The "policy bottom" has been made clear, the "emotional bottom" is coming, and the "market bottom" is gradually approaching. It is suggested to continue to focus on the "two low" layout of blue chips to meet the starting point of the market in the first half of the year. First of all, the data show that the time point of the greatest downward pressure on the economy has passed, but the dependence on policies is still strong. The local "two sessions" show that there is an obvious trend of stabilizing the economy with investment, and after the monetary force exceeds expectations, the policies of other ministries and local governments are forming a joint force, and the "policy bottom" has been clear. Secondly, the emotional catharsis induced by the collapse of high-level groups is coming to an end. The short-term adjustment of the market deviates from both the trend of monetary easing and the fundamental trend of policy support. The differentiation of internal and external capital behavior is also evidence that the "emotional bottom" is coming. Finally, with the continuous improvement of the consensus on the main line of stable growth and the end of emotional catharsis, it is expected that market funds will resume inflow and the "market bottom" is gradually approaching. It is suggested to stick to the main line of "stable growth" and continue to layout high-quality blue chips around the "two low positions" to meet the starting point of the market in the first half of the year has been made clear. The monetary initiative exceeds
expectations, and other relay policies are forming a joint force
1) the expected year-end data show that the time point of the greatest downward pressure on the economy has passed. first of all, the economic data at the end of 2021 are generally in line with expectations. The annual GDP is 8.1% year-on-year and the two-year compound growth rate is 5.1%. At the same time, in the medium term, there are still triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations. Secondly, the time point of the greatest marginal economic pressure has passed, the average growth rate of infrastructure investment in a single month and two years has rebounded by nearly 5.0 PCTs, and manufacturing investment and export have also remained in a high boom range. Thirdly, the current round of imported epidemic situation has tended to improve, the peak diagnosis in the main epidemic areas has passed, and the daily increasing diagnosis in the country has dropped significantly. In the future, there will be more experience in the control of the import of new strains, and the negative disturbance of the epidemic situation and epidemic prevention on consumption is expected to ease rapidly after April. At the same time, the market's anxiety about fundamentals is mainly reflected in the decline of real estate investment and lower consumption than expected. The repair and rebalancing of economic expectations are still highly dependent on policies.
2) after the monetary policy is stronger than expected, other relay policies are forming a joint force. on January 17 and 20, the central bank lowered MLF, SLF, 7-day reverse repo and LPR interest rates respectively, comprehensively reducing interest rates further released the signal of "wide currency", and the time and amplitude exceeded market expectations, reflecting the determination to stabilize growth. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate will remain stable, and external changes such as the loose exit of the Federal Reserve will not restrict the "me dominated" Chinese policy style. According to the prediction of the fixed income group of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) research department, there is still room for one or two interest rate cuts this year, and March to April is the next observation window. At the same time, all ministries and commissions have issued centralized policies to "stabilize growth" from multiple dimensions, such as supporting small and micro enterprises, promoting infrastructure investment, promoting consumption, developing digital economy and stabilizing foreign trade. After the strength of monetary policy, the focus of market attention shifted to the credit that supports demand. According to the forecast of the macro group of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) research department, the stock of social finance is expected to be + 10.3% year-on-year in January this year, and the growth rate is flat month on month; Structurally, it is estimated that the new RMB loans will be about 4 trillion yuan, slightly higher than that in the same period last year. The issuance scale of government bonds will be 800 billion yuan, an increase of about 560 billion yuan compared with the same period last year.
3) the local "two sessions" show that the trend of stabilizing the economy with investment is obvious and strong. according to the analysis of the "two sessions" reports of 26 provinces and cities published by the macro group of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) research department, "steady growth" has become one of the clear work focuses. First of all, the GDP growth targets for 2022 put forward by all localities are basically higher than their average growth rate in the past two years. The regional GDP that has published the government work report accounts for 87% of the national GDP (refer to the data in 2020). Based on this, it is estimated that the national GDP growth rate can be more than 5.5%. Secondly, all localities regard investment as an important starting point to achieve the growth target. 16 provinces have set investment growth targets, ranging from 6.5% to 10%, showing the trend of "infrastructure driven, manufacturing upgrading and real estate underpinning". Finally, under the background that the central government requires investment to be moderately advanced, it is expected that governments at all levels will also be more active this year to ensure a good start for investment in the first quarter
the "emotional bottom" is coming, and the high-level group collapses
The emotional catharsis induced by is coming to an end
1) the venting of market sentiment is the main reason for the amplification of short-term market fluctuations. since this year, the rapid adjustment of high-level holding stocks has induced investors to speed up and reduce their positions in "high cut low" trading. New energy vehicles / photovoltaic / semiconductor / military industry index and other theme sectors have generally decreased by more than 10% since 2022. The venting of emotions induced by trading factors increased the market volatility, leading to the main line confusion since January. In the current performance forecast window period, under the low market sentiment, the average increase of performance "pre Hi" companies in the two trading days after the disclosure of the forecast is only 0.4% / - 0.3%, while the average increase of "early warning" companies is - 1.7% / - 1.1% respectively. At the same time, the recent anxiety about the negative resonance of overseas stock markets and the expected performance has further accelerated the venting of market sentiment.
