 824 listed companies that have issued performance forecasts for 2021. Among them, high-profile industries such as new energy vehicles, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, coal and electronics have become the headquarters of listed companies whose performance forecasts exceed expectations. After achieving better than expected performance, many listed companies are expected to maintain the momentum of constant strength of the strong.
sought after by the market
Data show that as of January 23, 824 listed companies have issued performance forecasts for 2021. Among them, among the 489 listed companies that gave consistent market expectations, 213 exceeded the consistent market expectations based on the median of performance forecast.
Take Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) as an example, the performance forecast released by the company on the evening of January 17 shows that it is expected to achieve revenue of 4.74 billion yuan to 4.79 billion yuan in 2021, with a central value of 4.765 billion yuan, exceeding 1.04% compared with the consensus market expectation of 4.716 billion yuan; The forecast range of net profit attributable to the parent company was 780 million yuan - 840 million yuan, and the central performance was 810 million yuan, 7.7% higher than the consensus expectation of the market.
Among them, the performance forecast of many listed companies exceeded market expectations, which was due to the outstanding performance in the fourth quarter. Taking Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) as an example, the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to reach 2 billion yuan to 2.2 billion yuan in 2021, which is much higher than the consensus expectation of the market of 1.921 billion yuan. Among them, the fourth quarter alone contributed a net profit of 1.05 billion yuan to 1.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 175% - 227%.
It is worth noting that there is no inevitable relationship between performance exceeding market expectations and performance growth. Although many listed companies have made losses in advance, they still exceed market expectations. Take Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) as an example, although the company expects a loss of 381 million yuan to 465 million yuan in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter was 25 million yuan to 109 million yuan, which improved significantly and exceeded market expectations.
According to China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) statistics, the greater the growth rate of the overall annual report performance forecast exceeds the market expectation, the more prominent the market performance is during the disclosure period of the annual report performance forecast. Since 2016, the coincidence rate of the top 10 industries with "higher than expected" range and the top 10 industries with market performance has increased significantly, especially in 2019 and 2020, the coincidence rate reached 60% and 50% respectively.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) by constructing the super expected selected stock portfolio from the two dimensions of fundamentals and technology, it is found that the full warehouse annualized return of the super expected selected stock portfolio has reached 43.55% since 2010, and the annualized excess relative to the CSI 500 index has reached 39.18%. After considering the impact of positions and transaction costs, the annualized return of the portfolio reached 37.55%, which was 26.48% higher than that of the ordinary stock fund index.
Recently, more than expected stocks have also been warmly sought after by investors in the secondary market. Taking Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) as an example, the performance forecast disclosed by the company on the evening of January 17 shows that the revenue in 2021 is expected to be about 7.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 655 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52%, much higher than the market expectation. On January 18, the company's share price rose in response to the limit.
build high prosperity industries
According to statistics, high-profile industries such as new energy vehicles, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, coal and electronics have become the headquarters of listed companies with better than expected performance.
Taking new energy vehicles as an example, according to the data released by the China Automobile Association, the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market ushered in a major outbreak in 2021, with production and sales of 3.545 million and 3.521 million vehicles respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, and the market share reached 13.4%, 8 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. This production and sales data significantly exceeded the market expectation of 2 million vehicles in early 2021.
In this context, the performance of listed companies related to the new energy vehicle industry chain exceeded market expectations. For example, lithium hexafluorophosphate was in short supply in 2021. By the end of the year, the price in China had reached 565000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 413.6%. Driven by this, lithium hexafluorophosphate leader Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) is expected to realize a net profit of 1.23 billion yuan to 1.33 billion yuan in 2021, which is much higher than the market expectation.
Then take the coal industry as an example. In 2021, the prosperity of the coal industry continued to improve, and the coal market price continued to rise. According to the data, the average price of Datong q6000 thermal coal in 2021 was 876 yuan / ton, an increase of 98% year-on-year. The average price in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 1171 yuan / ton, an increase of 21% month on month.
Affected by this, Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) and other coal listed companies exceeded market expectations. Among them, the performance forecast released by Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) shows that the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent of 4.5 billion yuan to 5 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 444% to 505%, and the central performance is 4.75 billion yuan, 27.86% higher than the consensus expectation of 3.715 billion yuan.
Meanwhile, although the prosperity of many industries fluctuated in 2021, leading companies still achieved better than expected performance by actively responding to market changes. For example, the overall prosperity of the semiconductor display industry in 2021 was significantly higher than that in 2020, but the industry demand weakened in the second half of the year, and there was an obvious structural correction in the price of TV panel.
In this context, BOE actively complied with market changes in LCD panel products. Facing the structural adjustment of product prices in the industry, BOE actively adjusted its product portfolio based on the advantages of products, customer structure and technology. The proportion of TV panel capacity with large price decline decreased, and the proportion of it panel capacity with stable price continued to rise. Finally, the performance forecast in 2021 exceeded the market expectation.
is expected to continue to exceed expectations
After achieving better than expected performance, relevant industries and listed companies are expected to continue to maintain the momentum of constant strength in 2022.
Taking Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) as an example, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) pointed out that the company's high performance in the first half of 2022 is expected to exceed market expectations. "Maintain the judgment that the industry competition will slow down in 2022, and the leading enterprises will usher in a deterministic profit recovery. Considering the low base factor, it is expected that the company's performance in the first half of 2022 is expected to increase year-on-year, which will continue to catalyze the optimistic expectations of the market."
After most listed companies handed over the performance forecast that exceeded the expectation, the securities companies also improved their profit forecast accordingly to further optimistic about the company's future performance. Taking Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) as an example, after the company disclosed the better than expected performance forecast for 2021, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) raised the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be 524 million yuan, 874 million yuan and 1.067 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.97 yuan, 1.61 yuan and 1.97 yuan.
It is worth noting that after many listed companies have achieved better than expected performance, because their industry is still in the high-profile channel, there is still a great possibility of achieving better than expected performance in the future.
Take Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) as an example, as the supply of HPV vaccine in China continued to fall short of demand in 2021, the company's bivalent HPV vaccine continued to maintain a high boom in production and sales, and its revenue and profit showed a trend of rapid growth. Benefiting from this, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.85-2.05 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 173% - 203%, which is much higher than the market expectation.
On this basis, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) points out that there are about 381 million women aged 9-45 in China. At present, the penetration rate of HPV vaccination among school-age women in China is only about 7%. According to the penetration rate of 30% / 45% / 60%, China still needs 280 million / 450 million / 620 million HPV vaccines, which is far from reaching the peak. If Chinese male indications are approved in the future, there will be more space.
In addition, although the short-term prosperity of many industries has been suppressed, with the reversal of prosperity in the future, relevant listed companies are expected to achieve better than expected performance. For example, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that with the easing of the epidemic and the liberalization of travel control, China's and international demand in the aviation industry will rebound rapidly, while the supply growth rate may not be as fast as the demand growth rate. The difference between demand and supply growth will be superimposed with the increase of ticket prices, and the outlook of the aviation industry will rise.
