Today (January 24), the three major stock indexes of A-Shares opened low. There was a sharp pull at the beginning of the market, and then gradually fell back. Near noon, the stock index stabilized and rose again, and the stock index was in the stage of repeated shocks. From the disk point of view, the rise and fall of the industry and concept sectors are different, the light index and heavy stock market reappear, the lithium extraction from Salt Lake, power equipment, digital currency, scenic spots and tourism sectors perform prominently, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) pointed out that the landing of interest rate cut is the first clear signal of steady growth. The continuous long going north also indicates that the risk appetite has begun to improve, and the impact of the rapid upward rise of US bond yield has been gradually released. Therefore, we believe that the layout is at the right time.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[Topic 1] power exchange concept
Guosheng securities mentioned that ten departments including the national development and Reform Commission issued the implementation opinions on further improving the service guarantee capacity of electric vehicle charging infrastructure. This document clearly mentioned that we should promote the unification of power exchange standards, support the exploration of power exchange station layout and shared power exchange mode, and the power exchange mode is expected to enter the fast lane of development. The power change mode has the advantages of short charging time, prolonging battery life, reducing the impact on the power grid and reducing the user’s initial purchase cost. From the perspective of user experience, it is closest to the traditional fuel vehicle refueling mode, which can effectively solve the problems of long charging time and power anxiety, and is a good supplement to the energy supplement form. With the continuous promotion of policies, industry leaders such as main engine manufacturers, battery manufacturers and traditional energy giants take the lead in entering the Bureau. In the medium and long term, the scale of power exchange market is at the level of 100 billion, and there is a large growth space.
In addition, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) pointed out that the global prosperity of new energy vehicles continues to rise, Chinese battery and material enterprises accelerate the introduction into the global supply chain, the supply and demand of some links are expected to improve, the competition pattern of cells, diaphragms and other links is better, and new technologies promote the upgrading of the industrial chain. The photovoltaic industry chain has entered the price reduction channel, and the demand is expected to be fully released. The asset light subdivision direction is preferred to meet the challenge of capacity cycle, and the industrialization of hjt and TOPCON batteries is promoted in an all-round way; The inflection point of wind power boom is advanced, the demand for offshore wind power may be accelerated, and the price of bulk raw materials is loose, which is expected to thicken the profits of the midstream manufacturing industry. In terms of power equipment, the increase of the installed proportion of new energy requires accelerating the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body. The power grid investment structure is expected to further tilt to the fields of UHV, intelligence and power distribution, and the core supply enterprises are expected to benefit significantly.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) said that the correction of green power sector in the beginning of the year was mainly due to short-term emotional impact, and the long-term opportunities of green power under the main line of carbon neutralization remained unchanged. Previously, the policy set the tone of steady growth, causing the market to worry about the policy shift. In fact, the continuous promotion of scenery investment is in line with the tone of steady growth, and the installed capacity of coal-fired power will also ensure the consumption of green power. In 2022, the floating range of electricity price will be increased to 20% and under the tight balance pattern of power supply, the electricity price center is expected to move up in 2022, the profit of thermal power will be repaired, and the green power transaction premium will rise. []
[Theme 2] scenic spots and tourism
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) mentioned that the digital transformation of the cultural tourism industry has accelerated, and iterative innovation has been reborn. The baptism of the epidemic forced the text travel industry to accelerate the digital transformation, generate new formats in combination with the new online economy, and develop immersive, one-stop and personalized tourism products. Rural tourism and ice and snow tourism are different from traditional tourism forms. They have a broad market and great development potential, and may become a new increment of the tourism industry in the future. In order to cope with the consumption change after the epidemic, cultural and tourism products need to carry out effective iterative innovation, improve service quality, accumulate a lot and wait for the complete recovery of the cultural and tourism industry.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) pointed out that for the hotel industry, we continue to be optimistic about the optimization of supply pattern and leading growth. Since this year, although several rounds of epidemics have led to the recovery rhythm of the industry lower than expected, the leading enterprises continue to open stores rapidly, the single hotels continue to be cleared, and the logic of supply pattern optimization continues to be verified. Looking forward to 2022, China’s hotel chain rate and industry concentration still have great room for improvement compared with developed countries. We continue to be optimistic about the growth brought by the opening of leading stores against the trend and the upgrading of medium and high-end. The improvement of the epidemic in Europe is also expected to reduce the drag of overseas business on performance.
