Every January, A-Shares always have a thunder night. The climax of this year will probably occur next week.
According to the rules of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, January 31 is the deadline for GEM companies and other companies with significant performance fluctuations to release the performance forecast of 2021. The performance forecasts of these companies will be intensively released next week, and next Friday night may be another crazy thunder night.
The explosion has begun. Yesterday, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co.Ltd(600026) , Huadian Energy Company Limited(600726) , Zhejiang Unifull Industrial Fibre Co.Ltd(002427) , Raisecom Technology Co.Ltd(603803) exploded one after another, resulting in a loss of 13-13.8 billion yuan, 4.92-5.12 billion yuan, 3 billion yuan, 1.15-1.55 billion yuan and 820-850 million yuan respectively. Among them, Huadian Energy Company Limited(600726) may be warned of delisting risk, and the other four companies said they planned to withdraw large asset impairment.
According to the data, up to now, 814 A-share listed companies have disclosed the performance forecast for 2021, of which 19 have a lower limit loss of forecast net profit of more than 500 million yuan, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) has become the latest "king of forecast loss". Judging from the situation of blasting mine company, goodwill impairment or asset impairment is one of the important factors.
goodwill impairment: say big, say small, magic is not
Goodwill impairment is the focus of annual reports of A-share companies in recent years, and has gradually changed from "black swan" to normalization. Recently, the performance forecasts of Zjbc Information Technology Co.Ltd(000889) , Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) and other companies have triggered the tide of goodwill impairment in 2022.
On the evening of January 20, Zjbc Information Technology Co.Ltd(000889) replied to the letter of concern of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, saying that due to the loss of control of the wholly-owned subsidiary Jiahua information and the company no longer included it in the scope of consolidated statements, the company plans to withdraw an asset impairment provision of RMB 1.480 billion for the balance of long-term equity investment of Jiahua information and confirm an investment loss of RMB 287 million, so there is no financial "big bath".
On the evening of January 18, Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit loss in 2021 will be 430 million yuan to 645 million yuan, the provision for bad debts and inventory falling price for the whole year is expected to be about 280 million yuan to 350 million yuan, and the provision for goodwill impairment in the current period is expected to be 180 million yuan to 270 million yuan.
On the evening of January 14, Shanghai Shyndec Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600420) announced that the company planned to make provision for impairment of goodwill related to Sinopharm Xinyi, a holding subsidiary, and Sinopharm Jinshi, a wholly-owned subsidiary. A total of 132 million yuan of provision for impairment of goodwill was proposed this time.
According to the data, the scale of goodwill of A-share listed companies reached 1.31 trillion yuan in 2017. Although M & a continued to decline in 2019 and 2020, the scale of goodwill remained above trillion yuan. By the end of the third quarter of 2021, the total goodwill of A-share listed companies was 1.26 trillion yuan, of which 15 companies had a goodwill scale of more than 10 billion yuan.
For listed companies, the proportion of goodwill in net assets is too high, which may be more dangerous. By the end of the third quarter of 2021, there were 48 listed companies with goodwill accounting for more than 60% of net assets, of which 24 had goodwill accounting for more than 100%.
Note: the above data are only financial signs and are for reference only
Some analysts pointed out that although the pressure of A-share goodwill impairment has been relieved in recent two years, there is still high goodwill to be further digested. We should be alert to the risk that the performance of some listed companies will explode and the impairment of goodwill will attack again.
There are two types of companies with high risk of mine explosion that need to be avoided: first, there are many targets whose performance commitments have expired, especially cases where the commitment amount accounts for a large proportion of the net profit of listed companies; Second, at present, the scale of goodwill accounts for a high proportion of net assets.
asset impairment: inventory and accounts receivable. If you say no
Asset impairment is another thunder concentration zone in the annual reports of A-share companies in recent years.
Typical representatives of this category are Zoneco Group Co.Ltd(002069) and young eagle farming and animal husbandry in the 2018 annual report. One is "scallops running away" and the other is "pigs starved to death". Now, another pig raising enterprise Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) has withdrawn impairment provision of about 2.5 billion yuan; As for Zoneco Group Co.Ltd(002069) , a plot similar to "scallop running away" is staged again.
On the evening of January 21, the leading pig stock Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) announced that the company expected a net loss of 13 billion yuan to 13.8 billion yuan in 2021, and preliminarily made an impairment provision of about 2.5 billion yuan for the current consumable biological assets and productive biological assets. On the same night, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co.Ltd(600026) , Zhejiang Unifull Industrial Fibre Co.Ltd(002427) , Raisecom Technology Co.Ltd(603803) also issued advance loss announcements respectively, and it is proposed to withdraw large asset impairment.
On the evening of January 20, Zoneco Group Co.Ltd(002069) announced the performance forecast. It is expected to achieve a net profit of 6 million yuan to 9 million yuan in 2021, and a net profit of - 80 million yuan to - 120 million yuan after deducting non recurring profits and losses. It is estimated that the provision for falling price of various inventories will be 33.6117 million yuan in 2021, including 3.3499 million yuan of inventory goods and 28.7044 million yuan of consumable biological assets.
The risk of asset impairment of listed companies mainly focuses on inventory and accounts receivable.
According to the data, by the end of the third quarter of 2021, 417 listed companies had accounts receivable and notes accounting for more than 100% of operating revenue. Among them, Chunghsin Technology Group Co.Ltd(603996) , Jinzhou Cihang Group Co.Ltd(000587) , Kelin Environmental Protection Equipment Inc(002499) , Chalkis Health Industry Co.Ltd(000972) , Beijing Honggao Creative Architectural Design Co.Ltd(002504) , Shandong Yabo Technology Co.Ltd(002323) , Huaxun Fangzhou Co.Ltd(000687) , Boomsense Technology Co.Ltd(300312) , Bluedon Information Security Technologies Co.Ltd(300297) accounted for more than 10 times.
The continuous increase of enterprise accounts receivable, on the one hand, leads to the shortage of working capital, forcing enterprises to borrow money for operation, on the other hand, it may also become an important means for some companies to whitewash or even fake their finances.
Note: the above data are only financial signs and are for reference only
According to the data, by the end of the third quarter of 2021, after excluding real estate, construction and financial companies, 237 companies had inventories accounting for more than 100% of their revenue.
Among them, 9 companies accounted for more than 10 times, namely Hna Innovation Co.Ltd(600555) , Jilin Zixin Pharmaceutical Industrial Co.Ltd(002118) , Chalkis Health Industry Co.Ltd(000972) , Shanghai Tianchen Co.Ltd(600620) , Guangdong Mingzhu Group Co.Ltd(600382) , Fujian Jinsen Forestry Co.Ltd(002679) , Shanghai Huitong Energy Co.Ltd(600605) , Jinzhou Cihang Group Co.Ltd(000587) , Citic Guoan Wine Co.Ltd(600084) . To some extent, even if these enterprises no longer produce, it will take 10 years to digest inventory.
Note: the above data are only financial signs and are for reference only
The night of thunder is coming. Please take care!
