Over the past month, the leading companies represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) led the new energy vehicle sector down by about 20%, which seems to be stabilizing in recent days.
The conclusion is that the alarm has not been lifted, and the real risk may still be in the future.
Capital market meaning of singularity
To understand this round of decline, we must first learn to understand the singularity.
From the perspective of industrial development, the singularity means that a new technology or product has entered the accelerated penetration stage. Taking the large-scale process of smart phones and security cameras as a mirror, the penetration rate of 20% is the singularity.
In 2010, the penetration rate of smart phones reached 22% and exceeded 20% for the first time. In less than two years after that, the penetration rate of smart phones increased rapidly from 22% to more than 40%.
In 2012, the penetration rate of HD cameras reached 20%, and then the penetration curve accelerated, approaching 50% by 2014.
Singularity is the turning point of accelerating industrial development, but it has another meaning in the capital market.
The introduction period before the singularity is the "Davis double click" stage of double improvement of valuation and performance. After the singularity, the performance is still climbing at a high speed, but the valuation continues to fall.
Historical experience shows that the singularity is the ceiling of the valuation level in the whole industrial cycle.
Taking the four core companies of Apple industrial chain as an example, by the end of 2010, Goertek Inc(002241) , Shenzhen Everwin Precision Technology Co.Ltd(300115) , Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) , Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co.Ltd(000049) PE (TTM) reached 90x, 65x, 100x and 90x respectively. Since then, in less than half a year, the valuations of the four companies have decreased by 30% - 50%. By June 2011, the valuations of the four companies have decreased to about 50x, 40x, 65x and 35x respectively.
Generally speaking, there are two ways of valuation digestion: active and passive. The former refers to stock price correction and the latter refers to performance growth.
From the experience of Apple's industrial chain, although the performance of each company maintained a high growth level at that time, the market still chose to adjust the valuation level through stock price correction or sideways.
why must the valuation fall?
In fact, the reason is not complicated. The premise of overestimation is high growth rate. The introduction period starts from 0 and the profit base is low. Therefore, the performance growth rate is amazing. It often doubles or even doubles every year. Naturally, you can enjoy the overestimation. After a period of development, the absolute level of profit scale has increased significantly. Although the absolute profit is still increasing, the growth rate is bound to decline.
On the other hand, with the continuous advancement of the industry, new entrants are bound to increase, and intensified competition will weaken the profit-making effect, which is bound to reduce the profit space, Goertek Inc(002241) and Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co.Ltd(000049) are good examples.
New energy vehicles and smart phones are consistent in the underlying logic, so they have strong reference significance.
According to the latest data of the passenger Federation, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has increased to 22.6% in December 2021, which can basically confirm the arrival of the singularity.
Looking at the valuation level, the P / E ratios of core links such as power batteries, cathode materials and diaphragms in the industrial chain increased to 111x, 83x and 101x respectively, reaching the absolute high of the historical quantile, and the PE level of companies such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) even reached 200 times.
According to historical experience, the whole new energy vehicle industry chain has entered the stage of consumption and valuation. It is reasonable and expected to suffer this knife.
mean regression and consensus curse
In fact, even if investors do not understand the arrival of the singularity and the meaning of the capital market behind it, they should predict the approaching risk in advance only from the law of market operation.
The market tends to formal logic in the short term, that is, the trend operation after the formation of inertia, while the medium and long term often follow the dialectical logic, that is, mean regression.
The lesson from history is that once the market reaches a general consensus on a track or sector, the reversal may not be far away. Think of the chips in 2019 and the Baijiu market in 2020.
In 2019, chip stocks soared all the way under the logic of independent control and domestic substitution, and the P / E ratio of Semiconductor Index doubled in less than half a year. At that time, people were no less optimistic about chip stocks than today's new energy. However, after entering 2020, chip stocks ushered in a correction period of more than a year, the price earnings ratio (TTM) was directly halved, and the leading company Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) never recovered until 2021.
During this period, China's semiconductor industry is still booming. In 2020, the growth rate of mainland semiconductor industry will reach more than 30%; The logic of domestic substitution has never changed, and the localization rate of materials, equipment, manufacturing and other links has been increasing, but this still can not stop the decline of stock price, because in the long run, too high valuation is the "original sin".
In 2020, the agency chose to warm up in the Baijiu sector.
Managers of public funds have taken the lead in "buying drunk", pushing Baijiu to the peak of history. By the end of 2020, the PE (TTM) of the Baijiu liquor index was raised to over 70, to the highest level in history. The valuation level has doubled in one year, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by only about 20% in the same period.
As a result, they were killed directly after the lunar new year, and they didn't give them a chance to escape. In the first half of the year, Baijiu sector was killing, and even the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) with the highest prestige was defeated. The stock price fell from less than 2600 yuan to less than 1600 yuan. The life-saving straw that once brought excess returns to the organization has become a fatal rope to hang itself in the blink of an eye.
There is nothing new on Wall Street, Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co.Ltd(600663) .
