Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Caixin Securities: four main lines to find investment opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to the lithium extraction sector of Salt Lake
It is suggested to look for investment opportunities from the following four main lines: 1. Degradable materials. Degradable materials are the focus of China’s policy. At present, PLA and PBAT materials are the most mature and may be popularized on a large scale. It is suggested to pay attention to Henan Jindan Lactic Acid Technology Co.Ltd(300829) and Cofco Biotechnology Co.Ltd(000930) with PLA lactide core technology, Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) with PBAT integrated industrial chain, and Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.Ltd(603650) with BASF PBAT core patent.
2. Semiconductor material sector. The localization of semiconductor materials is the general trend. It is suggested to pay attention to the high-quality companies in the upstream semiconductor material segment, including the segment head enterprises Jiangsu Nata Opto-Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300346) , Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) , Suzhou Jinhong Gas Co.Ltd(688106) in the electronic special gas field; Leading companies of wet electronic chemicals Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co.Ltd(603078) etc.
3. New energy lithium battery sector. With the recovery of the proportion of lithium iron phosphate installed back, the demand for phosphoric acid of upstream raw materials will rise rapidly. It is suggested to pay attention to phosphorus chemical related enterprises, such as Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) .
4. Salt lake lithium extraction sector. It is estimated that the mainstream technologies for extracting lithium from salt lakes in China in the future are adsorption method, membrane method and extraction method. From the current time point, the adsorption method of Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi’An(300487) has been used in zangge and Jintai with good effect, and Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi’An(300487) is recommended. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Jiuwu Hi-Tech Co.Ltd(300631) and Suntar Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(688101) for membrane method and Zhejiang Xinhua Chemical Co.Ltd(603867) for extraction method. []
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) : China should raise the self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources to a more important strategic position
The spot auction mode of concentrate has impacted the current long order pricing mechanism, and the integration trend of lithium industry chain is becoming more and more obvious. In 2021, the spot lithium concentrate in Australia was successfully sold through the bidding auction mode, the anchoring effect of the bidding price has been fully revealed, and the bargaining power of the mine has been significantly improved. The successful implementation of the auction mode and the high premium space relative to the long order may trigger the follow-up new mines to follow suit, driving the decline of the proportion of the long-term association or the adjustment of the pricing formula, which may have a far-reaching impact on the future pricing mechanism of the industry. The profit margin of lithium salt processing in China is facing further compression, and it is more difficult to obtain the underwriting right at low cost.
From the perspective of industrial chain, whether it is the extension of processing / battery enterprises to the resource end, the self built processing capacity of mines or the cooperation with downstream enterprises to build factories, all parties in the industry try to create the integration and coordination of their own businesses, so as to achieve the purpose of grabbing excess profits and increasing pricing power.
European and American countries have obvious resource advantages and broad terminal automobile market, and strive to improve processing capacity and try to build their own supply chain closed loop. The previous cooperation mode of “Australian mining + Chinese processing plant” may face challenges. Considering geopolitics, industrial upgrading and other factors, China should raise the self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources to a more important strategic position; For China’s lithium industry, enterprises with good resource endowment, high guarantee rate and strong certainty of performance release will receive higher valuation premium. Related companies: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) . []
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : the market trading volume has decreased near the Spring Festival. It is expected that the high lithium price will maintain stability
Large lithium salt plants have entered the maintenance period one after another, and the supply is tight, and the catalyst price is expected to rise. At present, traders have basically completed the preparation before the festival, and the market trading volume has decreased near the Spring Festival. It is expected that the high lithium price will maintain stable operation. It is suggested to focus on: the subject of cobalt industry integration layout Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) ; Leading enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Related subjects of salt lake lithium: Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) ; Lithium mica related subject matter: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Jiangdian special machine; Spodumene related subject matter: Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) . []
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) : the fundamentals of basic metals have reversed, and the metal raw material industry will usher in a new round of market
With the Beijing Winter Olympics approaching, the production of some alumina enterprises in Shandong is limited and the environmental protection control is becoming stricter. It is expected to stimulate the alumina price to a certain extent. At the same time, some downstream processing enterprises gradually enter the state of Spring Festival holiday, the demand is sluggish, and the inventory is expected to continue to rise. At present, relevant policies are being deployed around steady growth, and the issuance of special bonds has accelerated. At the regular policy briefing of the State Council on special bond management, Xu Hongcai said, “Considering the great pressure of steady growth in the first quarter of next year, the Ministry of finance has recently issued some new special bond quotas in advance, requiring all localities to issue and use them early in the first quarter of next year. The issuance of special bonds next year should grasp three words: early, accurate and fast”. The steady growth measures of local governments are expected to accelerate the implementation, the fundamentals of basic metals will reverse, and the metal raw material industry will usher in a new round of market. []
open source Securities: focus on the battery plant with lithium resources laid out in advance and expected to supply lithium carbonate by 2022
Due to the contradiction between supply and demand, lithium prices have continued to rise since July 2021. Up to now, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 340000-350000 yuan / ton, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 320000-33000 yuan / ton, and some bidding sales prices are 355000-365000 yuan / ton; The quotation of lithium hydroxide is about 260000-300000 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has continued to rise. On the one hand, it is affected by the limited supply of natural gas in the western region. On the other hand, the low temperature in winter affects the lithium extraction capacity of salt lakes. It is expected that the contradiction between supply and demand will be concentrated in Q1 in 2022, and the contradiction between supply and demand is expected to be alleviated by the end of Q1 in 2022. Lithium prices are expected to remain high throughout 2022.