2) the impact of overseas market risks on China is limited to the emotional side, and the trend of global capital allocation of A-Shares is still clear. under the hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve and high inflation, overseas liquidity expectations continue to be suppressed. Recently, the yield of US bonds has risen sharply, and the 10-year yield once exceeded 1.88%. It has continued to suppress the high valuation of US stocks in the early stage, resulting in negative resonance in the global equity market. This year, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq have fallen by 7.7% and 12%. According to the judgment of the macro group of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) research department, under the benchmark situation, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates three times a year and start the table contraction in June. In this round of tightening cycle, taper's operation of completing, raising interest rates and table contraction may be more compact. However, the recent sustained and rapid inflow of northbound funds shows that this round of overseas stock market adjustment has no actual impact on the capital flow of a shares, and the main impact is limited to the emotional side. The increase in foreign capital's preference for RMB assets stems from the fact that China's market environment of "low inflation + leniency policy + reasonable equity valuation" in 2022 is still better than the combination of "high inflation + tight policy + high equity valuation" in European and American developed markets, and better than most emerging economies with high inflation and weak growth.
3) "emotional bottom" is coming, and the consensus on steady growth will become the key to boosting market sentiment. first, after the "policy bottom" is clear, the steady growth policy forms a joint force, and the financing bottom is confirmed to raise the fundamental expectation, which has become the basis of the "emotional bottom". Secondly, the tightening of overseas liquidity is expected to have no actual impact on the additional allocation of A-Shares by northbound funds, and the market related anxiety is expected to be gradually repaired.
Finally, the A-share market has passed the most panic point. The short-term adjustment deviates from both the trend of monetary easing and the fundamental trend supported by policy. The emotional catharsis induced by the disintegration of high-level group is coming to an end, and the "emotional bottom" is coming
the "market bottom" is gradually approaching, closely following the "Two Lows"
the main line welcomes the starting point of the market in the first half of the year
1) the end of investor sentiment venting is coming, and market funds will resume inflow. first, the bond market has taken the lead in forming the consensus of "wide money + wide credit". After the central bank cut interest rates more than expected, the yield of ten-year Treasury bonds further fell 9bps to 2.75% last week. In terms of credit bonds, urban investment and real estate bonds have also been significantly repaired in the short term. In terms of capital flow, foreign capital is actively carrying out the left layout. Since 2022, the northward capital has accumulated a net inflow of 42.8 billion yuan, and a significant net inflow of 29.2 billion yuan in the past week, mainly adding undervalued sectors dominated by large finance; Over the past two weeks, the application for redemption of public offering products has been relatively stable. According to the data of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) channel research, the weekly net redemption rate has basically remained at a low level of 4 ~ 5 ‰, and there has been no significant net redemption in the process of market decline. The inflow of long-term funds has resumed, the behavior of investors will become more rational, and the capital market will improve.
2) "emotional bottom" is coming, and "market bottom" is approaching. on the one hand, the "policy bottom" has been clear, and other relay policies are forming a joint force; On the other hand, the "emotional bottom" is coming, and the emotional release brought by the release of high-level holding stocks is coming to an end. We expect that as investors' confidence in steady growth policies and economic stabilization continues to strengthen, the consensus on the main line of steady growth will continue to improve, and their confidence and sentiment in the market will also be boosted; With the steady net inflow of funds restored, the "market bottom" is gradually approaching, and the venting of short-term market sentiment brings better buying points. It is suggested to meet the starting point of the market in the first half of the year.
3) closely follow the main line of "steady growth" and continue to layout high-quality blue chips around "two low positions". specifically includes: varieties whose fundamentals are still expected to be low, focusing on midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as complete vehicle , lithium battery cell , photovoltaic equipment and content consumption of tax-free and entertainment whose fundamentals are expected to be low; For the varieties whose valuations are still relatively low, it is recommended to pay attention to high-quality developers , building materials and household enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, Hong Kong stock Internet leaders after the impact of China stock market, and fine chemical enterprises with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materials.
