Event: on January 20, according to the statistics of the national energy administration, in 2021, China added about 53gw of grid connected installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation, leading the world for nine consecutive years. The cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation exceeded 300gw, of which about 29gw were distributed, accounting for about 55% of the total installed capacity. The new installed capacity of household photovoltaic power generation was about 21.59gw, and the installed capacity of household photovoltaic power generation in a single month in December reached 5.09gw, Chain growth of 77.62%.
In the past 21 years, the supply and demand of main and auxiliary materials were tight, the cost rose rapidly, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic was strong, and the distributed development was bright. 2021 is the first year of the 14th five year plan. Under the background of the shortage of main and auxiliary materials in the industrial chain and the rapid rise of costs, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic has strong toughness and has basically completed the target set at the beginning of the year.
Structurally, the proportion of new installed capacity of distributed PV has exceeded 50% for the first time in history. 21 years is the last year of household PV subsidy, and the phenomenon of rush installation of household PV is obvious. In addition, against the background of the rapid rise in costs, the yield of centralized photovoltaic projects has decreased, the advantages of distributed cost and flexibility have been highlighted, the whole county has promoted policies to stimulate the enthusiasm of enterprises to participate in the market, the diversification of business models has developed rapidly, and the distributed installed capacity has been increased rapidly.
Outlook: the next five years will be a period of rapid photovoltaic development, with opportunities and challenges coexisting under the goal of carbon neutralization at home and abroad. Under the goal of global carbon neutrality, renewable energy will usher in a period of rapid development in the next five years. IEA predicts that the global average new installed capacity of renewable energy will be 305gw-380gw from 2021 to 2026, an increase of nearly 58% – 100% over the past five years, of which photovoltaic new installed capacity will account for nearly 60%. In the era of parity, yield and policy support are the two pillars of the rapid development of photovoltaic in China and overseas. 1) The development trend of both centralized and distributed power stations in China is obvious. With the loose supply of main and auxiliary materials, the time of use tariff policies of all provinces have been implemented one after another, the yield of photoelectric stations has increased, and large base projects have been carried out in an orderly manner. The construction of centralized power stations will usher in a recovery period, and the cost advantage of distributed power stations is expected to maintain the growth momentum; 2) The rise in electricity prices in Europe and the United States has a stronger acceptance of the rise in the cost of photovoltaic installed systems. Countries continue to update active policies to support medium – and long-term demand growth. In the next 3-5 years, with the increase of global PV installed capacity and the further maturity of the industrial chain, we judge that in the future, the imbalance within the industrial chain will weaken and the profitability of all links will move towards balance. The main challenges to limit the growth of total PV installed capacity in China and overseas are different. China’s main challenges come from the allocation of new energy cost growth, The main uncertainty overseas comes from the policy changes brought about by countries’ determination to carbon neutrality under economic pressure.
Investment suggestions: the photovoltaic market is expected to usher in a big demand year in 2022 driven by the decline of raw material prices and policy support, and the industrial chain may face pattern differentiation and profit redistribution. It is recommended to focus on three main investment lines, 1) the main industrial chain. It is recommended that under the tight supply and demand of silicon, the profit is expected to maintain a high level of silicon leading Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) ; The recommendation is expected to be fully benefited from the tight competition pattern of silicon chips and usher in profit repair. The leading battery chip leader of n-type technology Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) ; Recommend component leaders Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , which are expected to fully benefit from the decline in the price of main and auxiliary materials and the improvement in the acceptance of the rate of return by terminal power station investors. It is recommended to pay attention to Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) ; 2) For the auxiliary industry chain, we recommend the adhesive film and heat field leader Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) with tight supply and demand and clear pattern; 3) For photovoltaic equipment, it is recommended to take the lead in the layout of n-technology and battery equipment leader Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) with the supply capacity of the whole line. It is recommended to pay attention to Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) .
Risk tips: PV installation is less than expected, cost reduction is less than expected, policy changes, macroeconomic downturn, etc.
