With the release of the fourth quarter report of the fund in 2021, the position adjustment ideas of fund managers emerge. After combing the four seasons report, the first financial reporter found that a group of fund managers represented by Li Xiaoxing, star fund manager of Yinhua Fund and Zhao Yi, star fund manager of Agricultural Bank of China Huili, have begun to reduce their positions in new energy.
“new energy is like the 2021 Baijiu and medicine” .
Zhao Yi a star fund manager who has long been optimistic about new energy, said in the fourth quarter report of its fund ABC new energy theme hybrid fund that the share prices of some new energy industry chain companies “have been ahead of the fundamentals”.
For the photovoltaic sector, Zhao Yi said: “the price of upstream silicon began to loosen and the price of other links began to fall. From the perspective of fundamentals, there continues to be a game between various links of the industry, considering that the stock price has been ahead of the fundamentals and the valuation has been very high, the cost performance is relatively poor. “
Zhao Yi said that new energy vehicles still belong to the sector with very high certainty and growth rate. The production scheduling of leading enterprises in the whole battery industry chain is still at a high level. With the continuous expansion of the production capacity of front-line enterprises, the production scheduling is still improving month on month in the first quarter. However, considering that in 2022, the production capacity of all links begins to be released one after another, and the balance between supply and demand will begin to be reversed one after another, For the enterprises transforming into new energy in 2021, they also face the problem of performance realization.
at the specific position adjustment level, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the new energy theme of ABC reduced its holdings of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) and other new energy stocks.
Similarly, the new energy sector shares are also held by Yinhua Fund star fund manager Li Xiaoxing, from its January 24th Yinhua Xinyi quarterly report, compared with the end of the three quarter, fourth quarter of 2021, Li Xiaoxing added Baijiu, pharmaceutical stocks, reduced the new energy sector.
The Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , which once appeared in the top ten heavy positions of Yinhua Xinyi in the third quarter, has faded out of the ranks of the top ten heavy positions in the fourth quarter.
For each industrial chain of new energy, Li Xiaoxing said in the four seasons that there will still be a lot of investment opportunities in photovoltaic, wind power, power grid equipment, energy storage and electric vehicles.
However, the investment opportunities in the above five segments have been fully explored in 2021, and some stock prices are even in front of the fundamentals. This increases the difficulty of investment in 2022. “In 2022, we should make more efforts in the selection of industrial chain links and the mining of individual stocks”.
Yu Hang, the manager of YONGYING growth pilot hybrid fund, said more directly: “the seemingly booming market of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industry actually contains no small crisis, because it will inevitably lead to a sharp increase in capital expenditure and a swarm of barbarians outside the door.”
Yu Hang said that through more fierce competition, reducing costs and promoting the substitution of old and new energy, “although the process is tragic, this is the only way for the development of new energy industry”.
Specifically, Yu Hang reduced its holdings of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) and other new energy stocks.
Sun haozhong, manager of Xincheng medium and small cap mixed fund, also reduced the allocation weight of new energy and semiconductor sectors in the fourth quarter. He said that due to the lack of financial report verification, frequent information on competition and game in the industry, strengthened supervision of high-frequency trading funds, style switching brought by the cashing of income at the end of the year and other factors, there was a phased correction in the new energy sector.
Zheng Zehong, the star fund manager of Huaxia Fund, once again warned investors of the risks of new energy in the four seasons report.
He said in the four seasons report of Huaxia energy innovation stock that although new energy is a good industry, the yield in the past three years is very high. Looking at the next three years, he personally believes that there is more room for yield.
However, the investment cycle is shortened, for example, half a year or a year, because static valuation is high, and participants are more likely to have a wave or run short of other indexes in the short run, just like the Baijiu and pharmaceutical industry in 2021.
Zheng Zehong suggested that investors “should reduce the expectation of short-term new energy yield”.
According to the data of Tonglian, from the closing price on January 21, the new energy index is currently at the 75% quantile in recent five years, and the valuation is relatively high.
In addition, on the evening of January 20, some funds managed by Liu Gesong, the star fund manager of GF, disclosed the fourth quarter report of 2021. From the perspective of position adjustment, gf’s small cap growth has reduced its stock position, including reducing its positions in leading new energy enterprises such as Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) .
Ruiyuan balanced value three-year holding hybrid securities investment fund managed by Zhao Feng reduced its holdings of new energy in advance in the fourth quarter of 2021 and cashed in part of its earnings. He said: “with the sharp rise of individual stocks in new energy related fields, the cost performance of relevant stocks has decreased, and we have cashed in some earnings appropriately.”
favorable policies
However, as the track of “thick slope and long snow” in the mouth of most fund managers, the state has recently issued a number of favorable policies.
On July 23, 2021, the guiding opinions on accelerating the development of new energy storage was issued. The document pointed out that by 2025, the transformation of new energy storage from the initial stage of commercialization to large-scale development will be realized. The new energy storage technology has made great progress in terms of high safety, low cost, high reliability and long life. The market environment and business model are basically mature, with an installed capacity of more than 30 million KW. By 2030, realize the comprehensive market-oriented development of new energy storage.
On August 11, 2021, the notice on encouraging renewable energy power generation enterprises to build or purchase peak shaving capacity to increase the scale of grid connection was issued. The document pointed out that for the scale beyond the guaranteed grid connection of power grid enterprises, the peak shaving capacity shall be built according to the linkage ratio of 15% of power at the initial stage (more than 4 hours, the same below), and the priority of grid connection shall be built according to the linkage ratio of more than 20%.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) analyst Zeng duohong estimated that regions with electricity price difference of more than 70 cents have strong energy storage economy. She believes that the follow-up energy storage independent electricity price system and the cost of new energy storage transmission and distribution on the grid side will be gradually introduced, and the energy storage policy will be gradually improved.
Zeng duohong predicted that by 2025, China’s new energy storage installed capacity will reach 34.4gw/86.2gwh, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be 84%; By 2030, China’s new energy storage installed capacity will reach 175.6gw/534.4gwh, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2030 will be 61%.
Wang Peng, general manager of TEDA Manulife investment department, said that the booming industry has never brought a trend collapse of stock price simply because of high valuation. The core of determining the stock price is the change of fundamental data. According to his observation:
At present, the production scheduling and wholesale and retail data of new energy vehicles continue to be strong, with an increase of 50% in 2022. Although the continued rise of lithium price leads to the market’s concern about profitability, on the other hand, the price for C-end users is easy to be transmitted. Except for lithium, the prices of other raw materials are falling. He judged that it has little impact on the profitability of the battery link.
In the photovoltaic field, the decline of silicon material price drives the component operating rate to rise significantly. After a year of game, the industry is moving to the right. There is a high probability that the silicon material output will increase by 40% in 2022.
Wang Peng predicts that the growth rate of energy storage market may exceed 100% in 2022. The core of investment is to find companies with purer and more core competitiveness.
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