In addition, for tourism and scenic spots, the recovery trend remains unchanged, or there are opportunities for reversal. With several rounds of epidemic disturbance since June, the recovery progress of China’s tourism has shown a trend of high before and low after. Inter provincial travel and long-distance travel are still subject to many restrictions of epidemic prevention policies, and the performance of sector companies is generally under pressure. Looking forward to 2022, even if the demand side fluctuation is still inevitable, we still maintain confidence in the recovery trend. At the same time, the change of epidemic prevention policy is expected to ferment, which is also expected to give birth to the reversal opportunity of the sector market ahead of the fundamentals.
Dongguan Securities said that in the short term, the industry will still be disturbed by the scattered epidemic, but China’s strict prevention attitude towards covid-19 virus can effectively control the spread of the virus. There is no need to be too pessimistic about covid-19 virus and its variants. With the improvement of covid-19 vaccination and the development of therapeutic drugs, the trend of covid-19 influenza will not change, The leisure service industry is expected to recover slowly in 2022. In the long run, the epidemic forced the industry to reshuffle and reduce supply. Under the action of demand recovery after the epidemic was basically controlled, the prosperity of the industry is expected to accelerate. []
[Theme 3] digital currency
Guoyuan Securities Company Limited(000728) pointed out that the digital economy development plan of the 14th five year plan was issued, and the digital infrastructure is expected to exceed expectations. According to the development plan, it is expected that by 2025, China’s digital economy will move towards a period of comprehensive expansion, and the added value of core industries of digital economy will account for 10% of GDP. The plan defines the main indicators of digital economy development: by 2025, the number of IPv6 active users will reach 800 million; The number of Gigabit broadband users has reached 60 million; The scale of software and information technology services reached 14 trillion yuan; The application penetration rate of industrial Internet platform has reached 45%; The national online retail sales reached 17 trillion yuan; The scale of e-commerce transactions reached 46 trillion yuan; The number of real name users of online government services has reached 800 million.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that after the promotion of the Winter Olympic Games, the digital RMB will be further familiar to the market, and its industrial chain enterprises and traditional banking industry will benefit from it. On the one hand, digital RMB hardware equipment manufacturers will benefit from the market opportunities brought by digital RMB Hard Wallet, while software developers will benefit from the business growth brought by the upgrading of banking systems outside China. On the other hand, the cross-border application of digital RMB will benefit the traditional banking business through “spillover effect”, with retail payment, foreign currency exchange and cross-border remittance bearing the brunt.
Kaiyuan securities mentioned that on January 4, the digital RMB (pilot version) app was officially launched, and 49 merchants were launched, involving shopping, travel, life, tourism and five other categories. According to the white paper on the research and development progress of China’s digital RMB, digital RMB adopts centralized management and two-tier operation. The central bank is responsible for issuance and life cycle management, and commercial banks and other institutions are responsible for exchange and circulation services.
At present, the operating entities include nine banks including China, agriculture, industry, construction, transportation, postal savings, China Merchants, online merchants and Weizhong. Other small and medium-sized banks and institutions will also provide digital RMB services. Therefore, large state-owned banks, joint-stock banks and small and medium-sized banks will generate relevant system development, testing, operation and maintenance requirements, and bank it, security encryption, hardware equipment and other related companies are expected to benefit. []
[theme 4] lithium extraction from Salt Lake
Kaiyuan Securities said that due to the contradiction between supply and demand, lithium prices have continued to rise since July 2021. Up to now, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 340000-350000 yuan / ton, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 320000-33000 yuan / ton, and some bidding sales prices are 355000-365000 yuan / ton; The quotation of lithium hydroxide is about 260000-300000 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has continued to rise. On the one hand, it is affected by the limited supply of natural gas in the western region. On the other hand, the low temperature in winter affects the lithium extraction capacity of salt lakes. It is expected that the contradiction between supply and demand will be concentrated in Q1 in 2022, and the contradiction between supply and demand is expected to be alleviated by the end of Q1 in 2022. Lithium prices are expected to remain high throughout 2022.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that large lithium salt plants have entered the maintenance period one after another, and the supply is tight, and the catalyst price is expected to rise. At present, traders have basically completed the preparation before the festival, and the market trading volume has decreased near the Spring Festival. It is expected that the high lithium price will maintain stable operation. It is suggested to focus on: the subject of cobalt industry integration layout Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) ; Leading enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Related subjects of salt lake lithium: Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) ; Lithium mica related subject matter: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Jiangdian special machine; Spodumene related subject matter: Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) .
Cinda Securities pointed out that under the background of the “double carbon” goal, it attaches importance to the historic investment opportunities of new energy and new materials, and focuses on new energy metals with strong demand and weak supply pattern (lithium cobalt nickel rare earth) and new metal materials benefiting from industrial upgrading and domestic substitution. []
