Today (January 24), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock rebound pattern as a whole. After opening low in the morning, the three major A-share indexes gradually fluctuated upward. Although there were signs of decline in the afternoon, the three major indexes finally closed red and rose slightly.
In this regard, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) pointed out that the landing of interest rate reduction is the first clear signal of steady growth. The continuous long going north also indicates that risk appetite has begun to improve, and the impact of the rapid upward rise of US bond yields has been gradually released. Therefore, we believe that the layout is at the right time.
At the same time, the agency mentioned that, first of all, the past resumption experience shows that liquidity support is an important condition for the growth style to enter the valuation stage. After this round of adjustment, the growth style is gradually in place and will enter the valuation stage; Secondly, benefiting from the steady growth of infrastructure, real estate and power grid related construction; Third, pay attention to the opportunities of securities companies under the spring market; Fourth, the main line of consumer price rise with strong certainty.
sector:
I. new energy vehicles
Dongguan Securities said that from the perspective of the general trend, the chip supply continues to improve, the overall auto market is expected to achieve steady growth in 2022, the trend of replenishing inventory will continue, and the demand of parts and components will continue to repair. This week, favorable policies for new energy vehicles appeared frequently. The national development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the implementation plan for promoting green consumption and the implementation opinions on further improving the service guarantee capacity of electric vehicle charging infrastructure to continue to encourage and support the development of new energy vehicles. The new energy vehicle market is expected to maintain a high growth momentum in 2022, and the fuel cell vehicle industry is expected to accelerate its development.
Bohai Securities pointed out that in the future, China's intelligent electric vehicle market will present a diversified competition pattern. With the subsequent significant increase in China's intelligent vehicle supply (a number of intelligent new models are expected to appear at this year's Beijing auto show), the industrial development shows an accelerated trend. It is suggested to pay attention to two main lines: 1) thematic opportunities in Huawei's automobile industry chain, such as Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) and Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) ; 2) The demand for cameras, millimeter wave radar, lidar and other sensors will continue to increase, and the penetration rate of intelligent lights / intelligent cockpit / air suspension will continue to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) .
In addition, Huajin securities mentioned that the prices of a series of new energy vehicles, including Byd Company Limited(002594) , have increased one after another, indicating that the current terminal demand for new energy vehicles is booming, the impact of the price rise of upstream raw materials and the decline of subsidies is relatively smooth to the downstream demand, and the new energy vehicle industry is still in a high boom stage. We mainly recommend three main lines: (1) independent brand leaders with strong new product cycle: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Byd Company Limited(002594) . (2) Parts enterprises closely related to the electric intelligent industrial chain and with high growth certainty: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Guangdong Senssun Weighing Apparatus Group Ltd(002870) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) . (3) Heavy truck enterprises with increasing market share and expected to usher in a performance inflection point: Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) .
II. Real estate development
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that although the current situation of sales cooling, financing control and capital supervision is difficult to change in the short term, and the painful period of the industry will continue, the policy positive signal is obvious. After a certain period of transmission, the liquidity at both ends of supply and demand is expected to be marginally loose. In the post crisis era, three main investment lines deserve attention. Main line 1: industry reform after the painful period; Main line 2: long term business is paid more attention; Main line 3: revaluation of high-quality real estate enterprises.
At the current time point, large and medium-sized real estate enterprises with stable operation and healthy finance can not only seize the opportunity of land market to repair the income statement, but also obtain the recognition of financial institutions to ensure financing, which have significant comparative advantages and will fully benefit from the current downward cycle of the industry. In January, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) were recommended.
Galaxy Securities said that in the short-term dimension, the warmer policies promoted the valuation of the real estate sector. At present, it is in the combination of "bottom of fundamentals" + "bottom of policy", and the policy is gradually transitioning from the credit side to the demand side. The key factors that previously suppressed the valuation have been mitigated. The current characteristics of "undervalued value, low position and high dividend" of the sector have sufficient margin of safety and flexibility, and the first quarter of this year is the best window period for allocation. In the medium and long term, under the expectation of increased concentration and stable profits, the "three good real estate enterprises" with excellent management, smooth financing and diversified development will enjoy a higher valuation premium.
In addition, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that in 2022, the industry policy will focus on "stability" and adhere to the main tone of "housing, housing and non speculation". Under the guarantee of marginal easing of monetary policy and "guaranteed delivery of housing", the industry sales will generally show a stable downward trend; The shortage of enterprise funds may be alleviated, the industry concentration will continue to increase, and the leading market share of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises is expected to continue to rise; The valuation of leading enterprises will continue to be repaired, driving the recovery of industry valuation as a whole.
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