In 2021, everyone regarded new energy as the eternal God again, and buying new energy stocks seemed to be an indisputable "right investment". I once heard the construction workers speak loudly after drinking at the roadside barbecue stall: the new energy vehicle sector can be hot for ten years.
In 2021, the CSI new energy vehicle index rose all the way, and the price earnings ratio (TTM) reached more than 170. It is obvious from the above figure that since August last year, although the index is still upward, the valuation level has been unilaterally downward.
This means that the industry has entered the stage of performance digestion and valuation, but the speed obviously did not meet market expectations. Therefore, after December, the new energy vehicle sector shifted to the full line adjustment.
beware of poor expectations
If it is only a routine adjustment of the valuation level, according to past experience, the risk can be basically released after a correction of 20% - 30%.
The problem now is that the new energy vehicle industry chain is facing new uncertainty.
In the introduction period, the market has a high tolerance for enterprise performance. Even if it occasionally fails to meet expectations, it will not be reflected in the stock price. Once it crosses the singularity and enters the high-speed growth period, the market's tolerance for profitability becomes very low, and the unexpected decline in profitability will lead to the accelerated decline of stock price. This has happened in Apple's industrial chain.
After 2012q2, Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) , Shenzhen Everwin Precision Technology Co.Ltd(300115) , Shenzhen Desay Battery Technology Co.Ltd(000049) and other companies disclosed their performance one after another. The interpretation given by the market was less than expected. Then, the stock price experienced an adjustment for 3-4 months, and the decline of relevant companies was about 30%. In contrast, the trend of Goertek Inc(002241) with expected performance is relatively stable.
In other words, for companies in the new energy vehicle industry chain, the top-down track investment stage has ended, and whether the future performance can meet expectations is an important reason to determine the stock price trend. At present, the situation is not optimistic.
Take the power battery, the core component of electric vehicles, as an example. Throughout 2021, the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain expanded wildly, and there has been a complete surplus at present.
According to the statistics before market value observation, by 2025, the capacity planning target of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will be close to 600gwh, and the capacity planning of Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , AVIC lithium battery and Byd Company Limited(002594) will be close to 300gwh, 250gwh and 200gwh respectively. In the first half of last year, honeycomb Energy announced its capacity target of 200gwh, but the latest news shows that this data has been increased to 600gwh, which is the third time that the company has raised its global capacity target in 2025.
It is roughly estimated that the production capacity of China's top power battery enterprises alone will exceed 2twh in 2025.
On the demand side, according to the calculation data given by the agency, by 2025, the demand for power batteries in China and the world will reach 500gwh and 1020gwh respectively.
This means that the capacity scale of only a few leading Chinese enterprises can reach twice the global demand in 2025. Last year, there was still a serious shortage of production, and there is a high probability that it will become a serious surplus in the next few years.
signs have emerged.
In 2021, both Tesla and Wei Xiaoli were stuck by the battery. Previously, a video of Shen NANPENG asking Zeng Yuqun spread on the Internet: "when production capacity is tight, Xiao Peng, ideal and Wei Lai all insist on batteries. How do you distribute them? Do you need to drink with you or go to Ningde office more times?"
It seems to be ridicule, but it really reflects the pride of the battery factory. In the era of fuel vehicles, the right to speak belongs to the vehicle manufacturer. The mode is cash on delivery, but Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) requires payment before production. The key is that when the production capacity is tight, even if the money is in place, it may not be able to deliver goods.
Now, this strong position has been significantly loosened.
According to media reports, Xiao Peng has decided to reduce the share of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and introduce AVIC lithium battery as a new supplier. Prior to this, the first supplier of GAC new energy has changed from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to AVIC lithium battery.
The weakening of the dominant position of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) not only represents the decentralization of the market pattern, but also indicates the intensification of industry competition. With the improvement of the capacity scale of second-line manufacturers, this fight may become more and more intense.
The same is true for upstream raw materials, such as lithium iron phosphate.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) in the previous research report, it is estimated that the global demand for lithium iron phosphate will reach 2.724 million tons in 2025. According to the latest statistics, by 2025, the planned total capacity of lithium iron phosphate in China alone has exceeded 5 million tons, almost twice the total market demand.
Another example is the diaphragm. According to the statistics of the battery network, the current and planned capacity of China TOP10 diaphragm company represented by Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) has exceeded 43.8 billion m2. According to the corresponding diaphragm demand of 1GWh lithium battery of about 15 million m2, these diaphragm capacity can meet the supporting demand of 2.92twh lithium battery and produce nearly 60 million electric vehicles.
Based on the current global sales of less than 80 million vehicles per year, according to the calculation that electric vehicles account for 50% in 2030, the global sales of electric vehicles will be only 40 million.
With the overall decline of the new energy vehicle sector reaching more than 20%, the short-term valuation risk has been effectively released, and the market also shows signs of stabilization, but this does not mean that you can read the bottom without brains.
When the production capacity of some links has been too high for the whole world to digest, the fierce price competition can not be avoided in theory, and these changes will be reflected in the stock price in advance.