Supply side: in 2022, we should focus on the completion of Salt Lake and mineral projects. Now it is expected that the production capacity of 2022q4 will be gradually released, and the annual lithium supply is 760000-800000 tons. The supply side is subject to the long release cycle of new lithium salt capacity (2-3 years) and the division of the world’s most important high-quality resources in the last round. Most of the lithium resources recently acquired by lithium companies or battery factories are original mines, and there is some uncertainty in the investment and construction output.
Demand side: however, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will increase rapidly in the next few years, and the demand may exceed expectations. We predict that the global lithium battery shipment is expected to reach 1300-1500 GWH in 2024. Measured by 700-800 tons of lithium carbonate consumed by a single GWH, the demand for lithium carbonate is expected to exceed 1 million tons in 2024 and 1.5 million tons in 2025 (1700-2000 GWH shipment of lithium batteries).
It is recommended to focus on the battery plants with lithium resources laid out in advance and expected to supply lithium carbonate by 2022: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , etc. In addition, after the high price of Q1 lithium carbonate in 2022, it is good for core growth and post cycle targets: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) .
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Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) : the general direction of the medium and long-term three-year boom upward cycle of upstream raw materials of new energy will not change
For base metals, China’s economic work in 2022 will be “stable”, which will support the price of base metals to a certain extent. However, from the global dimension, 1) changes in the structure of overseas economic demand before, during and after the epidemic, and 2) the global liquidity taper trend remains unchanged, and the base metal has a downward trend or has not been fundamentally changed.
For the upstream raw materials of new energy, such as lithium cobalt rare earth copper foil, aluminum foil and magnetic materials, the short-term prosperity is still strong, and the general direction of the medium and long-term three-year prosperity upward cycle will not change. The industrial prosperity is the most clear and firmly optimistic.
Core targets: 1) new energy vehicle industry chain: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) , Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) , Jiangsu Dingsheng New Material Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603876) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) . 2) Base metal: Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) etc. 3) Precious metals: Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) etc. []
Cinda Securities: pay attention to the historic investment opportunities of new energy and new materials, and focus on lithium cobalt nickel rare earth
In the context of the “double carbon” goal, pay attention to the historic investment opportunities of new energy and new materials, and focus on new energy metals with strong demand and weak supply pattern (lithium cobalt nickel rare earth) and new metal materials benefiting from industrial upgrading and domestic substitution. Lithium suggests paying attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , etc; It is suggested to pay attention to Guangdong Haomei New Materials Co.Ltd(002988) , Henan Liliang Diamond Co.Ltd(301071) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) , Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) , Ningbo Boway Alloy Material Co.Ltd(601137) , Anhui Truchum Advanced Materials And Technology Co.Ltd(002171) etc. for new materials; Titanium suggests paying attention to Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Sichuan Anning Iron And Titanium Co.Ltd(002978) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , Sino-Platinum Metals Co.Ltd(600459) etc. for precious metals; It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) etc. for industrial metals. []
Capital Securities: considering the impact of winter Salt Lake maintenance and the epidemic in South Africa, the short-term tight supply pattern of lithium and cobalt may be difficult to change
Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other departments issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of raw material industry, proposing that by 2025, the production capacity of key raw materials and bulk products such as crude steel and cement will only be reduced but not increased, and the capacity utilization rate will remain at a reasonable level. At the same time, it is proposed that the carbon emission of electrolytic aluminum will be reduced by 5%. We believe that the proposal of the document once again imposes strict constraints on the future total production capacity of some bulk commodities. At the same time, the carbon emission reduction target of electrolytic aluminum is good for the recycled aluminum industry. We recommend paying attention to Ye Chiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd(601388) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) .
In addition, considering the impact of Salt Lake maintenance in winter and the epidemic in South Africa, the short-term tight supply pattern of lithium and cobalt may be difficult to change. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) and Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) . []
